362
FXUS64 KHGX 072358
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Storm Beryl continues to be the main forecast feature for
SE TX the next few of days. The system is still expected to streng-
then back to hurricane force this evening, with landfall just east
of Matagorda Bay overnight. In the meantime, rainfall bands associ-
ated with Beryl will continue to move inland and across SE TX with
squall-like conditions possible. Hurricane Warnings will remain in
place for our SW coastal counties with Tropical Storm Warnings for
the rest of the CWA. Storm Surge Warnings are in place for much of
the Middle to Upper TX coast. While there could be sustained winds
up to tropical storm force winds (39-73mph) from the Houston metro
all the way up to Lake Livingston (highest near the coast and then
decreasing going N/NE) around landfall overnight into Mon morning,
the main threat for SE TX should the excessive/heavy rain as Beryl
weakens over the region for Mon afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals
will average from 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts up to
15 inches possible. Scattered showers the last couple of days have
help to increase soil moisture in places, so it may not take a lot
of rain to cause issues tomorrow. Additionally, some of the storms
will be capable of producing tornadoes.

Much more information regarding these tropical hazards (and more)
can be found on our Hurricane Local Statement. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In the wake of Beryl, which will be well into AR by Tues afternoon,
the weak/diffuse flow at the mid to upper levels along with broad/
weak high pressure at the surface across the region will give us a
more diurnal precipitation pattern...fueled by some lingering deep
tropical moisture. The best rain chances are likely going to focus
on the sea/bay breezes during the late morning/afternoons. This is
going to help keep highs mostly in the lower 90s through the week,
with lows in the mid to upper 70s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Outer rainbands from Beryl will continue spreading across SE TX this
eveing with squally conditions developing at times. Coverage will be
increasing tonight through tomorrow morning as Beryl makes landfall.
This system will be weakening during the day tomorrow as it moves to
the N/NE...taking the bulk of the showers/storms with it. Will be ex-
pecting tropical storm force winds are going to develop overnight on
into tomorrow morning for our TAF terminals (sustained 34-73kts with
higher gusts). Winds should begin decreasing by late afternoon (from
the SW to the NE) but CIGS will be slower to lift. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Winds and seas along with the coverage of squalls will continue to
increase this evening and into tonight as Beryl approaches the Texas
Coast. The National  Hurricane Center continues to predict that
Beryl will become a category one hurricane before moving ashore late
tonight or early tomorrow. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for
Matagorda Bay along with the nearshore and offshore waters through
Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Galveston
Bay. Seas of 15-20 feet (occasionally higher) are expected tonight
and tomorrow morning along with widespread strong gales. Hurricane
force gusts are likely in squalls. Sustained hurricane conditions
are expected near where the storm tracks. Winds and seas are
expected to gradually improve by tomorrow afternoon. However,
lingering heavy squalls will be possible.

Once Beryl is out of the way, expect a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Friday. Winds are expected to be
relatively light with seas generally 2-3 feet. However, locally
higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out in or near any
thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  81  72  87 /  60  90  30  20
Houston (IAH)  77  82  75  90 /  90 100  50  30
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  79  88 / 100 100  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ226-235>237-335>337-436-437.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
     227-238-300-313-338-438-439.

     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Monday through Tuesday morning for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

     Hurricane Watch for TXZ438.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Self