818
FXUS64 KHGX 090513
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Lingering rainbands from Beryl continue to brush across portions of
SE Texas. Thankfully, these rainbands are generally weaker in
nature, with lighter rainfall and moderate (but still weaker) wind
gusts. Beryl should continue northeasterly overnight, paving the way
for more benign weather. Please continue to heed all tropical storm
warnings until Beryl exists SE Texas.

On Tuesday, the trough over the Plains/Mississippi River valley will
continue further east, carrying the leftovers of Beryl with it.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge/high will develop over the Desert
southwest. Even behind Beryl, PWs are still sufficient for the
development of additional showers/storms as weak impulses pass
overhead. CAMs suggest that areas south of I-10 have the best shot
of getting rain Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, the majority of SE
Texas should remain dry. Despite the cooling brought by Beryl, 850mb
temperatures of 15-18C and clearer skies should still bring highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to mid
70s, and thus heat indices will be in the mid 90s to as high as 106
degrees. While conditions will be relatively cool for summertime,
extensive power outages caused by Hurricane Beryl have left millions
without proper cooling. In the days after the Houston Derecho, we
saw a spike in heat-related illnesses following the extensive power
outages across the metro area. Given these extenuating
circumstances, all of SE Texas will be under a Heat Advisory on
Tuesday. If you do not have access to AC/cooling due to power
outages, please take precautions now. Drink plenty of water, wear
loose fitting cloths, and avoid strenuous activities. Know the
signs and symptoms of heat related illnesses.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The Lone Star State will find itself between two building
mid/upper subtropical ridges of high pressure during the long
term. This will equate to seasonably hot and humid conditions,
with highs mostly in the low/mid 90s and lows predominantly in the
mid/upper 70s (around 80 at the coast, low 70s northern Piney
Woods). There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity that should mostly match the typical
diurnal patterns of the summer seas. The one potentially abnormal
thing about the long term is the prospect of continued power
outages. My expertise are not in power restoration prediction. But
additional heat advisories may be warranted access to A/C remains
lacking across our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Southwest winds gradually diminished this evening and will turn to the
northwest and north at around 5 to 7 knots during the day on Tuesday.
Watching some lower ceilings (around 900-1000 feet) N of UTS on satellite
and obs, but will keep that site VFR for now. The rest of the area should
have mostly cirrus to deal with on Tuesday with the exception of near
the coast (GLS) where some deeper moisture will linger and lead to possible
SHRA/TSRA development. Tuesday night-Wednesday morning currently looks
to stay VFR across the area with light and variable winds.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Strong winds, rough seas, and above normal water levels will
continue to gradually decline this evening and into the overnight.
By Tuesday and beyond, we expect mostly light to occasionally
moderate winds and low seas. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally higher
winds and waves will be possible within and near any thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  93  72  92 /  10  20   0  20
Houston (IAH)  75  93  74  92 /  10  30  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  80  88 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     TXZ214-313-338-438-439.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Self