Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
187 FXHW60 PHFO 290638 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 838 PM HST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of Hawaii into next week, producing moderate trade winds through the weekend, and then strengthening into the moderate to breezy range from Monday onward. Passing showers are expected to mainly affect windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. An upper level low will drift from east to west over the islands this weekend, likely increasing shower activity as it passes through the state. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the interior Big Island on Saturday afternoon, and near Kauai this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A band of unstable low level clouds continues to drift through the Hawaiian Islands this evening on the moderate easterly trade winds. Expect enhanced showers for all islands through the early morning hours. The water vapor satellite imagery continues to show an upper level low roughly 450 miles northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This low will slowly drift westward across the island chain through the weekend, enhancing trade wind showers as it passes through the state. Global weather models continue to show a slight weakening of the ridge induced trade winds through the weekend, as the upper low passes over the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Big Island interior on Saturday afternoon, and then near Kauai from Saturday night to Sunday. The ridge north of the island chain will then strengthen after the upper low weakens and drifts away from the islands on Monday, increasing trade winds into the moderate to breezy range from Monday onward. The strengthening ridge will also keep the trade wind thermal inversion at more stable and at lower heights from 5,000 to 6,500 feet next week, limiting shower activity for most of the days. && .AVIATION... Moderate trades are expected to continue across the island chain through the weekend. SHRA and low cigs embedded in the trades will bring brief periods of MVFR conds over windward and mauka locations. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. An upper-level low is forecast to move over the islands this weekend. This will likely cause increased SHRA coverage and require AIRMET Sierra periodically throughout the weekend, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds through the weekend. The trades are expected to strengthen back to fresh and strong levels early next week, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island by Monday. An upper level low passing nearby will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms around Kauai Saturday night into Sunday. A series of south swells will keep south shore surf near the summertime average through Saturday. Surf will lower below normal levels much of next week. A small background south swell could give south shore surf a slight bump around the middle of next week. Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along north facing shores through next week. East shore surf will remain well below normal through the weekend, then trend up and closer to seasonal levels next week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...SMW MARINE...Jelsema