626
FXUS64 KHUN 070728
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
228 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A 5h/8h trough axis and associated cold front from the eastern
Corn Belt into the Ozarks and Red River Valley will slowly slide
east into the lower OH and mid MS Valley today. The trough and
front will produce fairly widespread showers and thunderstorm
today well to our northwest. A weaker sheared vorticity axis
located further southeast from middle TN through northwest AL into
MS will serve as a potential trigger for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly across northwest
AL into middle TN. Afternoon highs will reach 90-95 in valley
areas (upper 80s atop the higher plateau areas). The heating will
result in steep low level lapse rates and promote brief gusty
winds of 30 to 40 mph in the stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

With a loss of daytime heating and resultant instability,
convection that forms should dissipate as we go into Monday
evening. With a wetter ground from somewhat better coverage of
rainfall, fog formation appears more probable Mon night with
light winds and mostly clear skies forecast.

Weak upper ridging that has been helping control the area`s
sensible weather the past few days should continue to weaken and
shift to over the western Atlantic basin over Bermuda, and another
upper ridge over the Desert SW and northern Mexico. Upper level
troughing will become more pronounced over the eastern Lower-48,
as an upper level low moves from Alberta/Saskatchewan to the Great
Lakes region towards the middle of the week. Lower heights
produced by an amplifying trough will produce cooler upper levels;
hence higher overall instability, and greater chances of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances on Tue
should rise to around 70 percent and 80 percent Wed. Precipitable
water amounts in the regional atmosphere in the ~1.5 to 1.7" range
Tue will increase to ~1.7 to 2" on Wed. This could result in
locally heavy rainfall becoming an issue. Some storms in these
high moisture laden environments can become prolific lightning
producers.

Before showers become more of an issue, one very warm to hot day
is forecast Tue with highs rising into the lower 90s. Heat indices
could rise into the upper 90s to 105 degrees Tue afternoon thanks
to higher relative humidity values and very warm temps. If areal
coverage of the higher end of this heat increases, we cannot rule
out a future Heat Advisory. It should be a bit "cooler" Wed with
highs around 90. Lows Mon-Tue night should range in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Unsettled weather is expected into the upcoming weekend, as a
moisture laden environment persists, and strong July heating
makes for higher daytime instabilities and brings high chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Average precipitable water amounts
into the ~2 inches range will bring a risk for more heavy
rainfall. It is too far out to determine which area(s) could be
impacted by heavy rainfall at this time. But there is a reasonable
possibility that area creeks, streams, rivers, and lakes could
experience rises in water levels late this week and in during the
weekend. Please stay tuned to future forecasts on this potential.
And as noted above, storms in these environments can be
electrically active, with lightning posing a danger.

With more clouds and higher rain chances, high temperatures should
be a tad milder in the mid 80s to around 90 Thursday and Friday.
The NBM further out has highs a bit warmer from the upper 80s to
lower 90s, matching with somewhat lower rain chances. Overnight
lows in the long term should range in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Patchy BR with visibility of 3-5SM is expected from 08-12Z.
Outside of a very low chance of SHRA or TSRA after 18Z,
prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Confidence is too low to include in the TAFs this update.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17