068
FXUS63 KICT 192031
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms producing damaging winds are possible along and
  west of a Lincoln-Pratt line this evening and tonight.

- Periodic rain chances are expected Saturday through Tuesday
  although storm coverage is likely to be hit-to-miss across the
  area.

- Temperatures are expected to be near or below average for this
  time of year over the next 5 days or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Analyzing the upper air pattern and water vapor satellite this
afternoon, broad upper troughing is present over the eastern CONUS
with embedded shortwave troughs across the Mississippi River Valley
and the northern/central plains. These ripples in the northwesterly
flow regime over the central plains should allow for periodic
chances of storms over the next few days.

The shortwave trough over the northern/central plains is helping to
trigger thunderstorm development across southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas as of 20Z this afternoon. Mesoanalysis suggests the
instability gradient is generally along and west of US 281, and
ongoing storms should produce strong cold pools and coalesce into a
line of storms that progress southward within this instability axis.
Effective shear around 30 to 40 knots should support at least some
organization of this MCS, at least until it runs out of instability.
The main concerns for Russell and Barton Counties (and surrounding
areas) will be straight line damaging winds up to 70 mph, but nickel
sized hail will also be possible as storms potentially pass through
the area.

The outflow boundary kicked out by storms across western Kansas will
continue south and east overnight, and some hit-or-miss showers or
isolated storms could move across the I-135 corridor as a result.
Additionally, the synoptic cold front will start to push into the
area Saturday morning, and further isolated showers and storms are
progged to accompany this as is moves south and east. By midday
Saturday, the front should be located along the Kansas Turnpike, and
diurnal heating and surface convergence may allow for slightly more
widespread thunderstorms development Saturday afternoon and evening.
Much of this activity could continue into the nighttime hours
Saturday night. A few strong storms could occur across the area on
Saturday with small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall
being the primary concerns. Regardless of thunderstorm development,
temperatures are still expected to be below average for this time of
year during the day on Saturday with temperatures in the 80s during
the afternoon hours.

The mid/upper low (which could be more of a sharp open trough) will
slide into the central plains during the latter part of the weekend
and into the beginning of next week, and additional hit-or-miss
storm chances are forecast Sunday through Tuesday as a result.
Chances each day will gradually shift eastward as the mid/upper
trough slowly departs the region. Below average temperatures are
also expected to continue with some locations struggling to reach 80
on Sunday and Monday. Rising 500 mb heights and warmer mid-level
temperatures should help to reduce rain chances and support warmer
temperatures during the middle and latter portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
The main concern remains with thunderstorm chances after 00Z at
mainly RSL and GBD. Latest short range models have slowed with
arrival times at each site and have adjusted accordingly.
Confidence remains quite low at the remaining sites for
thunderstorm impacts and have held a PROB30 group at HUT and SLN
for the slight potential for convection after 08Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRB