385
FXUS61 KGYX 180228
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1028 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions expected over the rest of the weekend
before more cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing stormy
weather through Tuesday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will be
tracking north through the western Atlantic and staying well out
to sea. Long period swell from Ernesto will start to arrive
tonight and peak around Monday bringing high surf and a rip
current risk. High pressure moves in for the 2nd half of this
week, bringing more tranquil conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM Update...No changes to the going forecast for the
overnight hours as it remains on track.

7 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast this evening
as we remain mostly dry. Like the last few nights, stratus and
fog should become more widespread as the evening progresses. A
few showers are possible here and there but most of the region
will remain dry this evening.

Previously...

A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Lakes will approach
the northeast, ushering clouds and moist air into the region. Mid-
level dry air will release overnight and allow for the
development of some scattered showers by early tomorrow morning.
Some fog and low-level stratus is also expected to develop
overnight as light winds will prevent places from mixing out
until diurnal heating returns tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tomorrow morning starts off foggy, with low-level stratus
across the area. Fog and stratus should lift by the late
morning. The mature mid-latitude cyclone will continue to slowly
approach the northeast, possibly bringing some scattered
showers through the day. Hurricane Ernesto will run parallel to
our coastline well off to sea, bringing some high surf and rip
currents tomorrow and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ernesto will continue to accelerate as it tracks well east of the
Canadian Maritimes on Monday. This will allow for long period waves
to continue to reach the shoreline with some splash-over possible,
especially Monday night as our peak astronomical tides for the month
will be approaching.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough and accompanying slow moving
cold front will cross the region during the day Monday. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in a high PWAT environment and
the frontal system coming to a crawl. A few embedded
thunderstorms may occur along this boundary as well. It will be
humid with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy
fog will develop across the region especially near the
coastline.

There is some uncertainty in Tuesday`s forecast. Some of the models
keep the cold front moving offshore and ending the shower activity.
Others allow for a weak wave of low pressure to form and track along
this front, keeping precipitation in the region. In any case, will
continue with chance pops for the region during the day.

Plenty of cloud cover will pop on Wednesday as an upper level low
allows for plenty of instability across the region. The cloud cover
will once again lead to slightly below normal temperatures for this
time of the year.

The upper level feature will begin to exit the region on Thursday. A
slight increase in sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb
well into the 70s.

The flow aloft will become more zonal with time on Friday, before
ridging develops in the East over the weekend. This will allow for a
warming trend to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Low stratus continues to slowly lift out of the region
this afternoon, with some MVFR and low VFR CIGS expected through the
afternoon. CIGs drop by midnight as low-stratus will to redevelop
after sunset. Overnight areas of fog are possible in addition to the
low stratus, keeping most sites down through the morning. Conditions
will struggle to improve as showers move through the area just as
fog starts to mix out, looking at MVFR CIGs by daybreak. Tomorrow
night looks to resemble similarly to tonight`s forecast, with
showers, fog and low-level stratus developing again overnight
tomorrow.

Long Term...IFR conditions in any showers and possibly a
thunderstorm Monday into Tuesday. There will also be patchy fog,
mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours. Conditions
gradually improve Wednesday, however there still be will
isolated showers in the region especially the mountains. VFR
conditions will end out the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas will progressively increase as Hurricane
Ernesto churns over the north Atlantic. SCA Issuance is likely
from Saturday night until Monday morning for seas up to 5-7
feet. Otherwise, generally southeasterly winds of 7-12kts
expected tonight through tomorrow night. Tomorrow night winds
shift to easterly winds of 7-15kts and hold until Monday
morning.

Long Term...Long period swell from Ernesto will continue Monday
into Monday night. This may last into Tuesday morning before
conditions fall below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     MEZ023.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     MEZ024>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150>152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ153.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Cannon
AVIATION...
MARINE...