414
FXUS64 KHGX 170911
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A more active weather pattern will be in place over SE TX these next
couple of days. Much of the CWA will be in a Marginal Risk for Exces-
sive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Day 2 (Thur).

Per the increasing moisture moving in from the Gulf, radar is show-
ing decent coverage across the coastal waters this morning. Will be
expecting increasing rain chances through this afternoon from areas
near the coast up to and around the I-10 corridor. Activity will be
on the decrease by this evening. Highs today should run warmer over
our northwestern CWA (where POPs will be lower) in the mid to upper
90s...with lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will range from
the mid to upper 70s.

We`ll start to see some changes with the larger scale synoptic pat-
tern tonight as a weak frontal boundary slides down from North TX.
This front is then progged to slowly move across the region on Thur
to the coast then stalling at or just off the coast by Thurs night.
This front appears to be courtesy of the previously mentioned weak-
ness region in the mid and upper pattern deepening to a more trough
like arrangement over the area. So, look for increased rain chances
on Thur with the combination of the front, the seabreeze and plenty
of daytime heating. PWs climbing to 2.1-2.3" could also account for
some heavy downpours with the showers/storms that do form. Coverage
should decrease by Thurs evening, but additional development may be
possible overnight via embedded short waves in the upper jet. These
increased clouds/rain chances should help keep temperatures down in
the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs tomorrow. Lows will be in the
lower to mid 70s.

41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The wet weather will persist through the long term as Thursday`s
stalled boundary continues to meander across the Gulf Coast
through next week. Passing shortwaves plus daytime heating will
help re-invigorate shower and thunderstorm activity along the
boundary Friday and Saturday afternoons. An upper level ridge
situated over the Great Basin will begin to shift further west
towards California allowing for a more robust upper level low to
move into the Central/Southern Plans Sunday where it will stay
through at least midweek next week. This disturbance combined with
PWATs nearing 2-2.3" will lead to scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms Sunday evening through the work week. Rainfall
totals Friday through the weekend will be up to 0.5-1" (some
locally higher amounts) with the coastal areas seeing the best
chances for the 1+ inches. The storm activity will see higher
coverage and longevity Monday and Tuesday leading up to an
additional inch or two of rain.

High temperatures through the long term will be rather seasonal
to even a couple degrees below normal thanks to the increased
cloud cover and rain chances. Afternoon maximums will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Low temperatures will
still be a few degrees above normal with minimums temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s (and even low 80s along the coast).

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions should mainly prevail. Look for some sct shra/tstms
to develop off the coast as we get closer to sunrise, followed by
some seabreeze activity into the metro area during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Added some VCTS`s up to IAH. Should
then see quiet conditions into the late evening hours. Will need
to monitor storms in N Tx, but with the exception of CLL/UTS, if
they survive long enough and sag south into the region...it should
mainly be after the valid period of the 6z TAFs. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally light onshore winds will continue through Thursday. A
weak, diffuse boundary may reach the coastal waters late Thursday
or early Friday morning leading to a brief period of light
offshore or variable flow. The southerly winds should return by
Saturday and continue through next week. Low seas are expected
through next week with wave heights remaining between 1 to 3
feet. The chance for showers and storms increase Thursday and
remain in the forecast through the weekend and into next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  75  92  73 /  10  20  50  30
Houston (IAH)  95  78  93  75 /  40  10  60  50
Galveston (GLS)  90  81  90  78 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler