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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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891 FXUS63 KGRR 121143 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 743 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fair weather with milder temps early this week - Continued dry through midweek then late-week rain && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Fair weather with milder temps early this week Skies will be partly sunny today and it will be a little milder with high temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some higher res guidance including the latest HRRR and the 00Z HREF suggest isolated showers may develop over our northeast to east fcst area this aftn where some low level confluence develops. However a polling of fcst soundings for that area this afternoon looks quite dry overall. Therefore at this time we will maintain an optimistic and dry fcst today. More of the same is forecast for tomorrow and high temps will be around 2-4 degrees milder than today as a consensus of numerical guidance has been suggesting for several days now. As forecast soundings continue to look quite dry once again we will maintain the dry forecast for tomorrow too. Fcst soundings only show potential for a sct-bkn fair wx cu deck with cloud bases at around 5 kft agl the next couple of days. - Continued dry through midweek then late-week rain A dry/sunny weather pattern with seasonable temps holds through mid week with sfc ridging in control before changes arrive toward later Thursday. Confidence continues to grow for a fairly widespread/substantial rainfall occurring on Thursday night and Friday. This is when PWATs greater than 1.75" arrive ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave and sfc low pressure system. The majority of grand ensemble members now show over 0.5" 24 hr rainfall amounts with several showing over 1" and a few even over 2". NBM pops continue to trend up too and are now 60-70 percent Thursday night and Friday when what looks to be a sfc occlusion is slowly passing through. There is also increasing confidence that upper troughing persists for most of next weekend and even the possibility of a closed upper low evolving and stalling over the nrn GrtLks Rgn. This would imply a continuation of scattered showers and isolated tstms over the weekend within cyclonic flow pattern, although the air mass remains fairly warm with high temps holding at 75-80 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 742 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR weather expected today and tonight with scattered to broken clouds between 5000 and 8000 ft and some high level cirrus clouds above that. West winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Rather minimal wind speeds and wave heights are forecast early this week now that the pressure gradient has eased up and cool air advection is no longer occurring. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meade/Laurens AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Laurens