Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
933 FXUS64 KHGX 241837 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 - Hit-or-miss scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and Wednesday, before rain and storm chances slightly diminish through the end of the week. - Warm and humid conditions continue, though temperatures will remain near seasonal for late June standards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Mid to upper high pressure system remains in control across most of southeastern CONUS today. Southeast Texas is positioned in the southwestern edge of the ridge, meaning persistent east to southeasterly surface flow into the region. Surface flow will continue to surge Gulf moisture inland, resulting in PWs into the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range. Deep moisture, diurnal heating and surface boundaries (sea/bay breeze interaction) will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chances will be inland, and should gradually weaken by sunset with the loss of daytime heating. These are typical summer storms; however, a few of them could become strong with gusty winds up to 30-40 mph, small hail and/or heavy downpours. While most of this activity will end around sunset, isolated to scattered showers with a few storms will be possible in the evening and overnight hours, mainly south of I-10 and along the coast. This is primarily driven by a passing weak embedded inverted trough aloft from the east. Upper-lvl flow pattern does not change much across the region on Wednesday; other than a slight uptick in moisture. As result, summer- like convection are expected, this time beginning as early as daybreak throughout the day, i.e., coastal showers/storms in the morning, then developing further inland in the afternoon. A drier airmass filters in after Thursday thanks to the upper ridge that will move further to the west, increasing subsidence. This pattern will only support a few showers or storms, but overall, chances will remain low (isolated). The best rain chances over the coastal counties and waters. As we head into the weekend, an uptick in low to mid level moisture returns as a mid-level disturbance develops along the south/middle TX coast on Sunday. This system will bring increasing rain and storm chances going into the upcoming week, with the highest chances close to the coastal zones/counties. 850mb temperatures remain into the 15 to 20 degC in the next several days; suggesting highs mainly in the low to upper 90s. This is near seasonal for late June standards. Lows, on the other hand, will generally be in the low to mid 70s, keeping nights mild and muggy. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Coverage will be highest along the coast/south of I-10 through around Noon, then expand northwards through around sunset. Coverage is expected to be a bit higher today compared to the past few days, so have gone with TEMPOs of TS instead of PROB30s for the main hours of concern. While activity with end over land through the night, there will likely still be some isolated showers or even thunderstorms over the coastal waters possibly impacting GLS and LBX through the night. Additional showers and storms are expected through the day on Wednesday for most of the region. Otherwise, patchy fog this morning at CXO will dissipate within the next hour or so giving way to area-wide VFR conditions with SE winds around 6-10kts. Higher, variable wind gusts will be possible with any of the thunderstorms that develop this evening. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Typical summer weather pattern is expected through the week with scattered showers and isolated storms over the coastal waters, mainly in the morning. As the day progresses, expect showers/storms more closer to the coast/bays, then developing further inland in the afternoon. Rain and storm chances diminish Thursday and Friday, before increasing again after Sunday. Overall, light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas are anticipated through the week. Seas will generally remain into the 3 to 4 ft range; slightly building during the weekend up to 5 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 89 73 / 40 20 50 0 Houston (IAH) 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 81 / 30 40 60 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...JM