076
FXUS64 KHGX 161104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Our rinse and repeat weather pattern of hot/humid conditions and
afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through
the short-term period.

High pressure at the surface will continue to prevail, and with the
center of the high pressure located to the east of the area, SE flow
will continue to pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This
increase in moisture combined with temperatures a touch warmer than
yesterday`s temperatures will result in another day of heat indices
in the 107-112F range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for SE
Texas through this evening, and will likely be extended again with
the afternoon forecast. A few locations may touch 113, which is the
threshold for Excessive Heat Warning; however, have held off on
issuing any kind of warning as sufficient mixing, the sea breeze,
and any passing showers will mitigate rising heat indices. In any
case, be mindful of dangerously hot conditions. Take frequent
breaks, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest
part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!

Highest PoPs for today remain focused along and south of I-10 in
association with the afternoon sea/bay breeze and diurnal heating.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The main headline for the long-term forecast period will continue to
be the heat that has dominated the forecast for much of this month.
A ridge will continue to build over the SW CONUS while a positively
tilted trough will continue to deepen and edge its way into the
eastern portion of the state. Unfortunately, the ridge remains the
dominant feature of the two, thus continuing our streak of hot and
humid weather. Inland highs will be around 100F with overnight lows
in the 70s to 80s (not providing much relief from the daytime heat).
Coastal areas will be in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will
continue to be in the Advisory range (108-112F) for most of the
area, and some locations may potentially reach into the Excessive
Heat Warning Range early next week (113-115F).

As mentioned in the previous forecast, PoPs increase on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The aforementioned deepening trough will dig southward
from the NE CONUS early next week, bringing a back door cold front
southward with it. This will result in below average temperatures
for the eastern third of the CONUS. For us here in SE Texas this
merely means an increased potential for rain in our eastern
counties. The GFS and ECMWF are less aggressive this run with
backing the front into the eastern portions of our CWA and have it
approaching SE Texas as a weak boundary; however, maintained the
previous PoPs for continuity given how far out in the forecast this
is.

As mentioned in the short-term forecast, continue to use caution
with the ongoing dangerous heat. Stay hydrated, be mindful of pets`
paws on hot pavement, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the
SE, variable at times. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at sites south of I-10. Activity will taper off in the
evening with loss of daytime heating.

Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Generally weak winds and low seas will prevail through the
forecast period. Winds may increase slightly during the overnight
into the pre- dawn hours. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are
possible through Saturday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal
boundary may approach from the northeast, bringing a chance of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  99  79  99  80 /  20   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  94  85  94  85 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams