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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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322 FXUS64 KHUN 120455 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 WNW flow of 20-30 knots will persist across the local forecast area overnight, as we will remain along the northeastern edge of a 500-mb high centered across north TX. Scattered-broken high-level clouds will spread southeastward for much of the night in this regime, and as a remnant MCV (originating from convection earlier today across eastern OK/western AR) shifts southeastward into north-central AL by sunrise. At the surface, light NNE flow this evening will become light/variable during the early morning hours as a ridge builds further eastward into the Central OH Valley, but the combination of clouds and slightly higher dewpoints will yield warmer overnight lows in the 62-66F range. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 As alluded to above, a gradual warming trend will develop heading into the new work week, as high pressure begins to gradually move east across the TN/OH Valley regions. An upper ridge pattern will also build over the Plains states Mon before drifting into parts of the western/central Gulf states Tue. These features will result in afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s/near 90F on Mon, before highs trend more in the lower/mid 90s Tue. Increasing Gulf moisture will also translate into lows falling more into the mid 60s/near 70F both Mon/Tue nights. With the upper ridge axis moving into parts of the Gulf Coast region, a slightly more active NW flow regime will develop across the Mid South/TN Valley areas Tue night. This will allow low chances (around 20%) for showers/tstms to return to the forecast Tue night, mainly for areas along/north of the TN River. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Some good news for the long term period is that the forecast has trended slightly cooler, and it looks less likely that Heat Advisory conditions will be met during the mid to late week timeframe. By Wednesday, a weak upper wave will track across the Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South with an upper level high situated just to our west. This will lead to an increase in tropical moisture, resulting in more cloud cover and a low chance (20-30%) for showers/storms during the afternoon. This will help keep highs limited to the upper 80s/lower 90s and although sfc dewpoints climb into the 70s, afternoon heat indices should stay below the 100 degree mark. Northwest flow will continue to keep low to medium chances (20-40%) for showers/storms in the forecast through Saturday, with daily highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. As dewpoints increase late in the week, heat indices may exceed the 100 degree mark, but for low look to top below Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. This will be something to watch in future updates, as even small shifts in the position of the upper ridge could increase the potential for dangerous heat or stronger thunderstorm activity. Overnight lows will be near the low to mid 70s each night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals for the duration of the valid TAF period, with current IR satellite data suggesting that a sct-bkn coverage of mid and high-lvl clouds can be expected thru late Monday morning. Although partial clearing may occur tomorrow aftn, high clouds will maintain a presence thru 13/6Z and should inhibit development of BR/FG at the end of the period. Lgt NE sfc flow may briefly become lgt/vrbl prior to sunrise, before a NW wind of 5-10 kts develops by 16Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD