378
FXUS63 KGRB 111725
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather conditions are expected today through the middle
  of the week. Few slight chances for showers today and Monday,
  but most locations will stay dry.

- Next chance for more widespread thunderstorms comes toward the
  end of the week, but severe weather potential during this time
  period is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Synopsis: Slightly warmer temperatures return today with a warming
trending into the start of the upcoming week as the mid-level low
currently centered over the easter UP shifts to the east. Only slight
chances for scattered showers across the region today and Monday
with predominately dry conditions through the mid-week. Next chance for
more widespread thunderstorms returns toward the end of the week as
a more well developed low crosses the northern Plains.

Precip: More recent CAMs runs are favoring a slightly slower
departure of the mid-level low that has produced several rounds of
lake effect showers over northern and northeastern WI the last few
day. This trend as lead to a slight increase in the chance for a few
isolated showers this afternoon across northern WI. However, with
warmer temperatures arriving at the mid-levels this afternoon lake-
effect processes won`t be as efficient so most places may just see a
cumulus field develop.

Dry and mostly clear conditions should prevail tonight into Monday
morning as a mid-level ridge moves over the region. Models seem to
be coming into better agreement with a slight chance for showers
Monday afternoon/evening as an upper-level shortwave and surface
boundary develop across the region. The best chance for a shower and
possibly a rumble of thunder (10-15% chance) will be in the vicinity
of the surface boundary current forecast to be oriented from north-
central to east-central WI. A lull in the precip chances Tuesday and
Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds over the region.

More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returns toward
the end of next week as a more well-develop low is forecast to trek
across the northern Plains into the upper-Mississippi Valley.
Currently models don`t show the ingredients for severe weather
coming together well, but will need to monitor this period as our
next potentially impactful weather producer.

Temps: Height rises and less breezy northwest winds today will allow
for temperatures to warm back near seasonal with highs in the middle
to upper 70s for most locations. Expect the warming trend to continue
into the middle of next week with highs each day reaching the upper
70s to low 80s. Humidity levels should remain comfortable through the
first half of the week as dew points sit in the middle 50s to low
60s. Does look like southerly flow Thursday and Friday will usher in
higher dew (middle to upper 60s), but humidity levels should not feel
oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

No hazardous weather expected at this time.

10 to 15 percent chance for light rain or sprinkles this
evening. Winds to fall under 10 kts after sunset.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Kotenberg