322
FXUS64 KHUN 120455
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

WNW flow of 20-30 knots will persist across the local forecast
area overnight, as we will remain along the northeastern edge of a
500-mb high centered across north TX. Scattered-broken high-level
clouds will spread southeastward for much of the night in this
regime, and as a remnant MCV (originating from convection earlier
today across eastern OK/western AR) shifts southeastward into
north-central AL by sunrise. At the surface, light NNE flow this
evening will become light/variable during the early morning hours
as a ridge builds further eastward into the Central OH Valley, but
the combination of clouds and slightly higher dewpoints will
yield warmer overnight lows in the 62-66F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

As alluded to above, a gradual warming trend will develop heading
into the new work week, as high pressure begins to gradually move
east across the TN/OH Valley regions. An upper ridge pattern will
also build over the Plains states Mon before drifting into parts
of the western/central Gulf states Tue. These features will result
in afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s/near 90F on Mon,
before highs trend more in the lower/mid 90s Tue. Increasing Gulf
moisture will also translate into lows falling more into the mid
60s/near 70F both Mon/Tue nights. With the upper ridge axis moving
into parts of the Gulf Coast region, a slightly more active NW
flow regime will develop across the Mid South/TN Valley areas Tue
night. This will allow low chances (around 20%) for showers/tstms
to return to the forecast Tue night, mainly for areas along/north
of the TN River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Some good news for the long term period is that the forecast has
trended slightly cooler, and it looks less likely that Heat
Advisory conditions will be met during the mid to late week
timeframe. By Wednesday, a weak upper wave will track across the
Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South with an upper level high
situated just to our west. This will lead to an increase in
tropical moisture, resulting in more cloud cover and a low chance
(20-30%) for showers/storms during the afternoon. This will help
keep highs limited to the upper 80s/lower 90s and although sfc
dewpoints climb into the 70s, afternoon heat indices should stay
below the 100 degree mark. Northwest flow will continue to keep
low to medium chances (20-40%) for showers/storms in the forecast
through Saturday, with daily highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. As
dewpoints increase late in the week, heat indices may exceed the
100 degree mark, but for low look to top below Heat Advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. This will be something to watch in future
updates, as even small shifts in the position of the upper ridge
could increase the potential for dangerous heat or stronger
thunderstorm activity. Overnight lows will be near the low to mid
70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals for the
duration of the valid TAF period, with current IR satellite data
suggesting that a sct-bkn coverage of mid and high-lvl clouds can
be expected thru late Monday morning. Although partial clearing
may occur tomorrow aftn, high clouds will maintain a presence thru
13/6Z and should inhibit development of BR/FG at the end of the
period. Lgt NE sfc flow may briefly become lgt/vrbl prior to
sunrise, before a NW wind of 5-10 kts develops by 16Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD