


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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844 FXUS63 KGRR 071145 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 745 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing out with less heat and humidity today - Almost daily chances for showers or storms Tuesday night into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Clearing out with less heat and humidity today Early morning low stratus and drizzly rain showers will gradually lift and clear out from northwest to southeast during the day. High temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals today, in the lower 80s in most spots, with lower dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. More information on the potential late-day increasing swim risk (beach hazards) in the Marine section below. - Almost daily chances for showers or storms Tuesday night into the weekend Quasi-zonal but relatively weak 500 mb flow with a few shortwaves rippling through, plus gradually increasing heat and moisture in the the low levels, will support frequent chances for showers or thunderstorms popping up between Tuesday night and the weekend. Per ensembles, chances are relatively higher between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, then Friday night through Saturday evening in association with the more pronounced upper-level shortwave troughs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Feels more like autumn out there this morning, with variable IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility plus some areas of drizzle. Conditions should gradually improve as cloud bases lift and scatter. Not very good confidence in getting the change in flight categories down to the exact hour as models handle the mixing and drying of the lower atmosphere quite differently. But solar heating doesn`t get much stronger during the year than now, so there is optimism for VFR by afternoon. Generally, the trend to VFR will occur sooner northwest and later southeast. Winds will mostly be from the north, becoming more variable this evening and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Waves in the nearshore are coming down following yesterday`s evening increase in winds and waves. Winds from the north becoming northwest and increasing this afternoon will trend conditions toward a late-day moderate to high swim risk (beach hazard) for Muskegon county and south. Combination of post-cold-frontal high pressure nudging into the U.P. and the afternoon development of the lake breeze circulation will intensify winds toward 18-20 knots in the nearshore off Muskegon, Grand Haven, and Holland, per the HREF mean. This is a scenario that often yields a moderate becoming high swim risk late in the day for Muskegon State Park, Holland State Park, and South Haven North Beach. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MIZ050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>847. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS