090
FXUS64 KHGX 092100
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Will be issuing a brief Excessive Heat Warning for the rest of this
afternoon as portions of the CWA have reached criteria (HI >=113F).

Will also be extending the Heat Advisory for all of the CWA through
tomorrow evening.

So, with this pattern remaining in place, above normal temperatures
are going to persist through the weekend. Deep ridging from the mid
to upper levels along with the weak stationary front in the general
vicinity of SE TX will help to keep hot and humid conditions in the
forecast for tomorrow. Highs on Sat could be a bit "cooler"... only
ranging in the mid to upper 90s, but heat index values are going to
stay elevated (102-108F). Overnight lows (for both tonight and tom-
orrow night) will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Please continue to be mindful of heat safety. Drink plenty of water;
LOOK before you LOCK and try to avoid overexertion outdoors, especi-
ally during the hottest parts of the day (1-5PM). 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

You know the level in Mario Bros. where the Sun is chasing you while
you are just trying survive and make it to the next level?

...Yeah...so about this week...

The mid-level ridge is going to remain parked overhead through the
duration of the long-term period. This will continue to result in
above normal temperatures for the majority of Southeast Texas. Light
onshore flow will persist at the surface as we remain on the western
periphery of a surface high pressure centered over the Gulf of
Mexico.

Daytime highs will reach into the upper 90s with a few locations
reaching 100F. The combination of increasing temperatures and
humidity will result in high heat index values of 108-112F, with the
peak of heating expected Tuesday through the weekend. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed through the week next week. We will
continue to monitor for the potential for heat indices to reach the
Excessive Heat Warning criteria. In any case, it will be hot this
week with only slight chance of rain in the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday. This is a less than 30% chance and it is focused more along
the Coastal Plains and Barrier Islands. Continue to practice heat
safety by staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous activity during the
hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Pet owners, if
the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot
for your pets` paws.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period, but there could be some issues later this afternoon for NW/
W portions of the CWA. A weak almost stationary surface front along
with jet streak activity aloft could produce some isolated showers/
storms generally along and west of a line from Madisonville to Ang-
leton from 21Z-02Z if near-term models verify. There has not been a
whole lot of run-to-run consistency with these rain chances, so go-
ing to opt to only keep VCSH in for CLL mention at this time. Winds
will remain light NE (3-8kts) during the daytime hours...lighter to
calm and variable overnight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances remain
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  97  76  97 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  97  79  98 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  92  82  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>198.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ199-
     200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Adams