368
FXUS64 KHGX 122330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A few thunderstorms beginning to fire up along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Storms are expected to remain sub-severe, but could
produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Expect activity to die
down with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tonight will
feel pretty warm and muggy. Lows in the upper 70s to low 80s
combined with the humidity will not provide much relief from today`s
hot temperatures. Because of this, have opted to continue the
current Heat Advisory through the overnight hours into Tuesday
evening. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area
Tuesday afternoon as the mid-upper level ridge continues to
strengthen overhead. Increased low-level moisture in concert with
the sea-breeze will lead to another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again tapering off
in the evening hours. Will need to monitor for the potential of
upgrading the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for
portions of SE Texas on Tuesday. Values are bordering the warning
criteria at the moment, so will see how they trend with the
overnight forecast.

Otherwise, continue to use caution in the heat. Stay hydrated, avoid
strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, and LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK! Remember, pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the
palm of your hand, it is too hot for their paws.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The main weather story in the long term will be the continued heat
and humidity. Model blends showing max heat indices on most days
during this period up near excessive heat warning
thresholds...113F...for many areas. Heat index very sensitive to dew
point which can at times be overdone by models...but certainly
possible we could hit those levels. In any case expecting a long
duration of hot weather ahead with heat stress a concern for those
outdoors away from air conditioning.

As far as rain chances...looking like a few isolated thunderstorms
possible most days along sea breeze fronts...with typical summertime
progression near the coast in morning working up into another row of
counties inland during afternoon...at least through the Wed through
Fri period...but that is about it with most areas remaining dry.

Reilly

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with a
small window for MVFR vis/cigs during the overnight to early
morning hours. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, becoming SE
late morning to early afternoon and increasing to 5-10 KTS. There
is a chance for SHRA/TSRA to develop again near and along the sea
breeze in the afternoon and early evening, similar to today`s
activity (maybe a little more coverage). Some TS can result in
brief moments of strong gusty winds and reduced vis/cigs. Storms
will dissipate late evening. Winds are expected to become light
and VRB again just before midnight.

Cotto (24)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

With high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico through much of the
forecast period...expect mainly light S to SE winds less than 10
knots and low seas for most part. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances
will remain low.

Reilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  97  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  79  97  79  97 /   0  30   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  92  83  91 /   0  30   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>212.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ213-214-226-227-
     235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Reilly