065
FXUS64 KHGX 121106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There`s really no way to sugarcoat the forecast...because the sugar
would melt off fairly quickly anyway. The hot temperatures will
persist, but some sufficient rain chances return this afternoon due
to increasing moisture. Over the weekend, we`ve had drier air in
place which translated to lower heat indices and slim to no rain
chances. PW values climb up to 1.9-2.1" this afternoon, which is
around the 75th percentile (~2.03"). Combine that with a shortwave
sneaking in beneath the mid-level ridge and seabreeze interactions,
and we`ll have fairly decent conditions for isolated to scattered
showers/storms to develop. There will still be a subsidence
inversion layer aloft around 850-800mb to overcome, so convection
will still have a bit of a battle to get going. The higher chances
for rain will be near and south of I-10. The other side effect of
the elevated moisture will be elevated heat indices. Temperatures
will top out mainly in the upper 90s once again, but heat indices
are expected to peak in the 106-111F range especially for areas
along and south of I-10. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be in
effect from 12pm-7pm this afternoon for the southern portion of
Southeast TX.

Tuesday will pretty much be rinse and repeat, but those elevated
heat indices may work their way a bit further north. Another Heat
Advisory will be needed tomorrow, but the main question will be how
far north will it extend. Overnight temperatures will only drop into
the upper 70s to low 80s, so there won`t be much relief from the
heat at night. With heat indices around and/or above the criteria
for a Heat Advisory ( 108F) throughout the week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make
(especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses
(heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty of water to stay
hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear
sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS
LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

With surface high pressure off to our east, a warm onshore flow will
persist, and with ridging aloft remaining across the area, we will see
little change in our forecast. It will be hot with daily highs in the
upper 90s at the start of this period (Wednesday) and in the upper 90s
to the low 100s toward the end of the period (Saturday and Sunday).
Daily heat index values will be peaking in a 107-113 range resulting
in heat advisories and possible excessive heat warnings. Weak impulses/
disturbances occasionally rounding the base of the ridge in combination
with possible sea breeze boundaries could bring some rain to parts of
the area (mainly staying south of the I-10 corridor), but a majority
of Southeast Texas will stay dry.

It is worth repeating again this morning...continue to keep heat safety
at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion),
drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with the
exception of slightly decreased visibilities at CXO and LBX for
the next couple of hours. Winds will be light and southerly
initially and become southeasterly around 10-12 knots following
the passage of the seabreeze. Isolated showers/storms are possible
later this morning into the afternoon, but coverage will be
fairly spotty. Any convection that develops will dissipate
following sunset.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours,
winds may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain
chances remain low.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  77  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  98  79 /  20   0  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  91  83 /  20   0  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42