139
FXPQ50 PGUM 100752
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
552 PM ChST Wed Jul 10 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
for Tinian and Saipan, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers
over Guam and Rota. A few lightning strikes have been observed in the
western waters. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy are
indicating seas of 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Surface troughs and deeper moisture look to bring scattered showers
through the end of the work week. Thunderstorms are possible as
instability increases and a TUTT cell moves into the region and
looks to provide some upper-level support. Models are trending drier
for the weekend, but are showing an increase in showers again by
around Tuesday as surface troughing and moisture creep north from
Micronesia.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to at times moderate winds, along with combined seas of 3 to
5 feet, will continue through Saturday. Scattered showers and a
potential for thunderstorms expected through Friday night. Seas will
trend up slightly beginning Sunday as the trade swell and winds
increase.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing
reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs. Surf may increase
slightly next week as the trade swell increases, but little change in
rip risk expected.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Not a lot is happening in Eastern Micronesia today, just a few
troughs stirring up some convection. The first trough is currently
located between southwest of Bikini Island and southeast of Majuro.
Showers associated with this trough are mainly in the end points of
with some sprinkling of showers inbetween. The second trough`s
location is also near the southwest of Bikini Island and heads
southwest to towards Pohnpei. Earlier today there was a more distinct
divide between these two troughs. Both of these troughs are in the
final phases of their life span.

Over this week, more trade-wind convergence is expected for the
region. This is what will be keeping the Probability of
Precipitation in the low to mid range of scattered showers for
Pohnpei and Kosrae, Majuro on the other hand seems to be where the
convergence happens and may possibly escape with only isolated
showers for the weekend.

Seas are expected to remain fairly benign, the only exception may be
if any of the showers becomes large. That would make for some locally
rougher seas. Winds are expected to be gentle to fresh throughout
the week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The major concern is the weak circulation south of Yap proper. This
system brought showers to much of the western region of Western
Micronesia, namely western Yap state and Republic of Palau. This
system has split in two, with the weaker portion decaying over Yap
Proper, and the stronger portion moving of Koror. There is fairly
weak but visible circulation near 6N137E. Wind speeds near this
circulation are estimated to be around 10 to 15 MPH. Models are
suggesting that this system will move at away from the main island of
Palau, this does mean that the southern islands like Sonsorol. Pulo
Anna, Merir, Helen`s Reef, Tobi are likely to get strong weather.

Over this week, Palau is expected to remain wet due to this
circulation pulling more moisture into the region. Yap will likely
have less showers than Palau around the isolated/scattered line.
Chuuk can expect to see mid to high-end scattered showers as trade-
wind convergence and the circulation is generating small cells of
showers.

Seas are expected to remain fairly benign, with the only exception
is near the large circulation. That would make for some locally
rougher seas. Winds are expected to be light to gentle for Palau and
Yap throughout the week. For Chuuk, gentle to moderate winds are
expected to diminish to light to gentle by the start of next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Bowsher