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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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042 FXUS64 KHUN 141432 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 932 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Surface analysis this morning shows a stalled boundary well to our south along the northern Gulf coast with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region. Pressure gradient is fairly board today so expecting generally light to variable winds, but any predominate winds should be more easterly. Additionally, we`ll bid farewell to our drier mass today and return to a more typical August-like feeling outside. PW have increased from the west and our dew points look to increase to around 70 deg today. Additionally, with some excess moisture, we`ll also see a return of rain chances across the area. Currently we`re looking at a slight to medium chance (20-40 percent) of showers and storms this afternoon across the area today. Otherwise, no major impact or updates to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Expect drier air to prevail through the overnight hours as high pressure centered near Virginia steers a more continental airmass into the area. This influence will gradually degrade over time, as the upper ridge continues to shift east through the second half of the work week and lower level winds begin to advect a more tropical airmass into the lower MS River Valley and into the local area. These chances will be slow and subtle, primarily felt in the form of heat on Thursday, as afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 90s and heat indices rise to the 98-105 range. The current forecast shows the chance of reach Heat Advisory criteria is very limited, so no headlines are planned at this time. Regardless, a moderate HeatRisk will be in place for areas along and west of I-65, signaling caution to those especially susceptible to the heat or those without proper cooling means. Will maintain low chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide Thursday afternoon. Even hotter conditions are forecast for Friday, as dewpoints continue to climb ahead of a cold front extending south through the OH River Valley. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in heat indices in the 105-107 range and will likely lead to a Heat Advisory in future forecast updates if current trends hold. This also brings portions of north central and northwest AL into the major category of the NWS HeatRisk, highlighting danger to those without adequate cooling or hydration. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the week, so keep this in mind especially when making any outdoor plans. Medium chances (40-60%) for showers/storms will also exist Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Guidance indicates that there could be a favorable combination of instability and shear to warrant at least a low end severe risk, so will also keep our eyes on this as we head into Friday and Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper shortwave trough is shown to traverse the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to begin the long term. At the surface, anticipating the passage of a cold front overnight on Saturday, with high pressure moving into the region through early next week. There are some discrepancies with regards to the evolution of the upper trough (how far south the trough digs) and how quickly it moves east through the weekend and into early next week. This would affect how much the upper ridge to the west pushes into the Southeast. A drier forecast is anticipated with a more eastward nudge of the ridge. Otherwise, we`d be more under the influence of northwest flow aloft, which would be conducive for potential MCS activity (increased chances for showers/storms). Overall, we`ll continue to monitor model trends, but the forecast currently calls for low to medium chances (20-45%) of showers and storms on Saturday ahead of the cold front, with some low chances (20-30%) of showers and storms lingering into Sunday. We`ll need to keep an eye on Saturday, as models indicate that there will be sufficient instability and increasing bulk shear from the afternoon into the evening (ahead of the cold front) for stronger storm development. At this point, drier weather is then expected to take hold for early next week. Highs will generally hover between the upper 80s to lower 90s each day, with lows decreasing into the mid to upper 60s by Sunday night. The warmest day of the long term will be Saturday, as moisture remains elevated (dew points in the lower to mid 70s) for most locations during the day. While Heat Advisory criteria is not likely to be reached, it`ll still be warm. Heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 102 degrees and NWS HeatRisk outlooks our local area in a minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness. Ultimately, please make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans next Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with the exception of of few showers that may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions. Confidence in rain is higher for the KMSL TAF, so have covered this by a PROB30 group from 12-14z. Amendments may be needed in case showers extend further east to the KHSV terminal or if rain persist longer than the early morning hours. Low chances (20-30%) for additional showers and thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light and variable today. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barron SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...25