956
FXUS64 KHUN 111105 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
605 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Zonal flow aloft, along with surface high pressure, will keep
another day of no rain chances and nice weather in the forecast.
Dew points are expected to dip into the 50s today, with highs
topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Some spots over far northeast
Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee may see cooler high
temperatures, in the lower 80s. Overall, no impactful weather of
note and it`ll be a nice day to end the weekend. Enjoy!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

After a couple days of pleasant and dry weather, a pattern change
is on the way. Northwest flow will develop aloft as an upper
ridge nudges eastward over the ArkLaMiss region through Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will maintain its hold until a surface
front, associated with a low pressure system over the central
Plains, moves northeast over the ArkLaMiss on Tuesday and towards
the Tennessee Valley through midweek. Overall, expect a warming
trend through Tuesday and more muggy conditions by Tuesday night,
with low shower and storm chances (10-20%) returning to the region
Tuesday night as well. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around
90 degrees are forecast on Monday but will warm into the lower
90s for most locations on Tuesday. Lows will follow a similar
pattern, beginning in the lower to mid 60s tonight and increasing
into upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Some good news for the long term period is that the forecast has
trended slightly cooler, and it looks less likely that Heat
Advisory conditions will be met during the mid to late week
timeframe. By Wednesday, a weak upper wave will track across the
Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South with an upper level high
situated just to our west. This will lead to an increase in
tropical moisture, resulting in more cloud cover and a low chance
(20-30%) for showers/storms during the afternoon. This will help
keep highs limited to the upper 80s/lower 90s and although sfc
dewpoints climb into the 70s, afternoon heat indices should stay
below the 100 degree mark. Northwest flow will continue to keep
low to medium chances (20-40%) for showers/storms in the forecast
through Saturday, with daily highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. As
dewpoints increase late in the week, heat indices may exceed the
100 degree mark, but for low look to top below Heat Advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. This will be something to watch in future
updates, as even small shifts in the position of the upper ridge
could increase the potential for dangerous heat or stronger
thunderstorm activity. Overnight lows will be near the low to mid
70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, with no rain
forecast. Northerly winds between 5-10 knots today will decrease
to around 5 knots or less this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26