899
FXUS63 KGLD 241218
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
618 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog will lift by ~8-9 am MDT / 9-10 am CDT this
  morning.

- Thunderstorms anticipated to develop in the lee of the
  Colorado Front Range this afternoon will track eastward into
  northeast CO and adjacent KS and NE border counties late this
  afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are possible,
  mainly between 5-9 pm MDT. 65 mph wind gusts and a few
  instances of large hail appear to be the primary hazards.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon
  and evening, generally north of Interstate 70.

- Storm chances decrease towards the end of the week with
  temperatures warming to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Current observations show decaying showers around the area
close to the midnight hours as instability continues to lower,
likely ending the storm threat for tonight. The flow in the
lowest few thousand feet remains from the east/southeast,
advecting more moisture into the area. Cloud levels have been
dropping, and will likely lower to a few hundred feet by
daybreak. With this, it should also become moist enough for fog
to develop across the area. Visibility is forecast to generally
remain above one mile, though some pockets of dense fog with
visibility around a quarter of a mile could occur between the
5am to 9am MT timeframe.

For today, the cloud cover is forecast to slowly break during
the day with daytime heating. The cold front just south of the
area is forecast to change into a warm front and pull north into
the area as a weak surface low develops near the Colorado
border. With the warm air advection and potential breaks in the
clouds, temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer tomorrow,
generally reaching the low to mid 80s. Winds are forecast to
shift from out of the south at 15-20 mph, though those north of
Highway 36 may remain a bit more from the east at 10-15 mph
depending on how far north the warm front advances.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, chances for storms
are forecast to return to the area. There are two potential
areas of storms development and initiation. The earliest batch
would be a long the warm front. If enough of the cloud cover can
break and instability develop along the warm front, storms
should fire up. The current forecast area is roughly between
I-70 and Highway 34. These storms could be severe, mainly with a
large hail threat up to a couple inches in diameter. Though,
forecast soundings look fairly similar to recent events which
would suggest that most would produce large amounts of small
hail, especially if the storms develop and move off the frontal
boundary. Damaging wind gusts and maybe a tornado would also be
possible, but have much lower chances. The second area of
initiation is in East-Central Colorado, west of the area.
Similar to many events recently, storms are forecast to fire up
out of the area over the higher terrain in East- Central
Colorado and progress east. Depending on where the surface low
sets up and how far the warm/stationary frontal boundary extends
west, storm development may be fairly widespread. The question
is what happens to it as it moves east. Most guidance is
currently suggesting that the storms outrun the forcing (both
the surface boundary and upper support provided by an advancing
shortwave), leading to storms gusting and falling apart.
However, any cluster that stay with its outflow will be capable
of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes
become more of a concern if the surface boundary is over Eastern
Colorado and a storm moves along the boundary. Main window for
severe weather occurring if it does is between about 4pm- 12am
MT, with storm and severe chances lowering from west to east
across the area.

Tonight, storms are forecast to weaken through the night as
instability begins to lower. That being said, the surface
boundary, surface low, and upper shortwave may persist and
influence the area long enough for storms to last until 3am and
showers until daybreak the next morning. With the cloud cover
and low level moisture lingering, temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 60s and potentially even the low 70s. Patchy dense
fog could form again late in the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Southwest flow aloft continues on Wednesday with another
shortwave trough coming out of Colorado. Models vary on the
surface pattern and available moisture/instability. GFS has more
of a southwesterly wind which dries out the low levels
resulting in only weak instability, while the NAM and ECMWF show
less downsloping wind and more instability. While some
convection will undoubtedly initiate with the shortwave trough
aloft, there is low confidence in coverage and severe risk. SPC
has a marginal risk north of Interstate 70 where a modest
increase in deep layer shear may slightly favor more organized
updrafts. Storms move east and out of the area overnight. High
temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be in the 80s and 90s and
lows in the 50s and 60s.

Upper flow turns more zonal on Thursday but there is another
shortwave trough with the axis over the forecast area during the
afternoon. GFS is again considerably drier with a westerly
surface wind compared to the NAM and ECMWF which show easterly
winds and more available instability. Deep layer shear ranges
from 10-20kts south of Interstate 70 to 20-30kts north. Storm
chances will be best in eastern areas due to the location of the
upper trough at the time of peak heating and initiation. There
may be a marginal risk for a severe storm, but confidence is
low. Storms should move east and out of the area earlier than
usual, perhaps by early to mid evening. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the 60s.

Friday and Saturday will see a sprawling ridge build across the
southern CONUS. The main storm track will be across the
northern plains. Convection will either not occur at all or be
very isolated and tied to diurnal heating in the afternoon.
Saturday appears to be the better day for convective chances
with perhaps a weak shortwave topping the ridge and lee trough
in Colorado focusing initiation.

Sunday and Monday the ridge amplifies over the northern Rockies
with weak northwest flow developing downstream over the plains.
A cold front is forecast to move through sometime on Sunday. If
it moves through fast enough may see post frontal upslope
Sunday afternoon and convection initiating on the higher terrain
to the west and moving across Sunday night. Models suggest the
front will be far south on Monday and the local area may be too
stable for convection. However, confidence in those kind of
details is low at this time range.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday under the
ridge with highs in the mid to upper 90s, then cooling slightly
behind the cold front Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s
and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

GLD: VLIFR or LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings
and/or fog will gradually lift and improve to VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. SE-SSE winds at 8-13 knots will veer
to the S and increase to ~20-30 knots by late afternoon. S winds
will decrease to ~15 knots shortly after sunset this evening.
While thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening (~23-03Z).. activity may largely be confined north and
northwest of the Goodland terminal. Gusty/erratic winds can be
expected in vicinity of any storms.

MCK: IFR conditions associated with low ceilings will
gradually lift and improve to VFR by late morning or early
afternoon. ENE winds at 5-10 knots will veer to the ESE late
this morning and early this afternoon.. further veering to the
SE-SSE and increasing to ~20-25 knots by late afternoon. SSE
winds are anticipated to decrease to ~15 knots shortly after
sunset this evening. While thunderstorms are possible this
evening (~02-06Z).. activity may largely be confined west and
northwest of the McCook terminal. Gusty/erratic winds can be
expected in vicinity of any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent