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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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896 FXUS63 KGLD 131735 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1135 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog is persisting into the mid-day, and may linger for most of the day in the eastern CWA. - Another round of strong to severe storms this evening currently favoring north of I-70; torrential rainfall may again lead to flooding. - Rain chances continue through most of the week and temperatures gradually warm. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 MCS continues to move off to the east with very heavy rainfall rates associated with it as PWATS are in the 2 inch range across eastern portions of the CWA. Behind the departing MCS am watching for stratus and fog development as winds are forecast to become lighter and a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s remains. Have added in patchy fog for the majority of the area along with some areas of fog wording where rainfall has just ended or will be ending. Throughout the rest of the day fog/stratus is forecast to burn off west to east across the area but may be a bit of a slow process given how moist the atmosphere is; the RAP suggests that fog/stratus will linger all day resulting in temperatures in the 70s for highs. Opted to not go quite that aggressive as at the minimum some peaks of sunshine should occur allowing for some warming. Further back to the west SSW winds look to bring some upper 80s to low 90s to SW portions of the area. The focus as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours will be another potential for thunderstorm development. Shortwave looks to be a bit more stout than the one that brought Monday`s storms. Main cluster looks to move off of the Front Range and impacting the NW portion of the CWA with the potential for winds up to 70,large hail and torrential rainfall. These storms will be efficient rainfall producers with PWATS of 1.8 to 2 across the area. As we head through the evening, and overnight instability actually increases along with lapse rates which does bring some concern for overnight hail events up to 2 inches in diameter. Elongated hodographs will also be in place, however with the nocturnal inversion in place should help keep storms mainly elevated. However low dew point depressions should help to keep storms surface based, especially along the leading edge of the cluster. Mean wind parallel to the line will be in place but if we can get any north/south oriented segments that a QLCS tornado can not be completely ruled out. For location, did mention above that the NW portion of the area looks to be most at risk for the flooding and severe potential; this is true according to CAMS. The one outlier is the RAP that has an additional 700mb FGEN boundary and a LLJ that curves around the area which may bring a southward trend to the area of storms that may let it set up closer to the I-70 corridor. Trends through the day will need to be watched to see if this occurs. I did contemplate a Flood Watch again but due to the uncertainty of exactly where it will set up and the fact that the NW portion of the area missed on the rainfall today made me reconsider this. Some training concern does exist as well with the low level jet feeding into the southern portion the the new MCS which may locally increase the flooding potential. Those in flood prone areas will need to be mindful of flooding however this evening and overnight. Storms are forecast to be out of the area by sunrise Wednesday as another potential for fog development looks to return to the area. Signal is pretty consistent for this occur so have added in patchy fog into the forecast. Similar to Tuesday some guidance suggests that fog and stratus will linger across eastern portions of the area throughout the day so have trended temperatures down some. Yet another potential for showers and storms off of the Front Range during the evening hours. Not entirely convinced with the severe potential for this round as the better environment looks to be east of the Highway 27 corridor. The question will be if something is able to form in that environment to fully take advantage of it. If something were to form then large hail greater than 2 inches would be the main threat. With the cluster from the Front Range it is plausible that severe winds would be possible as it moves into the "more prime" environment but still confidence is low on that. Thursday, ridging looks to set up across the Intermountain west. A surface high also nudges down from the northern Plains allowing winds to become more northerly and keeping the area from fully feeling the warmth from the ridge. Another weak wave looks to move off of the mountains bringing showers and storm potential yet again across the area but at this time severe weather looks unlikely due to weaker forcing and weak overall wind field. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The weekend and into early next week is forecast to largely be dominated by an upper level ridge. As such, the area is more likely to see near to above average temperatures and low, daily chance for precipitation. Temperatures are currently forecast to be around 90 with the consensus for 850mb temps around the mid to upper 20`s. There are suggestions that temperatures could be warmer in the mid 90`s from the GFS which could be possible if the ridge amplifies and strengthens as some ensemble guidance hints it may do. In regards to the precipitation, the pattern suggests that most days will see the low chances storm potential during the afternoon and evening from Colorado. With the ridge axis forecast to be overhead, chances of storms making it across the area are not great. Similar to recent weeks with patterns like this, marginal severe weather is possible with no greater signal for storm/severe potential yet. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 For KGLD, MVFR overcast ceilings look to persist until around 21Z. We`ll have a few hours of VFR conditions until the storms start rolling in from the south and west. These storms will bring in MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings and rain. If one of the stronger cells of the storm move through the TAF area, IFR visibilities will occur. Storms look to move out of the immediate KGLD area by 6Z, but MVFR ceilings will linger through the remainder of the period. KMCK will continue with bouts of LIFR ceilings and IFR fog that will become more broken with MVFR conditions through around 21Z. A few hours of MVFR conditions are forecast after 21Z, but watching satellite, the break may not occur, so we`ll be watching that closely. Around 2Z, storms will start moving in from the southwest, as will LIFR ceilings. Expected LIFR to VLIFR conditions to prevail from 3Z until 16Z. Fog behind the storms is expected to form, potentially down to M 1/4 SM around 12Z. Conditions look to quickly improve near the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...CA