490
FXUS64 KHUN 090514
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

General showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the
area supported by our moist and unstable airmass. Without any
significant forcing, the loss of daytime heating will wane storms
through around midnight, thereafter mostly dry conditions will
prevail. Given the wet ground, high humidity, and calm conditions
forecast overnight, fog will be possible early tomorrow morning.
Best chances for fog will be along waterways and in sheltered
valleys.

Any fog that does form will dissipate as the sun rise and temps
begin to heat up. Wednesday will offer a rinse and repeat of the
previous two days as we remain sandwiched between troughing to
our NNE and ridging to our SSE. Without any significant changes
to the environment, scattered showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible tomorrow afternoon. High PWATS near 2" paired with a
few thousand J/KG of CAPE will make torrential rainfall possible
with any storm tomorrow. If storms remain stationary or move over
the same area this could lead to localized flooding concerns. This
threat will be mainly driven by outflow boundary/storm
interactions. Likewise, inverted V model soundings suggest a
damaging wind threat with some of the stronger storms. The
numerous afternoon storms will limit our highs to the low 90s,
making for an ever so slightly cooler afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The short term forecast will remain largely the same as the near
term forecast we remain between troughing to our north and ridging
to our south for the majority of the forecast period. Storms on
Wednesday night will die off with the loss of daytime heating with
fog again being possible. Thursday and Friday will possess many
of the same environmental perimeters as Wednesday making scattered
showers and general thunderstorms possible both afternoons. PWATS
will remain near 2", A few thousand J/KG of CAPE will be present,
and inverted V sounding are likely. Thus, strongest storms will
be capable of efficient rainfall that could lead to localized
flooding and damaging winds. Without any significant large scale
forcing, a widespread severe threat is not anticipated. Rather,
storm intensity and duration will be driven by boundary
interaction which could lead to a few stronger storms.

One benefit of the higher rain chances each afternoon is that high
temps will be limited to the upper 80s, making for slightly cooler
daytime conditions. Any storms that do develop will again wain
with the loss of daytime heating. Calm winds each high will
support fog with best chances along sheltered valleys and
waterways.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Through the long term forecast, high pressure at the surface and
aloft will retrograde over the FL Peninsula and into the SE.
While afternoon rain chances will generally decrease in the
presence of high pressure, the SSE flow will maintain our moist
and humid airmass will inhibit their complete and total exodus.
Thus, medium chances (40-60%) for scattered rain and storms will
remain in the forecast each afternoon. Another byproduct of high
pressure influence will be a small warming trend through the long
term allowing temps to warm from the high 80s to low to mid 90s by
the mid week. With dew points remaining in the 70s, we may be
flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria by this time next week. We
will keep a close eye on this forecast trend should temps warrant
the issuance of any heat products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at both
terminals. However, have included a TEMPO early Wednesday morning
due to MVFR fog that may develop around daybreak. SHRA/TSRA will
also redevelop again on Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Have included a PROB30 to address the potential for
localized MVFR conditions due to reduced visibilities and
ceilings.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24