988
FXUS64 KHGX 110756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will either be just east of
Southeast TX or over far eastern Southeast TX throughout most of the
day. This front isn`t expected to make it as far west as the I-45
corridor, but it won`t do much anyway other than reinforce some
drier air that`s already in place. With PW values generally in the
1.7-1.9" range, we`ll remain below the 75th percentile (~2.04").
This means that even though we`ll have another day of high
temperatures in the upper 90s again, the relatively dry air in place
will keep heat indices in the 103-107F range. Mid-level high
pressure remains overhead with 500mb heights around 594 dam. Combine
the climatologically drier air in place with a subsidence inversion
layer aloft around 850mb, and it`s easy to see why today`s PoPs are
no higher than 10-15%. The best chances to see a rogue shower will
be south of I-10 and west of I-45.

Things will change a bit on Monday, and that change can be mainly
attributed to increasing moisture. PW values increase on Monday to
around 1.9-2.1"...and that`ll have impacts on both rain chances and
heat indices. Let`s talk about rain chances first. A shortwave looks
to sneak beneath the ridge on Monday afternoon, which is perfect
timing to combine with the seabreeze to help lift the increased
moisture. There will still be a subsidence inversion layer aloft,
but with an added source of lift and more moisture in place, some
isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop in the
afternoon. The best chances for seeing rain on Monday will be south
of I-10, but a few members of the 00Z CAMs show some convective
potential extending north of I-10 as well. Temperatures will be in
the upper 90s once again, but with increased moisture/humidity comes
increased heat indices. Heat indices on Monday will top out in the
106-110F range, so a Heat Advisory may be needed for some portions
of Southeast TX...and that might be the start of another Heat
Advisory streak (small spoiler for the long term).

As heat indices continue to top out near the Heat Advisory criteria
( 108F), please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of
any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of
heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty
of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

There will be some slight repositioning of both the mid/upper level
ridging across the area and the surface high pressure off to our east
through this period, but not significant enough to make a dent in our
mid-August summer heat. High temperatures each day will be in the upper
90s to around 100, and heat index values will be in a 107-113 range.
Cannot rule out possible showers/thunderstorms each day mainly near
and to the south of the I-10 corridor, associated with a sea breeze/bay
breeze combo and weak disturbances aloft, but a majority of the area
looks to stay dry, especially in the Wednesday through Saturday time
period. Heat Advisories will likely be needed, and Excessive Heat Warnings
will be possible.

It is well worth repeating...please continue to keep heat safety at
the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion),
drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mostly clear
skies. Light and variable winds are expected through sunrise,
then southeasterly winds around 7-10kt develop in the morning and
persist through the evening. Light and variable winds return after
sunset.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances
remain low. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  76  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  99  80  98  79 /  10   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  83  91  82 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...42