Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
301 FXUS61 KGYX 111859 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated summer interior showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The Bermuda high will be in place through the weekend bringing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms on on Saturday afternoon away from the coast. Drier conditions on Sunday, before a return to showers and thunderstorms the beginning of next week. Heat will begin to build by the middle of the next week once again. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Daytime instability showers will continue through early evening hours over the terrain areas. No strong lifting mechanism, except across the Western Maine Mountains, but that area is currently being worked over, so overall coverage will be very isolated tonight. Onshore flow will continue once again tonight, with HREF guidance in addition to visibility satellite showing another night of marine stratus and areas of fog. Another warm evening as dewpoint temperatures stay elevated in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Weather Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected * A few heavy rainers are possible tomorrow away from the coast that could lead to some minor advisory type flooding. Weather pattern tomorrow will consists of building heights with shortwave ridging over the area. There is no strong surface or upper level feature in the flow, so any shower or thunderstorm development will most likely be triggered over the terrain areas. New HREF has similar CAPE values as today along with a similar footprint of potential storms development. Overall shear is weak, so pulse convection mode and slow storm movement will lead to heavy downpours and some possible minor low-land flooding being the only issue under these cells. Stratus will once again be widespread across the coastal plain in the morning and will take some time to burn off in the morning. Temperatures will be similar today and seasonable for July. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: High pressure continues to drift NE of the forecast area Sunday. A mature low pressure system centered over southern Hudson Bay will bring the next weather system through northern New England in the form of a cold front Monday. Behind the front, drier conditions settle in through midweek, but a return to very warm or hot temperatures is likely. Details: Temperatures in the 70s and 80s look to close out the weekend, but clouds will continue to linger into early week. Low to mid level clouds will hold on along the coast and interior, and this will play a role in afternoon shower or thunder chances. The warmest temperatures Sunday are expected to be along the western border with VT and CAN, pushing into the lower 80s. Closer to the coastal plain, highs only top out in the mid 70s. A warm front lifting north will assist in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the western ME mountains and NW NH through the Sunday night. Increasing clouds and fog could help temps from falling too much overnight, hovering in the upper 60s to around 70 for southern NH. Monday, fog dissipates through the morning hours as the cold front slowly makes its way through the forecast area. While it will act as a lifting feature, overall strength will be waning as it nears the coast. Combined with limited shear through the column, strong to severe storms look unlikely at this point. If clouds thin enough for decent surface heating to take place, could see storms with thin updrafts develop through the afternoon. Attention then turns towards increasing temperatures midweek. While IQR ranges continue to tighten, there remains some refinement in daytime highs as well as how much low level moisture will be in the vicinity for added humidity. Today`s forecast brings temperatures for Tues/Wed/Thurs a few degrees below heat headline criteria for much of the area. Greater confidence in a three day stretch of hot temperatures is in far southern NH at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...IFR conditions for most TAF terminals once again tonight as low stratus develops along the coastal plain. Expect peak aviation impacts from 2 am through 8 am tomorrow. Ceilings will burn off and rise through the morning hours. Long Term...Similar pattern will continue with IFR ceilings returning Saturday night into Sunday morning, and then Sunday night into Monday. Fog may also restrict visibility. Ceiling restrictions may improve to MVFR during the daytime each day. Southern NH terminals may escape IFR restrictions Monday night, but much of southern ME could see another night of low stratus and coastal fog. && .MARINE... Short Term...Fog is expected across the coastal waters tonight. Improving visibility is expected tomorrow morning. but will have to watch as southerly return flow on Saturday into Sunday increases, bringing continued advection of moist air, that could lead to more fog formation. Overall seas and winds will remain well below SCA conditions with high pressure in control. Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA through the period. Onshore flow dominates through early next week, with a weak cold front approaching the coast Tuesday morning. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ027- 028. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dumont NEAR TERM...Dumont SHORT TERM...Dumont LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION...Cornwell/Dumont MARINE...Cornwell/Dumont