570
FXUS64 KHGX 150746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Wx remains status quo. With ridging holding tough, Heat Advisories
will continue and rain chances will remain on the low side (and
mainly for southern parts of the CWA in association with
sea/baybreezes). 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

August will continue to August as the heat persists Saturday...and
the next day...and the next day...and the next day...and well...you
get the idea. We remain under the influence of mid to upper level
ridging that will actually get a bit stronger over the weekend with
the mid-level high intensifying around the TX panhandle and a more
amplified ridge axis sliding in from the west. As a result, we
can expect high temperatures to continue to top out in the upper
90s with some spots reaching  100F over the weekend (especially
Sunday and onward). Heat indices will remain solidly in the Heat
Advisory threshold [ 108F], but there continue to be hints for
the potential of Excessive Heat Warnings with heat indices
approaching the  113F threshold.

As far as rain chances go, those will remain on the slim side but
there is something worth talking about going into early next week. A
fairly elongated upper level trough dips down over the eastern
CONUS with its western extent down in the Mississippi River
Valley. The context for this is that it`ll send a frontal boundary
down into the southeastern CONUS (not to us). The placement of
this front could play a role in rain chances next week due to the
added source of lift once daytime heating gets going and the
potential for boundary interactions. Outside of isolated activity
along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours, a rogue
shower/storm drifting in from the northeast from this boundary may
be our only other shot at seeing some rainfall next week.

All that being said, ANY convection that attempts to develop will
have to fight through a subsidence inversion layer aloft...so rain
chances are no higher than 20%. That weak frontal boundary may be
close enough though to increase PW values over Southeast TX to
2.0-2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.17") on Monday/Tuesday, so at the
very least we could see an increase in humidity. That`s on top of
the expectation for Monday to be the hottest day of the forecast
period with widespread highs in the 100s with heat indices
flirting with the Excessive Heat Warning threshold. (_)

BONUS: Since you read through my novel, I have a bonus nugget for
you! On Saturday morning around 6:01 AM CDT, the International
Space Station will pass right over Space City! It`ll appear from
the southwestern horizon, pass over with a maximum height of 77
(directly overhead would be 90), then disappear into the
northeastern horizon. Skies will be mostly clear for viewing on
Saturday morning thanks to the abundance of subsidence, but a few
of you could be dealing with patchy fog hindering your visibility.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Coastal/metro areas aren`t immune to a
rogue isolated daytime tstm, but overall chances are quite slim.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend and into
next week. Winds may intermittently increase to 10-15 knots
during the overnight and early morning hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development remains possible along daily sea and
land breezes, as well as the slight chance of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm offshore during the predawn hours.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  77  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  98  79  98  80 /  20   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  93  83  93  83 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste