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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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570 FXUS64 KHGX 150746 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Wx remains status quo. With ridging holding tough, Heat Advisories will continue and rain chances will remain on the low side (and mainly for southern parts of the CWA in association with sea/baybreezes). 47 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 August will continue to August as the heat persists Saturday...and the next day...and the next day...and the next day...and well...you get the idea. We remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging that will actually get a bit stronger over the weekend with the mid-level high intensifying around the TX panhandle and a more amplified ridge axis sliding in from the west. As a result, we can expect high temperatures to continue to top out in the upper 90s with some spots reaching 100F over the weekend (especially Sunday and onward). Heat indices will remain solidly in the Heat Advisory threshold [ 108F], but there continue to be hints for the potential of Excessive Heat Warnings with heat indices approaching the 113F threshold. As far as rain chances go, those will remain on the slim side but there is something worth talking about going into early next week. A fairly elongated upper level trough dips down over the eastern CONUS with its western extent down in the Mississippi River Valley. The context for this is that it`ll send a frontal boundary down into the southeastern CONUS (not to us). The placement of this front could play a role in rain chances next week due to the added source of lift once daytime heating gets going and the potential for boundary interactions. Outside of isolated activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours, a rogue shower/storm drifting in from the northeast from this boundary may be our only other shot at seeing some rainfall next week. All that being said, ANY convection that attempts to develop will have to fight through a subsidence inversion layer aloft...so rain chances are no higher than 20%. That weak frontal boundary may be close enough though to increase PW values over Southeast TX to 2.0-2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.17") on Monday/Tuesday, so at the very least we could see an increase in humidity. That`s on top of the expectation for Monday to be the hottest day of the forecast period with widespread highs in the 100s with heat indices flirting with the Excessive Heat Warning threshold. (_) BONUS: Since you read through my novel, I have a bonus nugget for you! On Saturday morning around 6:01 AM CDT, the International Space Station will pass right over Space City! It`ll appear from the southwestern horizon, pass over with a maximum height of 77 (directly overhead would be 90), then disappear into the northeastern horizon. Skies will be mostly clear for viewing on Saturday morning thanks to the abundance of subsidence, but a few of you could be dealing with patchy fog hindering your visibility. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Coastal/metro areas aren`t immune to a rogue isolated daytime tstm, but overall chances are quite slim. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds may intermittently increase to 10-15 knots during the overnight and early morning hours. Isolated thunderstorm development remains possible along daily sea and land breezes, as well as the slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm offshore during the predawn hours. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 78 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 80 / 20 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 / 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...47 LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...47 MARINE...Batiste