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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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490 FXUS63 KGLD 121048 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 448 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog is possible through roughly 10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT across the area. Dense Fog Advisory in effect through the previously mentioned time. - Low confidence for severe weather occurring during the late afternoon/evening over the west half of the forecast area. - High rainfall chances through the overnight hours with a slight risk for excessive rainfall. - Rain chances continue through most of the week and temperatures gradually warm. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 447 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 On Monday the ridge axis will begin to cross into the lee side of the Rockies while a surface high moves southeast over the Tri-State area through the afternoon hours. Dense fog will continue to impact the area this morning with a Dense Fog Advisory in place through 10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT. Stratus may linger out east into the early afternoon. Behind the surface high a near surface trough will move over Colorado during the late afternoon-evening hours bringing increase moisture and more precipitation chances up to 80% tomorrow night. The best chances (50-80%) for showers and storms is west of a Benkelman to Colby to Scott City line. The HRRR shows weaker shear with up to 40 kts of 0-6 km and ~20 kts of 0-3 km shear. Sounding profiles favor a long, skinny shape with up to ~1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and Sfc-based CAPE. A cluster of storms should move in from the west along and south of I-70 between 5-7 PM MDT exiting the eastern portions of the area by noon Tuesday morning. Storm motions are quite slow around 10 mph, so a decent amount of rain could fall as the severe potential decreases and the scattered showers become more of a cluster. WPC has placed the western half of the area in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall given the amount of rain that could fall on already damp soils from yesterday`s storms. Severe chances are currently low given the time of day storms will move, but a few instances of up to 60 mph gusts and half dollar hail will be possible primarily along and west of a Goodland to Tribune line. Should any isolated storms develop ahead of the main cluster we could see up to 2" diameter hail. Another round of patchy to dense fog is possible after midnight tonight for the entire area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Tuesday the upper ridge axis will move across the Tri-State area while a lee surface trough slides south over the Central High Plains. The overnight storm/shower activity should exit the eastern half of the area by noon tomorrow as mentioned previously. Some residual moisture may stick around that area while more low level moisture increases over the Rockies and Colorado Plains during the afternoon and evening. During the late afternoon to early evening hours, scattered clusters of storms are expected to develop over Eastern Colorado, moving east into the forecast area. The severe threat for any storms is low with a marginal risk west of a McCook to Colby to Leoti line. Severe parameters are currently forecast to be similar to today with a bit better low level shear as you move into NW Kansas. Gusts to 60 mph and large hail will be possible until midnight (12 AM MDT) then decrease as we move into the more stable environment over our eastern half of the area. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to 80s for highs and the upper 50s to 60s once again for overnight lows. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 207 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Troughing looks to continue on Wednesday as we watch another wave move off of the Front Range. Will need to again monitor for fog development on Wednesday morning as moisture will remain in place. It currently looks to be warmer with highs near normal (assuming the fog can lift during the morning hours) with highs currently forecasted in the mid 80s to low 90s. As mentioned above will be watching another wave resulting in another round of showers and storms for the area. Severe weather is possible with mainly damaging winds along the main cluster. If a discrete storm can form ahead of the cluster then 2+ inch hail will again be possible as upper level winds remain very strong around 60-70 knots (confidence in that scenario is currently low). Heavy to torrential rain in slow moving storms is again possible with slow corfidi vectors in place. Thursday looks to see a weak front move across the area which will be the focus for additional showers and storms during the afternoon hours. High temperatures again look to be in the mid 80s across the area but could be lower if the front moves through quicker which some ensemble members do suggest to be a possibility. Late week and into the weekend looks to see ridging redevelop across the Intermountain west. This will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the 90s returning but depending on the positioning of the ridge will continue to lead to daily showers and storms. The heat may be short lived however as some signals for another strong trough to move through the northern Plains/Great Lakes region ushering in some cooler air again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1105 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A few thunderstorms will continue around KGLD terminal through the overnight hours, before LLJ veers and forcing weakens after 09z. While IFR conditions appear likely once storms dissipate and low levels stabilize, outflow and a few gravity waves seem to be keeping low levels mixed just enough for areas to clear out briefly. Think this break will be short lived and expect IFR conditions to develop rapidly after 08z, impacting both TAF sites. Reduced flight categories will continue through the morning hours before ceilings begin to lift after 18Z. While another round of precipitation is expected tomorrow night, confidence too low in impacts to include at end of TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...JRM