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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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076 FXUS64 KHGX 161104 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Our rinse and repeat weather pattern of hot/humid conditions and afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through the short-term period. High pressure at the surface will continue to prevail, and with the center of the high pressure located to the east of the area, SE flow will continue to pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This increase in moisture combined with temperatures a touch warmer than yesterday`s temperatures will result in another day of heat indices in the 107-112F range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for SE Texas through this evening, and will likely be extended again with the afternoon forecast. A few locations may touch 113, which is the threshold for Excessive Heat Warning; however, have held off on issuing any kind of warning as sufficient mixing, the sea breeze, and any passing showers will mitigate rising heat indices. In any case, be mindful of dangerously hot conditions. Take frequent breaks, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Highest PoPs for today remain focused along and south of I-10 in association with the afternoon sea/bay breeze and diurnal heating. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The main headline for the long-term forecast period will continue to be the heat that has dominated the forecast for much of this month. A ridge will continue to build over the SW CONUS while a positively tilted trough will continue to deepen and edge its way into the eastern portion of the state. Unfortunately, the ridge remains the dominant feature of the two, thus continuing our streak of hot and humid weather. Inland highs will be around 100F with overnight lows in the 70s to 80s (not providing much relief from the daytime heat). Coastal areas will be in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will continue to be in the Advisory range (108-112F) for most of the area, and some locations may potentially reach into the Excessive Heat Warning Range early next week (113-115F). As mentioned in the previous forecast, PoPs increase on Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned deepening trough will dig southward from the NE CONUS early next week, bringing a back door cold front southward with it. This will result in below average temperatures for the eastern third of the CONUS. For us here in SE Texas this merely means an increased potential for rain in our eastern counties. The GFS and ECMWF are less aggressive this run with backing the front into the eastern portions of our CWA and have it approaching SE Texas as a weak boundary; however, maintained the previous PoPs for continuity given how far out in the forecast this is. As mentioned in the short-term forecast, continue to use caution with the ongoing dangerous heat. Stay hydrated, be mindful of pets` paws on hot pavement, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Adams && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the SE, variable at times. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible at sites south of I-10. Activity will taper off in the evening with loss of daytime heating. Adams && .MARINE... Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Generally weak winds and low seas will prevail through the forecast period. Winds may increase slightly during the overnight into the pre- dawn hours. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal boundary may approach from the northeast, bringing a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Adams && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 99 79 99 80 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 94 85 94 85 / 10 0 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Adams