487
FXUS63 KGLD 270513
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1113 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday
  afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A shortwave upper level ridge will continue to build over the
area tonight. This ridge will keep a drier and more stable
airmass in place, and overall rain chances will be extremely
limited this afternoon through tonight. At most, an isolated
thunderstorm may move into one of our Colorado counties from the
Front Range around sunset, but the storms should be weakening
as temperatures cool with the loss of daytime heating and the
storms move into a drier and more stable environment. Any cloud
cover associated with a storm will dissipate by late this
evening, and the forecast calls for clear skies, light winds,
and mild temperatures tonight. Lows will be near average for
this time of year in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Although the shortwave upper level ridge will be the dominant
feature across the forecast area on Friday, there are
indications that weak low pressure area could form on the lee
side of the Rockies tomorrow. This low will induce the
development of a dry line, and this dry line could serve as a
focusing mechanism for some isolated convective activity in
the late afternoon hours. A review of model soundings for Friday
afternoon and evening indicate favorable conditions for both
large hail and damaging wind gusts from any severe storms that
form. However, the overall severe threat will remain limited as
available moisture is somewhat limited. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow due to the influence of the 500mb ridge axis
with readings climbing into the mid 90s. Any storms will quickly
dissipate after sunset, and a dry and clear night is anticipated
for Friday night. Lows will once again cool toward more normal
levels in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Saturday will be the hottest and driest day of the long term
forecast as the upper level ridge is in full control of the
area. Highs will climb into the upper 90s, a good 10 degrees
above average, as deep layer subsidence takes hold. Some low PoP
is in the forecast for the northern third of the forecast area,
but confidence is lower than average of seeing any rain actually
develop as the greatest forcing will remain well north of the
area in the Dakotas. Saturday night will once again see clear
skies and near average low.

A much more amplified upper level pattern will begin to develop
on Sunday and will remain in place through next Thursday. The
end result will be a strong longwave ridge axis across the
western third of the CONUS and a broad longwave trough east of
the Mississippi River. This will place the region beneath a
persistent and deep northwest flow regime throughout the
entirety of next week. A series of weak upper level impulses
rounding the top of the ridge will slide through the area next
week, and this impulses will provide enough upper level forcing
to promote some scattered convective activity each day. The
convection will be very diurnal in nature and will tend to fire
up along the dry line over eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. The storms will then spread
east through the evening hours before they dissipate closer to
midnight. Although the threat of severe storms is low, there
could be a few strong to severe storms each day with hail and
gusty winds being the main threat.  Temperatures will be
slightly cooler as the northwest flow pattern takes hold with
readings closer to average in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be
near to slightly warmer than average with readings ranging from
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with mostly clear skies. Winds are forecast to remain
generally from the south/southeast at 10-15 kts, with gusts up
to 25-30 kts between 17-01Z. There is a 20% chance for showers
and storms between 21-06Z, though they are currently forecast to
be fairly scattered and generally west of the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grigsby
LONG TERM...Grigsby
AVIATION...KAK