952
FXUS62 KGSP 140131
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
931 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot high pressure will dominate the area into early next week, with
only isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. The pattern
is expected to change mid-week as a cold front stalls across the
area and brings above normal rain chances and cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 929 PM EDT Saturday: A quiet evening is underway as any
residual showers have since dissipated with the loss of daytime
heating. The ongoing forecast remains on track with no changes
needed.

Weak high pressure will settle over the region and allow for mostly
clear skies overnight as lows run a few degrees above normal with
elevated dew points in place. Wash, rinse, repeat for Sunday as the
synoptic pattern remains relatively the same. Max temperatures may
end up a few ticks higher than today, but even deeper mixing within
the boundary layer should help keep heat indices under Advisory
criteria once again. CAMs also indicate another round of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms during peak heating Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: A weak midlevel shortwave will be pushing
through the area Sunday evening as we move into the short term, with
a strong upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and Bermuda high
dominating the Atlantic. Southeast flow around the Bermuda high will
continue to bring WAA into the area, with a bit of lee troughing
along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Very warm temperatures
through the short-term period 5-7 degrees above seasonal normals and
only a couple of degrees below records especially at CLT and AVL,
and may have to look at Heat Advisory concerns on Tuesday, but will
have to evaluate that as we get closer depending on mixing and
eventual high temperatures. For now expect pops to be close to
diurnal just given the low-level thermodynamic environment, even
with the dry air aloft, but with a little enhancement on Tuesday
with a slight uptick in PW values as the upper longwave pattern to
the north begins to drop down toward the OH Valley and deeper
moisture begins to lift up into the SE in response.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday: A pattern change is in the works for the
extended. As mentioned previously, longwave trough will be
approaching late Tuesday, and will be pushing into the Southern
Appalachians as we move into Wednesday, forced by strong upper low
over Southern Canada/Great Lakes. Some timing differences on the
global models but enough agreement to go with much higher pops for
Wednesday, likelies in the Piedmont/categorical in the mountains.
Temperatures will be bumped down a few degrees but still above
normal...that said, of course, any location that receives rain would
see temporary relief. Bigger changes on Thursday into Friday as the
upper trough elongates from the Great Lakes toward the Gulf, setting
up a deep SW moist SW flow aloft and the front stalls across the
area. Pops remain correspondingly high through the end of the period
and afternoon highs drop a few degrees each day, and we close out
the forecast 5-7 degrees below normal. This will of course be
refined as we get closer but it will be a welcome change.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminals through the period. A couple widely scattered showers
persist over the area early this evening, but will dissipate over
the next hour or so with no impacts expected at any terminals.
Patchy shallow fog cannot be ruled out, especially where rainfall
occurred today, but confidence in where this may occur remains too
low to warrant mention in any TAFs. Isolated showers will be
possible again tomorrow afternoon, but uncertainty in coverage will
also preclude the addition of any PROB30 groups at this time. Winds
will be light and variable overnight and light out of the
north/northwest tomorrow.

Outlook: Isolated/widely scattered diurnal showers and storms are
expected mainly over the mountains through early next week. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage during the
latter half of the week as a cold front pushes into and stalls near
the region. Morning fog/low stratus will be possible each morning,
especially across the mountain valleys and for areas that received
heavy rainfall the day prior.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...CAC/TW
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TW