Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
902 FXUS64 KHGX 061824 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 124 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through the end of the week. - Locally heavy downpours the primary concern. - Pattern may turn hotter and drier by week`s end. But signals are mixed regarding this pattern change. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are popping up on radar this afternoon. We suspect this shower/thunderstorm activity to continue through the remainder of the afternoon, before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Meanwhile, a mid/upper trough continues its slow westward trek across the Gulf. We think the trough will be close enough to our region on Monday to increase large scale lift, increasing the chance and coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers may pop up near the coast as early as the predawn hours tomorrow morning. Best chance of showers/storms is expected to be near the sea breeze boundary late morning into the afternoon. Synoptic lift peaks on Tuesday into Wednesday, enhancing the chance/coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This is a little different than how things looked yesterday when Wednesday appeared drier. But recent trends suggest this system will remain with us into Wednesday and possibly even Thursday. In addition, a trough digging into the Midwest may extend down to the Arklatex region, delaying the onset of suppressive ridging that long range models insist will eventually build over our area, bringing lower rain chances and higher temperatures. For now, we are keeping daily shower/thunderstorms in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon highs average in the low 90s earlier in the week, rising to the mid 90s late in the week. Not every community will received rain every day. But those that do could experience heavy downpours. ECMWF deterministic / ensemble data suggest rising PWATs on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. GFS deterministic does as well but is less aggressive with PWATs, while the GFS ensembles are a more mixed. PWAT levels will be informative regarding which days have the higher risk of localized flooding. So we`ll be watching those moisture levels carefully. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Isolated to widely scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Most TAFs with a precip mention only warranted VCSH due to the expected low coverage. But the radar will be monitored closely for potential amendments. Best chance of shra/tsra occurring is near CLL, where shra has already occurred. Any shra/tsra will diminish this evening. MVFR conditions possible in the morning near CLL. Coastal shra also possible by dawn. Winds generally remain south to southeast through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 This week features a continuation of daily shower and thunderstorm chances. We also expect a continuation of the light to moderate onshore flow and low seas regime through about mid week. However, winds and swell may increase as we head towards the end of the week. Current forecast showing winds and seas reaching caution flag levels and possibly approaching Small Craft criteria by Thursday or Friday. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm that occurs over the Gulf waters and bays this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 0 30 Houston (IAH) 77 92 76 92 / 10 50 10 70 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 90 / 10 30 10 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self