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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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385 FXUS61 KGYX 180228 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1028 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry conditions expected over the rest of the weekend before more cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing stormy weather through Tuesday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will be tracking north through the western Atlantic and staying well out to sea. Long period swell from Ernesto will start to arrive tonight and peak around Monday bringing high surf and a rip current risk. High pressure moves in for the 2nd half of this week, bringing more tranquil conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 1025 PM Update...No changes to the going forecast for the overnight hours as it remains on track. 7 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast this evening as we remain mostly dry. Like the last few nights, stratus and fog should become more widespread as the evening progresses. A few showers are possible here and there but most of the region will remain dry this evening. Previously... A mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Lakes will approach the northeast, ushering clouds and moist air into the region. Mid- level dry air will release overnight and allow for the development of some scattered showers by early tomorrow morning. Some fog and low-level stratus is also expected to develop overnight as light winds will prevent places from mixing out until diurnal heating returns tomorrow morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Tomorrow morning starts off foggy, with low-level stratus across the area. Fog and stratus should lift by the late morning. The mature mid-latitude cyclone will continue to slowly approach the northeast, possibly bringing some scattered showers through the day. Hurricane Ernesto will run parallel to our coastline well off to sea, bringing some high surf and rip currents tomorrow and Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ernesto will continue to accelerate as it tracks well east of the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. This will allow for long period waves to continue to reach the shoreline with some splash-over possible, especially Monday night as our peak astronomical tides for the month will be approaching. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and accompanying slow moving cold front will cross the region during the day Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in a high PWAT environment and the frontal system coming to a crawl. A few embedded thunderstorms may occur along this boundary as well. It will be humid with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog will develop across the region especially near the coastline. There is some uncertainty in Tuesday`s forecast. Some of the models keep the cold front moving offshore and ending the shower activity. Others allow for a weak wave of low pressure to form and track along this front, keeping precipitation in the region. In any case, will continue with chance pops for the region during the day. Plenty of cloud cover will pop on Wednesday as an upper level low allows for plenty of instability across the region. The cloud cover will once again lead to slightly below normal temperatures for this time of the year. The upper level feature will begin to exit the region on Thursday. A slight increase in sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb well into the 70s. The flow aloft will become more zonal with time on Friday, before ridging develops in the East over the weekend. This will allow for a warming trend to develop. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Low stratus continues to slowly lift out of the region this afternoon, with some MVFR and low VFR CIGS expected through the afternoon. CIGs drop by midnight as low-stratus will to redevelop after sunset. Overnight areas of fog are possible in addition to the low stratus, keeping most sites down through the morning. Conditions will struggle to improve as showers move through the area just as fog starts to mix out, looking at MVFR CIGs by daybreak. Tomorrow night looks to resemble similarly to tonight`s forecast, with showers, fog and low-level stratus developing again overnight tomorrow. Long Term...IFR conditions in any showers and possibly a thunderstorm Monday into Tuesday. There will also be patchy fog, mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours. Conditions gradually improve Wednesday, however there still be will isolated showers in the region especially the mountains. VFR conditions will end out the week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Seas will progressively increase as Hurricane Ernesto churns over the north Atlantic. SCA Issuance is likely from Saturday night until Monday morning for seas up to 5-7 feet. Otherwise, generally southeasterly winds of 7-12kts expected tonight through tomorrow night. Tomorrow night winds shift to easterly winds of 7-15kts and hold until Monday morning. Long Term...Long period swell from Ernesto will continue Monday into Monday night. This may last into Tuesday morning before conditions fall below SCA thresholds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ023. High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ024>028. NH...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150>152. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ153. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster/Palmer SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION... MARINE...