401
FXUS61 KGYX 141946
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
346 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will increase on Monday and Tuesday before a stronger
cold front arrives late Wednesday with the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms. It won`t be as hot with lower
humidity behind the front at the end of the week into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows some diurnally
driven cumulus across the region but otherwise skies are mainly
sunny. These sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm into
the upper 80s across much of the region with a few lower 90s in
southern locations. Afternoon mixing has allowed sfc dew points
to fall into the lower to middle 60s in most locations though,
which is keeping heat indices near the actual air temperature.
A sea breeze is slowly advancing inland over western ME but the
westerly flow is slowing its forward progression. It will
continue to be a warm and dry afternoon and evening with
temperatures cooling towards sunset.

Mainly clear skies tonight combined with light winds and
relatively low dew points will allow for one more cool night
with lows falling into the upper 50s across the north to the
lower and middle 60s south. Valley fog is once again likely
after midnight with perhaps some patchy fog across the Mid-Coast
and islands.

Mainly sunny skies on Monday morning will become partly cloudy
by the afternoon as daytime instability combines with some weak
forcing from a passing sfc trough. This will result in a
building cumulus field with a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out with
the primary threat being locally strong winds. H8 temperatures
will be around 3-5 degrees warmer than today and this will allow
highs to reach the lower to middle 90s south of the mountains.
Dew points will also be on the increase with readings into the
upper 60s/low 70s and this will help to push afternoon heat
indices to the 95-100 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been
issued to account for this across portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and storms will dissipate Monday evening with
lows into the 60s. Nighttime fog is once again likely and it
could be more widespread due to rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
%00 Mb pattern cross NOAM moves from a zonal to become more
amplified by late in the week, with ridging over the inter-
mountain west and troughing in the east. But before things
become less warm, we still have several days of heat to go, as
the ridge over the east gets a poleward push from the digging
trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest. The trough will linger
into next weekend, and while it will be cooler, temps will
still be running on the warm edge of the normal envelope.

On Tuesday it looks sunny enough with decent SW flow to mix the
hot air aloft down to the sfc, and this will allow for highs of
90-95 everywhere but the mtns and the mid coast, with mostly
mid 90s in S NH and interior SW ME. The SW flow and mixing
should keep Tds limited to around 70 F, so while it will be hot
and humid Heat indices are expected to top at out a little over
100, and not reach the 105 warning criteria. Still it will be a
day where staying cool and hydrated will be important. It will
be unstable enough to pop a few isolated convective cells almost
anywhere, and with a weak passing well to the N, there will be
a better chance in the mtns. But more areas will stay dry than
see any SHRA/TSRA.

Tuesday night mins will mostly be 70-75, but upper 60s in the
mtns and the mid-coast, perhaps warmer in the more populated
areas of S NH. SCT showers and convection could linger in the
mtns through the evening as well. Given the highs Tds some fog
is possible ins sheltered areas, but the SW flow should remain
strong enough, that it will only be patchy.

Wed will be another hot day, but probably not quite as bead as
Tuesday, as we see more in the way of clouds through the day,
and the chance of SHRA/TSRA ahead oi the cold front to our NW.
Could also see some turning of the flow onshore, with a better
sea breeze in the afternoon, as the storms develop further
inland. However, will probably need a heat advisory for one more
day, although maybe with less coverage than Tuesday. The sfc
front pushes offshore in the evening, but is expected to stall S
of the CWA, so while the mtns and foothills may see the benefit
of cooler temps and lowers Tds Wed night, it is unlike closer
to the coast and in S NH, although it will be cooler than
previous night with lows ranging from around 60 in the N to the
mid to upper 60s in the S. 12Z Euro has stalled that front
further S than some previous runs, but could still see a lot of
clouds around in the S on Thu, with a chance of showers, and a
chance of showers in the N Thu afternoon as the upper level
trough approaches. Highs will be in upper 70s to mid 80s.

The trough stays well to our N Friday and Saturday, and will
usher in more seasonable mid level air, and highs both days look
to be 75-80 in the mtns and in the low to mid 80s S of there,
with over night lows ranging from the mid 50s N to the low to
mid 60s in the S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions dominate tonight through Monday
night. The exception will be at KLEB and KHIE where valley fog
and IFR to LIFR restrictions are likely each night. Some fog is
also possible at KRKD and KAUG, although of lower confidence.
Winds will be primarily out of the west-southwest at 10-15 kts.
No LLWS is expected.

Long Term...Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot days with high
humidity and warm lows Tue night. A few SCT TSRA are possible on
Tue afternoon as well. Fog will likely be limited to the
KHIE/KLEB Tue night as SW flow does keep it a bit overnight. A
better chance for TSRA is expected Wed aft/eve, as if overnight
fog Wed night. A few isol TSRA remain possible on Thu, but
Friday looks dry attm, with VFR. and the threat of fog each
night. Also SCT TSRA are possible both afternoons. The next
chance of more widespread flight restrictions will be Wed night
into Thu morning as the cold front pushes through and may stall
just off shore.


&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South-southwesterly winds will mainly remain below
25 kts through the period but a few gusts to near 25 kts are
possible Monday across the outer waters. Seas will be at 2-4 ft,
highest outside the bays.

Long Term...Generally winds/seas stay below SCA levels through
the coming week, but could approach SCA gusts late Wed or Wed
night in advance of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ012-018>020-
     033.
NH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NHZ004-006-
     008>010-012>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa