490
FXUS63 KGLD 121048
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
448 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is possible through roughly 10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT
  across the area. Dense Fog Advisory in effect through the
  previously mentioned time.

- Low confidence for severe weather occurring during the late
  afternoon/evening over the west half of the forecast area.

- High rainfall chances through the overnight hours with a
  slight risk for excessive rainfall.

- Rain chances continue through most of the week and
  temperatures gradually warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 447 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

On Monday the ridge axis will begin to cross into the lee side of
the Rockies while a surface high moves southeast over the Tri-State
area through the afternoon hours. Dense fog will continue to impact
the area this morning with a Dense Fog Advisory in place through 10
AM MDT/11 AM CDT. Stratus may linger out east into the early
afternoon. Behind the surface high a near surface trough will move
over Colorado during the late afternoon-evening hours bringing
increase moisture and more precipitation chances up to 80% tomorrow
night. The best chances (50-80%) for showers and storms is west of a
Benkelman to Colby to Scott City line. The HRRR shows weaker shear
with up to 40 kts of 0-6 km and ~20 kts of 0-3 km shear. Sounding
profiles favor a long, skinny shape with up to ~1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and Sfc-based CAPE. A cluster of storms should move in from
the west along and south of I-70 between 5-7 PM MDT exiting the
eastern portions of the area by noon Tuesday morning. Storm
motions are quite slow around 10 mph, so a decent amount of rain
could fall as the severe potential decreases and the scattered
showers become more of a cluster. WPC has placed the western
half of the area in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall given
the amount of rain that could fall on already damp soils from
yesterday`s storms. Severe chances are currently low given the
time of day storms will move, but a few instances of up to 60
mph gusts and half dollar hail will be possible primarily along
and west of a Goodland to Tribune line. Should any isolated
storms develop ahead of the main cluster we could see up to 2"
diameter hail. Another round of patchy to dense fog is possible
after midnight tonight for the entire area. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the 80s with overnight lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

On Tuesday the upper ridge axis will move across the Tri-State area
while a lee surface trough slides south over the Central High
Plains. The overnight storm/shower activity should exit the eastern
half of the area by noon tomorrow as mentioned previously. Some
residual moisture may stick around that area while more low level
moisture increases over the Rockies and Colorado Plains during
the afternoon and evening. During the late afternoon to early
evening hours, scattered clusters of storms are expected to
develop over Eastern Colorado, moving east into the forecast
area. The severe threat for any storms is low with a marginal
risk west of a McCook to Colby to Leoti line. Severe parameters
are currently forecast to be similar to today with a bit better
low level shear as you move into NW Kansas. Gusts to 60 mph and
large hail will be possible until midnight (12 AM MDT) then
decrease as we move into the more stable environment over our
eastern half of the area. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the
upper 70s to 80s for highs and the upper 50s to 60s once again
for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Troughing looks to continue on Wednesday as we watch another wave
move off of the Front Range. Will need to again monitor for fog
development on Wednesday morning as moisture will remain in
place. It currently looks to be warmer with highs near normal
(assuming the fog can lift during the morning hours) with highs
currently forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s. As mentioned
above will be watching another wave resulting in another round
of showers and storms for the area. Severe weather is possible
with mainly damaging winds along the main cluster. If a discrete
storm can form ahead of the cluster then 2+ inch hail will
again be possible as upper level winds remain very strong around
60-70 knots (confidence in that scenario is currently low).
Heavy to torrential rain in slow moving storms is again possible
with slow corfidi vectors in place.

Thursday looks to see a weak front move across the area which will
be the focus for additional showers and storms during the afternoon
hours. High temperatures again look to be in the mid 80s across the
area but could be lower if the front moves through quicker which
some ensemble members do suggest to be a possibility.

Late week and into the weekend looks to see ridging redevelop across
the Intermountain west. This will lead to warmer temperatures
with highs in the 90s returning but depending on the positioning
of the ridge will continue to lead to daily showers and storms.
The heat may be short lived however as some signals for another
strong trough to move through the northern Plains/Great Lakes
region ushering in some cooler air again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A few thunderstorms will continue around KGLD terminal through
the overnight hours, before LLJ veers and forcing weakens after
09z. While IFR conditions appear likely once storms dissipate
and low levels stabilize, outflow and a few gravity waves seem
to be keeping low levels mixed just enough for areas to clear
out briefly. Think this break will be short lived and expect IFR
conditions to develop rapidly after 08z, impacting both TAF
sites. Reduced flight categories will continue through the
morning hours before ceilings begin to lift after 18Z. While
another round of precipitation is expected tomorrow night,
confidence too low in impacts to include at end of TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JRM