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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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065 FXUS64 KHGX 121106 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 606 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There`s really no way to sugarcoat the forecast...because the sugar would melt off fairly quickly anyway. The hot temperatures will persist, but some sufficient rain chances return this afternoon due to increasing moisture. Over the weekend, we`ve had drier air in place which translated to lower heat indices and slim to no rain chances. PW values climb up to 1.9-2.1" this afternoon, which is around the 75th percentile (~2.03"). Combine that with a shortwave sneaking in beneath the mid-level ridge and seabreeze interactions, and we`ll have fairly decent conditions for isolated to scattered showers/storms to develop. There will still be a subsidence inversion layer aloft around 850-800mb to overcome, so convection will still have a bit of a battle to get going. The higher chances for rain will be near and south of I-10. The other side effect of the elevated moisture will be elevated heat indices. Temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 90s once again, but heat indices are expected to peak in the 106-111F range especially for areas along and south of I-10. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 12pm-7pm this afternoon for the southern portion of Southeast TX. Tuesday will pretty much be rinse and repeat, but those elevated heat indices may work their way a bit further north. Another Heat Advisory will be needed tomorrow, but the main question will be how far north will it extend. Overnight temperatures will only drop into the upper 70s to low 80s, so there won`t be much relief from the heat at night. With heat indices around and/or above the criteria for a Heat Advisory ( 108F) throughout the week, please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 With surface high pressure off to our east, a warm onshore flow will persist, and with ridging aloft remaining across the area, we will see little change in our forecast. It will be hot with daily highs in the upper 90s at the start of this period (Wednesday) and in the upper 90s to the low 100s toward the end of the period (Saturday and Sunday). Daily heat index values will be peaking in a 107-113 range resulting in heat advisories and possible excessive heat warnings. Weak impulses/ disturbances occasionally rounding the base of the ridge in combination with possible sea breeze boundaries could bring some rain to parts of the area (mainly staying south of the I-10 corridor), but a majority of Southeast Texas will stay dry. It is worth repeating again this morning...continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with the exception of slightly decreased visibilities at CXO and LBX for the next couple of hours. Winds will be light and southerly initially and become southeasterly around 10-12 knots following the passage of the seabreeze. Isolated showers/storms are possible later this morning into the afternoon, but coverage will be fairly spotty. Any convection that develops will dissipate following sunset. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Light winds and low seas will prevail. During the overnight hours, winds may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances remain low. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 / 20 0 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 83 / 20 0 30 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...42