972
FXUS64 KHGX 140840
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Surface high pressure across the ncntl Gulf Coast and mid-upper
ridging currently centered along the Sabine will maintain a
stagnant, hot weather pattern. Heat Advisories will continue
today...and probably for several more days.  Only difference with
today-Thursday`s wx compared to yesterday will be slightly lower
moisture levels...and hence lower overall rain chances/coverage.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Imagine that you`re in a restaurant and you see a waiter/waitress
come out with a sizzling skillet of fajitas. You might think to
yourself "ohhh that smells REALLY good", but more importantly
"wow that plate must be REALLY hot!" Now imagine that on that
plate is actually Southeast TX, and that`s essentially our
forecast through next week...if only this heat came with a few
tortillas and guacamole on the side it just might make it more
tolerable. Mid-level high pressure (heat dome) remains the
dominant feature of the synoptic pattern into next week, and will
actually get a bit stronger over the weekend. As a result, we can
expect gradually increasing temperatures and gradually decreasing
rain chances as the mid-level high intensifies (500mb heights
increasing from 592-594 dam to 594-596 dam over the weekend) and a
more amplified ridge axis slides in over the weekend. We start
out with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s with a few
spots reaching 100F on Friday, and we essentially add ~1F onto
that with each day. That means that by the weekend, we`ll be
looking at widespread triple digit temperatures across Southeast
TX. Portions of the Brazos Valley may see high temperatures around
103F late in the weekend into early next week, which would
warrant a Heat Advisory based on the air temperature alone!

Speaking of Heat Advisories, we can expect those to continue into
next week and there may be some potential for Excessive Heat
Warnings as well with heat indices flirting with the 113F mark.
That can be attributed to the abundance of low-level moisture
funneling in from the Gulf through onshore flow. Since we`re
talking about the moisture that`ll be in place (PW values
generally around 1.6-2.0"), let`s briefly talk about rain chances.
Initially, we`ll continue to have slight chances for isolated
showers/storms along the seabreeze into the early part of the
weekend, but those chances will be on a downward trend as
subsidence aloft increases due to the strengthening mid-level
high. Increased subsidence (sinking air) equals decreased rain
chances. Rain chances become slim to none on Sunday and that
carries into next week.

With heat indices [ 108F] and eventually temperatures [ 103F]
themselves around the Brazos Valley expected to warrant that AT
LEAST a Heat Advisory be in effect into next week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make
(especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses
(heat stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest
cooling centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities
during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-
colored clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR condition will mostly prevail. Can`t rule out an isolated tstm
or two closer to the coast and maybe the metro area, but overall
chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low
seas prevailing into next week. Winds may intermittently increase
to 10-15 knots overnight/early morning. Slim chances for isolated
showers/storms remain during the early morning to afternoon hours
going into the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  98  79 /  20   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  84  92  83 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste