094
FXUS63 KGRB 180848
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
348 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday morning.

- Isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms are likely to
  develop each afternoon from Saturday through the middle of next
  next. Severe thunderstorm potential is low.

- Temperatures will be near-normal for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Friday

The western Great Lakes were under the influence of NW flow
aloft and a large Canadian high pressure system early this
morning. Patchy fog was reported over NC/C WI, and was expected
to mix out by around 13z. Temperatures were cool; in the 40s and
50s.

The Canadian high will bring dry conditions through Friday.
Cumulus clouds will develop during the afternoons, especially
over C/EC WI, where thermal troughing will remain in place and
surface dew points will be higher.

Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s today, and upper 70s to
lower 80s on Friday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s and
50s. Humidity levels will remain quite comfortable for outdoor
activities.


Long Term...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Broad pattern throughout the long term forecast remains mostly
unchanged. Upper ridging across the western U.S. and troughing
through the central and eastern U.S., along with a lack of
significant upper forcing, will lead to a stretch of mostly quiet
weather, afternoon chances for showers/storms, and seasonable
temperatures.

A cold front begins to sag south into northern Wisconsin on
Saturday. This front lingers around the area into early next
week, with its exact location and orientation varying a bit each
day. Forecast soundings show each day from Saturday through
Wednesday will follow a fairly similar pattern: dry and quiet
mornings, then daytime heating leading to some cloud development.
Some of these clouds could produce isolated to scattered showers
or thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoons/early evenings,
and then waning as the sun sets. Not every location will see
showers each day, but the chance of showers exists in each
location daily. The position of the front along with amount of
instability will determine the exact extent of the coverage and
each day. Overall, the severe thunderstorm potential looks low
most days, but not impossible if conditions line up just right
over a small area. Any severe potential will be extremely isolated
and short- lived. Afternoon soundings show inverted-v profiles
with long- skinny CAPES usually below 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind
shear is quite low, so the potential for any gusts would likely
come locally from within the storm. Small hail and brief, heavy
downpours are also possible within any storms.

Otherwise, the nights and mornings look dry and quiet.

Temperatures will be almost right on par with normal, with daily
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and daily lows in the mid 50s
to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight into Thursday morning as
a high pressure system sags through the region. Another cumulus
field is expected to develop Thursday afternoon, with bases of
4-6k ft, but with less coverage at FEW-SCT. These clouds should
then dissipate Thursday evening with the loss of daytime heating.

.OSH...Mostly clear skies are expected overnight as a high
pressure system settles in over the region. Another VFR cumulus
cloud field is expected to develop Thursday afternoon, with cloud
bases around 5kft and scattered in coverage. These clouds should
dissipate Thursday evening. Surface winds will be light, generally
less than 10 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/KLJ
AVIATION.......Kurimski