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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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512 FXUS62 KGSP 142304 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 704 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure gradually builds in from the north through Thursday, resulting in mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. The high will drift east off the East Coast Friday, as a cold front approaches from the west over the weekend. The front will bring a return of better chances of shower and thunderstorms through Sunday, then lower chances early next week with temperatures near normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 701 PM EDT Wednesday: A scattering of showers has developed across the mountains as expected with most of the activity confined from Macon County to Transylvania County. These showers will slowly drift south this evening with some activity potentially spilling into the western Upstate with a stray shower festering into the overnight. Very limited instability will make it difficult to achieve deep enough cores for even lightning, thus no hazards are expected. Limited rainfall rates and low PWATs will preclude any threat for locally heavy rain. The forecast remains largely on track and only minor adjustments were needed. Tonight looks like it should be fairly quiet thanks to sfc high pressure ridging down from the Mid Atlantic region. The most likely problem will be locally dense fog/low stratus in the mtn valleys and around some of the larger lakes and rivers, given the high amounts of low level moisture still hanging around. A more interesting potential problem, which admittedly has a low probability, would be rain over northeast Georgia and the western Upstate. This is only mentioned because most of the CAMs have some flavor of taking a few showers southward tonight off the higher terrain, then stalling them as they run into a developing light SE flow around the back side of a weak 850 mb high, then drifting them back upslope toward the Balsams. Could this result in a surprise heavy rain scenario? Probably not, because fcst soundings show only shallow instability, modest precipitable water, and fairly high MBE velocity, so we are missing some ingredients, but the warm cloud depth remains high. Low temps will be below normal across the NC portion where drier air has filtered in, but around normal over the Upstate and northeast Georgia where we may keep more clouds. For Thursday, expect a similar day, with another round of ridgetop convection in the afternoon. High temps may creep back up a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday: An upper low moving across the Great Lakes helps build a trough into the area through the period. High pressure over the area slides east as a cold front approaches from the NW on Friday and into the area on Saturday. The right entrance region of the upper jet moves into the area as well. Expect scattered convection mainly over the mountains Friday afternoon which could last well into the night. Convection spreads across the area Saturday as moisture and forcing increase with the front. A moderately unstable air mass and moderate bulk shear could move in with the front as well creating the potential for organized, and possibly severe, convection. Highs will be near to a little above normal both days. Lows Thursday night near to slightly below normal rise to above normal Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday: An upper trough axis slowly crosses the area Sunday and Monday. The cold front from Saturday slowly moves east of the area during this time. Looks like moisture and weak instability will be best over the mountains both days and the NC foothills and Piedmont on Sunday for isolated to scattered diurnal convection. Dry high pressure builds in on Tuesday resulting in a dry forecast. Moisture return begins on Wednesday with generally isolated diurnal convection. Highs will be near to slightly above normal with lows near to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Quiet VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the evening and into the overnight hours within a relatively dry airmass. A couple scattered showers are ongoing across the mountains and some of this activity may drift near KAVL over the next couple hours. Otherwise, the main focus overnight will be the potential for another round of locally dense fog and low stratus with IFR restrictions possible. Confidence is highest at KAVL and KHKY, but shallow patchy ground fog cannot be completely discounted at any terminal around sunrise. VFR conditions will return shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning and persist through the day with only a couple isolated mountain showers expected. Outlook: Coverage of convection increases Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches out of the west. Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in any locations that received heavy rainfall the day prior. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM/TW SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...TW