872
FXUS64 KHGX 162041
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

It`s mid August, so the summer heat is in all its splendor. Mid to
upper lvl ridging to our west and surface high pressure to our east
will keep Southeast TX generally dry with very hot and humid
conditions. Persistent onshore flow, daytime heating and sea/bay
breezes will continue to develop and push inland showers and storms
this afternoon. Again, these showers should taper off by sunset.

A rinse and repeat forecast is anticipated for the weekend. Hot and
humid weather will keep afternoon heat index values from 105 to
112F, with isolated areas reaching up to 115F. Therefore, have
extended the Heat Advisory through Saturday evening. A few showers
are possible along the coast early in the morning. Showers and
storms become more isolated/scattered in the afternoon as the
sea/bay breeze develops over the coastal counties.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The mid/upper synoptic pattern becomes increasingly amplified on
Sunday and Monday. The aforementioned ridge to our west will build
further while a mid/upper trough digs southward over E CONUS. The
ridge will certainly be the dominate feature over Texas and will
likely help to crank the heat even higher as we go into the
Sunday-Monday time frame. Inland highs are expected to be in the
low 100s with mid/upper 90s near the coast (maybe low 90s on the
beach). Heat index values are expected to be in the 107F to 115F
range. Continued heat advisories are likely, with some areas
borderline Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

The ridge gradually weakens and backs westward during the
Tuesday-Thursday time frame while a surface backdoor cold front
approaches from the east. The easing of the cap may allow for
isolated to scattered seabreeze showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Global models have trended a day or two later regarding the timing
of the backdoor front. This front may bring a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms later next week. Inconsistency between
model runs doesn`t lend any confidence regarding whether or not we
can muster a meaningful drop in temperature. 12Z deterministic
ECMWF and its ensembles suggest that inland highs could drop into
the low 90s during the latter half of the week (technically a wee
bit cooler than normal). We can always dream. For now, our
forecast depicts only a slight cool down during the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame with inland afternoon highs in the mid/upper
90s, lower 90s near the coast, along with slight PoPs.

Self



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Isolated showers and storms will continue to move near/around
terminals generally from IAH coastward this afternoon. SSE to SSW
winds with speeds up to 12 knots are also expected along the
sea/bay breeze through early evening. Overall, VFR conditions
through the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Hot and generally dry conditions are expected over the next few
days. Winds and seas will generally be low. However, winds may
increase somewhat during the overnight and early morning hours.
Cannot rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and
again on Tuesday. The second half of next week may feature a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms depending on the
southern extent of a weakening frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  99  80 100 /   0  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  93  84  93 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self