Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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566 FXUS64 KHGX 151748 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 With the mid/upper level pattern remaining in place (i.e. SE TX in the weakness region between the ridging aloft), the slightly drier air mass over area still won`t inhibit the development of isolated showers/storms through this afternoon. And as it has been on late, the best chances are expected to remain along/near the coast (main- ly south of the I-10 corridor) with the seabreeze (~20%). Activity should be on the decline by late this afternoon/early evening. But tomorrow, moisture levels are progged to begin climbing once again (PWs from 1.7 to 1.8" today/1.9 to 2.0" tomorrow). This along with additional embedded weak disturbances in the flow aloft will allow for increased POPs as well (20-30%) on Tues. And again, the better chances will be from around the I-10 corridor south to the coast. These sunnier skies will translate to warmer daytime temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s from the Brazos Valley out the Piney Woods...mid 90s central/Houston metro and then the lower 90s across the coastal counties...for both today and tomorrow. This is going to produce heat index values in the 102-105F range each day. These conditions could still have dangerous heat impacts for those working outdoors and with people still without power. Please drink plenty of fluids and stay safe. Overnight lows in the 70s could pro- vide some relief. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Rainfall chances will begin to ramp up on Wednesday as an midlevel trough begins to push into the Southern Plains. The approach of this feature (and resultant PVA) along with robust moisture availably (PWs of around 2.0 in) should be sufficient to provide continued support for diurnally driven showers/storms that will peak during the afternoon. As such, have maintained the 40-50% PoP forecast for Wednesday with the greatest chances concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor. A further increase in shower/storm coverage arrives towards the end of the week a surface low associated with the prevailing longwave trough over the Great Lakes drags a weak frontal boundary through the Central Plains. With moisture availability still abundant and diurnal heating providing sufficient instability, the environment will be supportive of more widespread rainfall with the potential for isolated stronger storms to produce locally heavy downpours and/or gusty winds. While a significant flooding threat does not appear on the cards, a few locally higher rainfall totals are possible depending on the location of any stronger storms. Otherwise, total weekly QPF forecast remains under an inch area-wide. The boundary should stall somewhere over SE TX by Friday, allowing for relatively high rainfall chances to remain in the forecast through the duration of the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead beyond the official forecast period, global models show a fairly robust midlevel low developing in the Central Plains which could support a continued wet pattern for the week of July 22. Temperatures will initially remain near seasonal normals, with daily highs on Wednesday in the mid/upper 90s. Overall highs will diminish thereafter due to the expansion of expected rainfall coverage, with many areas struggling to eclipse 90 by Friday. That being said, the ultimate high temperatures each day will ultimately be driven by the exact timing and development of any thunderstorms -- with the prospect of afternoon storms certainly making some locally lower values possible. Overnight lows will generally remain situated in the mid/upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the coast. Cady && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions expected. Iso SH/TS may occur this afternoon and evening, in particular over areas near an S of I-10. Tranquil conditions expected tonight into Tue morning. SW-S winds at 5-10 KTS for the rest of the day, becoming light and VRB overnight. Winds will once again be SW Tue morning at 5-10 KTS, becoming S in the afternoon. Cotto (24) && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Light onshore winds and 1-3 foot seas will not necessitate caution flags and/or advisories for the foreseeable future. Daily thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, with expected rainfall coverage expanding by the end of the week. A few isolated stronger storms can`t be ruled out, with brief increases in seas/winds possible as a result. A brief shift to north winds is possible on Friday as a weak surface frontal boundary stalls over the area. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 82 90 81 / 20 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Cotto (24) MARINE...Cady