029
FXUS62 KGSP 160518
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
118 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot high pressure lingers above the region through Tuesday. A
pattern change starts on Wednesday with a cold front forecast to
approach from the north then become stationary across our region for
several days.  Expecting waves of low pressure to move along the
front enhancing the chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday: The last bit of showers over the far eastern
counties is diminishing quickly. Adjusted PoPs to cover this small
area of the area, but should be gone in he next hour or so.
Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the mountains and clouds
departing the east as the shower activity tapers off. Forecast is on
track for a quiet weather night ahead.

Otherwise, a similar set for Tue with weak energy traversing the
flow while lee troffing sticks around. Soundings show a deeply moist
airmass with little shear thru the column. Thus, there could be a
better chance of storms re-developing across the same areas possibly
leading to localized hydro issues. Surface dewps will remain a
little higher afternoon, but high temps still reach the u90s east of
the mtns. So another Heat Advisory will likely be needed across more
areas across the srn zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: The overall synoptic pattern becomes
progressive during the short term as gradual height falls begin to
enter the CFWA from the northwest on Wednesday. A digging upper
trough is expected to swing from the Northern Great Plains into
the northeastern CONUS by Thursday. An attendant frontal boundary
will encroach the region on the leeside of the trough as a strong
pull of moisture shifts into the region, ahead of the front as
the gradient between the front and Bermuda High tightens. Model
guidance are in good agreement with slowing down to almost stalling
the front as it stretches from the Mid-Atlantic through the OH/TN
Valleys and into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, showers and
thunderstorms will uptick in coverage each day and bring in likely
to categorical PoPs. QPF response looks decent and should bring in
a slight drought relief to the CFWA. Afternoon highs and overnight
lows will be a few ticks above normal, but max temperatures could
become tricky, especially if extensive cloud cover and rainfall
builds into the area and settles in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: Very unsettled pattern will be in store
for much of the extended period. Sandwiched between ongoing upper
troughiness to the north, a stalled boundary just north of the
CFWA and continued influence from the Bermuda High will set the
stage for long duration PoPs, with the peak occurring during the
afternoon hours each day, but lingering showers and storms will be
possible during the overnight hours as well. The pattern doesn`t
change much through this weekend. In this case, a break from the
heat and more drought relief will be on the way with temperatures
struggling to reach the 90 degree mark for most locations through D7
as extensive cloud cover and high PoPs are likely. Localized flash
flooding may become a concern in locations that receive multiple
rounds of convective rainfall in a short time period. Otherwise,
severe weather will be very limited and conditions will remain
muggy, but definitely cooler through the medium range as values
remain slightly below normal. Enjoy!

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail for most sites through
the end of the TAF period. Tonight, areas that received rainfall
Monday evening could encounter brief periods of patchy BR or low
level stratus. TEMPOs at KAVL and KHKY before 12z account for the
likelihood of this vsby restriction. Vsby conditions improve after
12z and quickly return to VFR. Another afternoon chance for showers
and TSRA at all terminals, therefore a PROB30 during the afternoon
and into early evening hours. As for winds, speeds should remain
relatively light and prevail SW. During the afternoon, winds could
become VRB should any TSRA develop with a brief period of gusty
winds near these storms. Otherwise, a generally quiet TAF forecast.

Outlook: An uptick in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday onward as
a cold front approaches and stalls near the region. Morning fog/low
stratus possible each morning, especially across the mountain
valleys and for areas that received heavy rainfall the day prior.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/SBK
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP