635
FXUS62 KGSP 161826
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
226 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Drier conditions will return
next week with below normal temperatures through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday: Scattered convection developing across the
NC northern mountains and foothills. Latest CAMs keep best coverage
over the mountains and foothills for the next couple of hours then
it spreads across the NC Piedmont and portions of the Upstate and NE
GA. The atmos is moderately unstable with some effective shear.
dCAPE values haven`t risen significantly however. Expect mostly
general storms but a strong to severe storm or two will be possible.
The CAMs show convection dropping off quickly after 6Z. Have
followed these trends for PoPs. There is a decent set up for fog
overnight, but lingering convective debris could put damper on fog
formation. Did include patchy fog for the normally more foggy
locations. Lows will be a few degrees below normal.

The guidance is now showing little convective development until very
late in the day on Saturday. Have followed these trends as well
which keeps convection limited to the western portions of the CWFA.
There may be enough instability, bulk shear, and dCAPE for a severe
storm or two across the mountains where coverage will be better.
Highs will be as much as 5 degrees above normal with higher
thickness values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the
Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short
range period. A diffuse cold front will push across the area on
Saturday night and Sunday. This will lead to the chance of showers
and thunderstorms each of those periods. By Sunday night and Monday,
drying will push into the Piedmont areas, while there will still
remain the chance of showers for the mountainous areas as the mid
level trough swings through.

High temperatures will be above normal on Sunday, but will trend
cooler than normal for most of the area, except near the Savannah
River, on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Surface high pressure will push into the
region for the middle of next week. This will lead to temperatures a
few degrees below normal and comfortable dewpoints as low as 60
degrees on Tuesday. No rainfall is expected either day.

The high will push off to the east on Thursday with some return
moisture, but only a slight chance of diurnal showers. Temperatures
are expected to remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection beginning across the
mountains and foothills. CAMs show better coverage first for KAVL
and KHKY then delayed until 23Z or so for the rest of the sites.
Have updated TEMPO timing for these trends. S to SW wind with low
end gusts possible this afternoon becomes light SW or light and
variable overnight. There could be quite a bit of convective debris
clouds around tonight which would limit fog in an otherwise good set
up. Have gone MVFR for now at KAVL and KHKY which will be the most
likely locations should fog form. WSW wind, WNW at KAVL, picks back
up with mixing on Saturday. Expect VFR Cu through the day. Guidance
is not as excited about convection, so have kept out of the TAF for
now.

Outlook: A cold front will track over the forecast area Sunday with
convection expected possibly into Monday. Drier conditions return
behind the front by Tuesday. Patchy fog and low stratus will be
possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in any locations
that received heavy rainfall the day prior.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH