333
FXUS64 KHGX 152307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

TL;DR: Hot and humid weather continues with isolated/scattered
storms in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure centered to our east will remain in control,
resulting in warm and humid south to southwesterly flow. Showers and
storms currently developing and slowly moving across the coastal
counties should taper off by sunset.

A similar weather pattern is expected on Friday, with the only
difference that temperatures will be a few degrees hotter than
today. Temperatures in the upper 90s and sfc dewpoints generally in
the 70s will lead to dangerous heat index with values mainly up to
112F. Therefore, the Heat Advisory has been extended and is now in
effect through Friday evening. Diurnal heating and the sea/bay
breeze will once again produce showers and storms, generally along
and south of I-10.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The long term weather will be driven by an increasingly amplified
pattern with a building ridge centered over SW CONUS and a trough
digging southward over E CONUS. For the most part, this should
equate to a continuation of the hot and dry weather regime over SE
Texas since the ridge will be the most dominant of the two
features over our region. Inland afternoon high temperatures are
expected to average around 100 degrees with overnight lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Coastal areas are expected to be in the
low/mid 90s. As we all know, the humidity will make it feel hotter
than the actual temperature. Afternoon heat indices are expected
to peak in the 107 to 112 range. HOWEVER, there is an atmospheric
wild card that could result in higher rain chances and
potentially cooler temperatures. So let`s talk about wild cards!

When looking at our PoPs during the Saturday to Wednesday time
frame, you`ll notice some slight PoPs over our southern/coastal
counties on Saturday and more widespread slight PoPs on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Saturday`s PoPs are a function of potential
isolated showers/thunderstorms along the seabreeze boundary.
Tuesday-Wednesday PoPs are related to a potential backdoor cold
front. Our friends in E CONUS will have the pleasure of being
under the mid/upper trough. At the surface, a strong early season
cold front will plunge southward over the eastern third of the
country, bringing below average temperatures in its wake. The
current forecast calls for the western flank of the front to back
westward into eastern Texas, bringing a risk of showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, we continue to
predict a weak boundary that only amounts to isolated
showers/storms and little to no heat relief. However, recent runs
of the ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the GFS, have trended more
aggressive with the boundary as it backs into our region. If these
trends are a harbinger of what`s to come, then we will likely
have to increase rainfall chances and potentially decrease the
expected temperatures on Tuesday-Wednesday. We felt these recent
runs did not warrant a forecast change since the trend is new. But
it`s certainly something to monitor.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Storms will taper off early this evening. Light southwesterly
winds are expected overnight, becoming south to southeast Friday
afternoon with the sea breeze. Isolated patchy fog will be
possible at KCXO and KLBX during the early morning hours. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon hours.
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Relatively weak winds and low seas will prevail through the
forecast period. Winds may increase somewhat overnight into the
pre-dawn hours. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible
through Saturday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal boundary may
approach from the northeast, bringing a chance of isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  99  79  99 /   0  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  92  83  92 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self