226
FXHW60 PHFO 170159
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through
Saturday with a slight decrease possible early next week. Showers
will typically favor windward and mauka locations with some
spillage to leeward, particularly during the overnight into early
morning hours. Chances of showers may increase early next week as
an area of enhanced moisture moves from east to west across the
state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface observations show breezy to locally strong trade winds
this afternoon with mostly fair weather conditions. Similar
weather conditions are expected for this weekend with maybe
slightly more shower activity during the overnight and morning
hours. Any showers should be brief with mainly light rain
accumulations expected. Trade wind speeds may drop a touch early
next week, but overall breezy trade winds will continue through
the first half of next week as high pressure remains anchored far
north of the state.

Some uncertainty in the forecast begins starting late Sunday into
Monday of next week. The forecast is highly dependent on if we
will see some type of tropical disturbance develop far southeast
of the state during the next few days. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook (TWOCP) for more information regarding the
potential tropical genesis. Latest guidance continues to show some
type of tropical moisture passing near the state with the
potential for heavier showers depending on how close the
disturbance passes. With the Big Island being located the
furthest south, they will have the greatest chance for some
enhanced moisture on Monday. That being said, forecast confidence
remains low at this time due to plenty of uncertainty. Beyond
Tuesday and through the middle of next week, we should see our
typical trade wind weather return and the possibility of stronger
trade winds towards the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will bring low cigs and SHRA to
windward and mauka areas for the next few days. MVFR conds can be
expected within SHRA. VFR should generally prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of
Kauai, Maui and The Big Island. This will likely be expanded
overnight into the early morning hours with increased SHRA.

AIRMET Tango for low level turb leeward of the terrain is in
effect today statewide due to the breezy trades and could last
through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong trade winds will persist into early next week, and
as such, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the
typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The
SCA level winds will persist at least through the weekend.

The current small south swell is expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Small background energy from the southeast
expected through Saturday. A more significant south swell will
arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peaking above the summertime
average Monday, and then slowly lower through the middle of next
week.

Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week
for north facing shores, with the possibility of the arrival of a
swell during the second half of the week from Typhoon Ampil
currently near Japan. East shore surf will trend to seasonal
averages through the next week.

The combination of the upcoming full moon and water levels
running around 0.5 ft higher than predicted could produce minor
coastal flooding during the afternoon high tides that will
continue through at least Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement is in
effect for all islands.

Increased moisture and instability moving from east to west over
the offshore waters Sunday night through Monday night south of the
islands could produce some thunderstorms.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Foster