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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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902 FXUS64 KHUN 151736 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 816 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure to our SW will hold on for one more day yielding another afternoon of hot and humid conditions. The high pressure center will begin to deteriorate and retrograde as a low pressure trough pushes through the Great Lakes region. Aloft, this will introduce NW flow slowly throughout the day signaling a pattern switch that will become more apparent through the first half of the weekend (see short term forecast). At the surface, the only impact for the remainder of today will be a low chances of showers and thunderstorms on the NE periphery of lingering high pressure in NE AL. Any showers that do develop will be diurnally driven meaning they will likely be scattered in nature and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. The lingering high pressure will also support heat indices from the 94-104 degree range. This is just below advisory criteria but still warrants the same sun and heat safety cautions for those partaking in outdoor activities. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Over the course of the short term period, the northern stream trough and relate surface cyclone (discussed in the near term section) will spread southeastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Lower Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon/evening, with WSW flow in the low-levels maintaining a warm and increasingly moist airmass across the TN Valley, as we will remain south of the trailing cold front (at least through Sunday morning). Latest convection-allowing guidance suggests that clusters of thunderstorms will develop very late this afternoon both in the vicinity of a prefrontal confluence axis extending from southern MO into OK, as well as further north (in the vicinity of Kansas City). Although this activity may have a tendency to grow into a broader southeastward-moving MCS early Friday morning, it may only reach western and perhaps northern portions of Middle TN before dissipating at the peak of the nocturnal cooling cycle. Redevelopment of thunderstorms in the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary across our region early Friday afternoon appears a more likely scenario at this point, and some of this activity could be strong-marginally severe given the combination of mid- level WNW flow of 15-25 knots, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Prior to the initiation of convection, temps in the l-m 90s and dewpoints in the l-m 70s will yield apparent temps of 100-105F. Additional impacts from MCSs are anticipated on Friday night, but genesis regions are unclear at this point as some global models suggest redevelopment of storms across Middle TN, while others indicate the formation of a broader cluster of storms across eastern KS/western MO. Regardless of which scenario materializes, storms will be tracking east-southeastward, and we will maintain a medium-high (40-60%) POP through the evening hours. Conditions will become more favorable for organized severe thunderstorms during the day on Saturday, as WNW winds aloft strengthen to 30-40 knots along with even higher CAPE values during the afternoon. Although confidence in timing and spatial extent of thunderstorm coverage decreases considerably at this time range, we will maintain a medium-high (50-60%) chance for storms during the afternoon, with most models suggesting redevelopment of convection along another remnant outflow boundary. A final band of showers and thunderstorms may shift southward through the region early Sunday morning in conjunction with the cold front, but convective overturning by this point will reduce the risk for severe winds/hail. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper trough centered just to our east will continue to dig south through the second half of the weekend, and will lead to a cooler, drier pattern to start the work week. Will keep low chances (20-30%) for showers/storms Sunday with the cold front expected to push south through the area Sunday afternoon/evening. By then, expect the better strong/severe thunderstorm environment to be to our south where the axis of better moisture lies. Dry weather will return by late Sunday, and northerly flow will begin to advect cooler temperatures into the area. The remainder of the long term forecast looks very nice for mid to late August, with daily highs in the 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. High pressure will help us maintain a dry forecast through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF period. After sunrise tomorrow winds will shift from SE to SW with a slight increase in winds speed to around 6 KTS. There is a low chance of rain and storms from 12-18Z tomorrow however confidence was too low to include in the TAF. In confidence increases rain and thunder will be added to the TAF during additional issuances. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RAD