Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
634 FXUS64 KHGX 282354 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 654 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with the best chances along and south of I-10. - A plume of Saharan dust arrives after Sunday, potentially bringing hazy skies across SE TX. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Latest radar shows a less active afternoon with isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze. This is mainly due to the mid-level ridge, currently overhead, that is bringing a drier airmass across southeast TX with precipitable water values into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. Showers/storms are expected to end late this afternoon or early evening with the loss of daytime heating. An active weather pattern returns early Sunday as the atmospheric moisture content increases. An area of low pressure system located in the Bay Campeche/southwestern Gulf is progged to become a bit more organized, potentially becoming a tropical depression Sunday into Monday. While this system is expected to remain well south of our area, a plume of deep tropical moisture will surge northward into southeast TX during the period. As result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated on Sunday, becoming likely in the afternoon with the combination of daytime heating. The best chances for rain/storms are expected to be along and south of I-10 through the evening. However, uncertainty in coverage and intensity of showers/storms remains moderate to high given inconsistencies between Hi-Res solutions and deterministic models. One of the main reasons is due to the arrival of a plume of not moisture, but drier air. A layer of Saharan dust is progged to move through the region tonight into at least mid-week. While the thickness of this layer is not deep, some impacts in precipitation and temperatures could occur during this time frame. The remainder of the week looks warm with daily rain/storm chances but with less coverage than previous days. Mid-to-upper level ridge builds over the region through the week, bringing drier and slightly warmer conditions (though highs will remain near normal for this time of year). Hazy skies due to the Saharan dust will also prevail, at least through mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions ongoing, and expected to prevail through the period. SHRA/TS along the coast in the morning, spreading inland through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds will be possible in and around storms. Otherwise, winds generally out of the S/SE and light. Hazy conditions will be possible with incoming Saharan Dust; however, confidence is low on how concentrated the dust will be once it arrives, and how it will impact coverage of showers and storms during the day tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Light east to southeast winds continue across the Upper TX coast as the surface high remains in control to our east. Seas will also remain low, in the 2 to 4 ft range. A daily chance of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected each day. The best rain/storm chances return late tonight into late Sunday in response to a tropical wave moving across the southwestern Gulf/Bay Campeche. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day, ending in the evening. Building seas up to 6 ft can be expected through at least Monday. Light to occasional onshore winds and low seas are expected through the remainder of the week with a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through Sunday. The risk will increase to a high level on Monday and will generally persist through most of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 92 75 93 / 0 30 0 20 Houston (IAH) 76 89 76 92 / 10 80 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 20 70 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Adams MARINE...JM