Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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508
FXUS64 KHGX 062349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through the
  end of the week.

- Locally heavy downpours the primary concern.

- Pattern may turn hotter and drier by week`s end. But signals are
  mixed regarding this pattern change.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are popping up
on radar this afternoon. We suspect this shower/thunderstorm
activity to continue through the remainder of the afternoon,
before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating this evening.
Meanwhile, a mid/upper trough continues its slow westward trek
across the Gulf. We think the trough will be close enough to our
region on Monday to increase large scale lift, increasing the
chance and coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered showers may pop up near the coast as early
as the predawn hours tomorrow morning. Best chance of
showers/storms is expected to be near the sea breeze boundary
late morning into the afternoon. Synoptic lift peaks on Tuesday
into Wednesday, enhancing the chance/coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. This is a little different than how things looked
yesterday when Wednesday appeared drier. But recent trends
suggest this system will remain with us into Wednesday and
possibly even Thursday. In addition, a trough digging into the
Midwest may extend down to the Arklatex region, delaying the onset
of suppressive ridging that long range models insist will
eventually build over our area, bringing lower rain chances and
higher temperatures. For now, we are keeping daily
shower/thunderstorms in the forecast through the end of the week.
Afternoon highs average in the low 90s earlier in the week, rising
to the mid 90s late in the week.

Not every community will received rain every day. But those that
do could experience heavy downpours. ECMWF deterministic /
ensemble data suggest rising PWATs on Tuesday and especially
Wednesday. GFS deterministic does as well but is less aggressive
with PWATs, while the GFS ensembles are a more mixed. PWAT levels
will be informative regarding which days have the higher risk of
localized flooding. So we`ll be watching those moisture levels
carefully.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions prevailing with winds light with a southerly
component. MVFR CIGs will be possible overnight through morning
hours for CLL terminal. Another round of SHRA and TSRA possible
again tormorrow afternoon through the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

This week features a continuation of daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. We also expect a continuation of the light to moderate
onshore flow and low seas regime through about mid week. However,
winds and swell may increase as we head towards the end of the
week. Current forecast showing winds and seas reaching caution
flag levels and possibly approaching Small Craft criteria by
Thursday or Friday. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in
the vicinity of any thunderstorm that occurs over the Gulf waters
and bays this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  74  90 /  10  30   0  30
Houston (IAH)  77  92  76  92 /  10  50  10  70
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  82  90 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self