![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
635 FXUS62 KGSP 161826 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 226 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier conditions will return next week with below normal temperatures through most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Friday: Scattered convection developing across the NC northern mountains and foothills. Latest CAMs keep best coverage over the mountains and foothills for the next couple of hours then it spreads across the NC Piedmont and portions of the Upstate and NE GA. The atmos is moderately unstable with some effective shear. dCAPE values haven`t risen significantly however. Expect mostly general storms but a strong to severe storm or two will be possible. The CAMs show convection dropping off quickly after 6Z. Have followed these trends for PoPs. There is a decent set up for fog overnight, but lingering convective debris could put damper on fog formation. Did include patchy fog for the normally more foggy locations. Lows will be a few degrees below normal. The guidance is now showing little convective development until very late in the day on Saturday. Have followed these trends as well which keeps convection limited to the western portions of the CWFA. There may be enough instability, bulk shear, and dCAPE for a severe storm or two across the mountains where coverage will be better. Highs will be as much as 5 degrees above normal with higher thickness values. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period. A diffuse cold front will push across the area on Saturday night and Sunday. This will lead to the chance of showers and thunderstorms each of those periods. By Sunday night and Monday, drying will push into the Piedmont areas, while there will still remain the chance of showers for the mountainous areas as the mid level trough swings through. High temperatures will be above normal on Sunday, but will trend cooler than normal for most of the area, except near the Savannah River, on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Surface high pressure will push into the region for the middle of next week. This will lead to temperatures a few degrees below normal and comfortable dewpoints as low as 60 degrees on Tuesday. No rainfall is expected either day. The high will push off to the east on Thursday with some return moisture, but only a slight chance of diurnal showers. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection beginning across the mountains and foothills. CAMs show better coverage first for KAVL and KHKY then delayed until 23Z or so for the rest of the sites. Have updated TEMPO timing for these trends. S to SW wind with low end gusts possible this afternoon becomes light SW or light and variable overnight. There could be quite a bit of convective debris clouds around tonight which would limit fog in an otherwise good set up. Have gone MVFR for now at KAVL and KHKY which will be the most likely locations should fog form. WSW wind, WNW at KAVL, picks back up with mixing on Saturday. Expect VFR Cu through the day. Guidance is not as excited about convection, so have kept out of the TAF for now. Outlook: A cold front will track over the forecast area Sunday with convection expected possibly into Monday. Drier conditions return behind the front by Tuesday. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in any locations that received heavy rainfall the day prior. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...RWH