042
FXUS64 KHUN 141432
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
932 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Surface analysis this morning shows a stalled boundary well to our
south along the northern Gulf coast with high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes Region. Pressure gradient is fairly board
today so expecting generally light to variable winds, but any
predominate winds should be more easterly. Additionally, we`ll
bid farewell to our drier mass today and return to a more typical
August-like feeling outside. PW have increased from the west and
our dew points look to increase to around 70 deg today.
Additionally, with some excess moisture, we`ll also see a return
of rain chances across the area. Currently we`re looking at a
slight to medium chance (20-40 percent) of showers and storms this
afternoon across the area today. Otherwise, no major impact or
updates to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Expect drier air to prevail through the overnight hours as high
pressure centered near Virginia steers a more continental airmass
into the area. This influence will gradually degrade over time, as
the upper ridge continues to shift east through the second half of
the work week and lower level winds begin to advect a more
tropical airmass into the lower MS River Valley and into the local
area. These chances will be slow and subtle, primarily felt in the
form of heat on Thursday, as afternoon highs reach the mid to
upper 90s and heat indices rise to the 98-105 range. The current
forecast shows the chance of reach Heat Advisory criteria is very
limited, so no headlines are planned at this time. Regardless, a
moderate HeatRisk will be in place for areas along and west of
I-65, signaling caution to those especially susceptible to the
heat or those without proper cooling means. Will maintain low
chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide Thursday
afternoon.

Even hotter conditions are forecast for Friday, as dewpoints
continue to climb ahead of a cold front extending south through
the OH River Valley. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with
dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in heat indices in the
105-107 range and will likely lead to a Heat Advisory in future
forecast updates if current trends hold. This also brings portions
of north central and northwest AL into the major category of the
NWS HeatRisk, highlighting danger to those without adequate
cooling or hydration. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the
week, so keep this in mind especially when making any outdoor
plans. Medium chances (40-60%) for showers/storms will also exist
Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Guidance indicates that there could be a favorable
combination of instability and shear to warrant at least a low end
severe risk, so will also keep our eyes on this as we head into
Friday and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper shortwave trough is shown to traverse the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys to begin the long term. At the surface,
anticipating the passage of a cold front overnight on Saturday, with
high pressure moving into the region through early next week. There
are some discrepancies with regards to the evolution of the upper
trough (how far south the trough digs) and how quickly it moves east
through the weekend and into early next week. This would affect how
much the upper ridge to the west pushes into the Southeast. A drier
forecast is anticipated with a more eastward nudge of the ridge.
Otherwise, we`d be more under the influence of northwest flow aloft,
which would be conducive for potential MCS activity (increased
chances for showers/storms). Overall, we`ll continue to monitor model
trends, but the forecast currently calls for low to medium chances
(20-45%) of showers and storms on Saturday ahead of the cold front,
with some low chances (20-30%) of showers and storms lingering into
Sunday. We`ll need to keep an eye on Saturday, as models indicate
that there will be sufficient instability and increasing bulk shear
from the afternoon into the evening (ahead of the cold front) for
stronger storm development. At this point, drier weather is then
expected to take hold for early next week.

Highs will generally hover between the upper 80s to lower 90s each
day, with lows decreasing into the mid to upper 60s by Sunday night.
The warmest day of the long term will be Saturday, as moisture
remains elevated (dew points in the lower to mid 70s) for most
locations during the day. While Heat Advisory criteria is not likely
to be reached, it`ll still be warm. Heat indices are expected to
reach the upper 90s to around 102 degrees and NWS HeatRisk outlooks
our local area in a minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness.
Ultimately, please make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with the exception of of
few showers that may bring brief periods of MVFR conditions.
Confidence in rain is higher for the KMSL TAF, so have covered
this by a PROB30 group from 12-14z. Amendments may be needed in
case showers extend further east to the KHSV terminal or if rain
persist longer than the early morning hours. Low chances (20-30%)
for additional showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
afternoon hours. Winds will remain light and variable today.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barron
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25