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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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972 FXUS64 KHGX 140840 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Surface high pressure across the ncntl Gulf Coast and mid-upper ridging currently centered along the Sabine will maintain a stagnant, hot weather pattern. Heat Advisories will continue today...and probably for several more days. Only difference with today-Thursday`s wx compared to yesterday will be slightly lower moisture levels...and hence lower overall rain chances/coverage. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Imagine that you`re in a restaurant and you see a waiter/waitress come out with a sizzling skillet of fajitas. You might think to yourself "ohhh that smells REALLY good", but more importantly "wow that plate must be REALLY hot!" Now imagine that on that plate is actually Southeast TX, and that`s essentially our forecast through next week...if only this heat came with a few tortillas and guacamole on the side it just might make it more tolerable. Mid-level high pressure (heat dome) remains the dominant feature of the synoptic pattern into next week, and will actually get a bit stronger over the weekend. As a result, we can expect gradually increasing temperatures and gradually decreasing rain chances as the mid-level high intensifies (500mb heights increasing from 592-594 dam to 594-596 dam over the weekend) and a more amplified ridge axis slides in over the weekend. We start out with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s with a few spots reaching 100F on Friday, and we essentially add ~1F onto that with each day. That means that by the weekend, we`ll be looking at widespread triple digit temperatures across Southeast TX. Portions of the Brazos Valley may see high temperatures around 103F late in the weekend into early next week, which would warrant a Heat Advisory based on the air temperature alone! Speaking of Heat Advisories, we can expect those to continue into next week and there may be some potential for Excessive Heat Warnings as well with heat indices flirting with the 113F mark. That can be attributed to the abundance of low-level moisture funneling in from the Gulf through onshore flow. Since we`re talking about the moisture that`ll be in place (PW values generally around 1.6-2.0"), let`s briefly talk about rain chances. Initially, we`ll continue to have slight chances for isolated showers/storms along the seabreeze into the early part of the weekend, but those chances will be on a downward trend as subsidence aloft increases due to the strengthening mid-level high. Increased subsidence (sinking air) equals decreased rain chances. Rain chances become slim to none on Sunday and that carries into next week. With heat indices [ 108F] and eventually temperatures [ 103F] themselves around the Brazos Valley expected to warrant that AT LEAST a Heat Advisory be in effect into next week, please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light- colored clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR condition will mostly prevail. Can`t rule out an isolated tstm or two closer to the coast and maybe the metro area, but overall chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low seas prevailing into next week. Winds may intermittently increase to 10-15 knots overnight/early morning. Slim chances for isolated showers/storms remain during the early morning to afternoon hours going into the weekend. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 / 20 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 83 / 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...47 LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...47 MARINE...Batiste