698
FXUS64 KHGX 101016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Today is National Lazy Day, which works out perfectly because today
will be a fantastic day to stay curled up indoors in the AC and out
of the heat! Ridging aloft continues to prevail with mid level high
pressure continuing to sit overhead. With yesterday`s frontal
boundary now washed out a bit and sitting west of the I-45 corridor,
we`ll be able to mix out more efficiently during the afternoon hours
with some slightly drier air in place. This means that although air
temperatures will still be in the upper 90s for most of Southeast
TX, heat indices for most will only be in the 103-107F range. As a
result, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for most of the area.
Locations south of I-10 and west of I-45 will see heat indices in
the 107-109F range, so a Heat Advisory remains in effect for Fort
Bend/Brazoria Counties and counties westward. The latest high-res
model guidance shows some potential for isolated convection around
Matagorda Bay this afternoon, but with a subsidence inversion layer
aloft (~850-800mb) and 500mb heights around 594-596 dam...it`ll be
tough for much to develop.

The differences between Saturday and Sunday are subtle at best.
We`ll have slightly warmer 850mb temperatures (increasing from 19-
21C on Saturday to 20-22C on Sunday) and slightly drier air. That
roughly translates to temperatures being right about the same as
Saturday`s plus (north) or minus (coast) a degree. There is one
other thing...another frontal boundary backdoors in from the east to
far eastern portions of Southeast TX on Saturday night. This front
is not expected to reach far enough west to make it to the I-45
corridor, and it won`t do much other than reinforce the slightly
drier air already in place. It`ll allow for a few spots in the Piney
Woods to drop into the low 70s overnight, but the rest of us will be
stuck with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.

As heat indices continue to top out near the Heat Advisory criteria
( 108F), please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of
any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of
heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty
of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The mid/upper level ridge across the area and surface high pressure
off to our east will continue to be the main players in this long term
period. A majority of the area will be staying dry, but we will need
to watch for possible showers and/or thunderstorms (mainly south of
I-10) as weak disturbances/shortwaves try to round the base of the ridge.
The main concern will continue to be the above normal temperatures and
associated elevated heat index numbers. While daily high temperatures
peak in the upper 90s to around 100, heat advisories are clearly in
play with peak heat index values mainly in a 108-112 range. We will
also need to monitor for possible excessive heat warnings. We must emphasize
again...continue to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, avoiding
strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK! Pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for your pets` paws.  42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the TAF period with
the exception of intermittent MVFR visibilities at LBX due to
patchy fog this morning. Winds will be light and
northeasterly/easterly throughout the day. Along the coast, winds
will transition to southeasterly in the afternoon with the
seabreeze pushing ashore. Slight chance of afternoon convection
south of I-10 and west of I-45 in the afternoon, but coverage
looks to be sparse enough to forego any SH/TS mentions in this TAF
package.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances remain
low.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  98  79 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  83  92  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-227-235>237-
     335>337.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42