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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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118 FXUS64 KHUN 102334 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 634 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure stacked in the low/mid levels with more zonal flow into the upper levels will generally be in place overnight tonight. North winds veering slightly more northeasterly through sunrise will continue to usher in a cooler airmass overnight, with no rain chances. So a question for tonight - will we drop below 60 deg? Looking at the HREF ensemble probabilities, the best chance (greater than 50%) to see sub 60 temps will be our S. Middle TN counties and far northern half of Lauderdale Co through Madison Co. While no impacts are expected from this temp drop, it will continue to be a nice reprieve from previous Summertime min temps. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A stacked ridge off the surface will become more pronounced over the SE US with a eastward shift of the upper ridge. Near zero rain chances will persist through Monday with this subsidence in place. At best, we`ll see a slight increase in cloud cover and overall humidity compared to the past couple of days by Monday as higher precipitable water values and a very weak shortwave will advect over the CWA from the west. Temps will continue to run cooler and drier than normal, for early August, through tomorrow but will begin to gradually increase by Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The long term period will be categorized by the slow eastward shift of an upper trough/high centered over the Great Plains, and will result in warming temperatures and increasing moisture through the week. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s each day, while dewpoints rise from the upper 60s to the low to mid 70s by the end of the work week. This will bring afternoon heat indices close to or above the 100 degree mark each day, and Heat Advisories may be needed during the mid-week period. With northwest flow anchored aloft, the Tennessee Valley may be clipped by a few shortwaves resulting in increasing chances (20-40%) for showers and storms Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s/mid 70s each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both KMSL and KHSV thru the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barron SHORT TERM....Barron LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...12