896
FXUS63 KGLD 131735
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is persisting into the mid-day, and may linger for most of
  the day in the eastern CWA.

- Another round of strong to severe storms this evening
  currently favoring north of I-70; torrential rainfall may
  again lead to flooding.

- Rain chances continue through most of the week and
  temperatures gradually warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

MCS continues to move off to the east with very heavy rainfall rates
associated with it as PWATS are in the 2 inch range across eastern
portions of the CWA. Behind the departing MCS am watching for
stratus and fog development as winds are forecast to become lighter
and a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
remains. Have added in patchy fog for the majority of the area
along with some areas of fog wording where rainfall has just
ended or will be ending.

Throughout the rest of the day fog/stratus is forecast to burn off
west to east across the area but may be a bit of a slow process
given how moist the atmosphere is; the RAP suggests that
fog/stratus will linger all day resulting in temperatures in
the 70s for highs. Opted to not go quite that aggressive as at
the minimum some peaks of sunshine should occur allowing for
some warming. Further back to the west SSW winds look to bring
some upper 80s to low 90s to SW portions of the area.

The focus as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours will
be another potential for thunderstorm development. Shortwave looks
to be a bit more stout than the one that brought Monday`s storms.
Main cluster looks to move off of the Front Range and impacting the
NW portion of the CWA with the potential for winds up to 70,large
hail and torrential rainfall. These storms will be efficient
rainfall producers with PWATS of 1.8 to 2 across the area. As we
head through the evening, and overnight instability actually
increases along with lapse rates which does bring some concern for
overnight hail events up to 2 inches in diameter. Elongated
hodographs will also be in place, however with the nocturnal
inversion in place should help keep storms mainly elevated. However
low dew point depressions should help to keep storms surface based,
especially along the leading edge of the cluster. Mean wind parallel
to the line will be in place but if we can get any north/south
oriented segments that a QLCS tornado can not be completely ruled
out.

For location, did mention above that the NW portion of the area
looks to be most at risk for the flooding and severe potential;
this is true according to CAMS. The one outlier is the RAP that
has an additional 700mb FGEN boundary and a LLJ that curves
around the area which may bring a southward trend to the area of
storms that may let it set up closer to the I-70 corridor.
Trends through the day will need to be watched to see if this
occurs. I did contemplate a Flood Watch again but due to the
uncertainty of exactly where it will set up and the fact that
the NW portion of the area missed on the rainfall today made me
reconsider this. Some training concern does exist as well with
the low level jet feeding into the southern portion the the new
MCS which may locally increase the flooding potential. Those in
flood prone areas will need to be mindful of flooding however
this evening and overnight.

Storms are forecast to be out of the area by sunrise Wednesday as
another potential for fog development looks to return to the
area. Signal is pretty consistent for this occur so have added
in patchy fog into the forecast. Similar to Tuesday some
guidance suggests that fog and stratus will linger across
eastern portions of the area throughout the day so have trended
temperatures down some.

Yet another potential for showers and storms off of the Front Range
during the evening hours. Not entirely convinced with the
severe potential for this round as the better environment looks
to be east of the Highway 27 corridor. The question will be if
something is able to form in that environment to fully take
advantage of it. If something were to form then large hail
greater than 2 inches would be the main threat. With the cluster
from the Front Range it is plausible that severe winds would be
possible as it moves into the "more prime" environment but
still confidence is low on that.

Thursday, ridging looks to set up across the Intermountain west. A
surface high also nudges down from the northern Plains allowing
winds to become more northerly and keeping the area from fully
feeling the warmth from the ridge. Another weak wave looks to move
off of the mountains bringing showers and storm potential yet
again across the area but at this time severe weather looks
unlikely due to weaker forcing and weak overall wind field.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The weekend and into early next week is forecast to largely be
dominated by an upper level ridge. As such, the area is more likely
to see near to above average temperatures and low, daily chance for
precipitation. Temperatures are currently forecast to be around 90
with the consensus for 850mb temps around the mid to upper 20`s.
There are suggestions that temperatures could be warmer in the mid
90`s from the GFS which could be possible if the ridge amplifies and
strengthens as some ensemble guidance hints it may do. In regards to
the precipitation, the pattern suggests that most days will see the
low chances storm potential during the afternoon and evening from
Colorado. With the ridge axis forecast to be overhead, chances of
storms making it across the area are not great. Similar to recent
weeks with patterns like this, marginal severe weather is possible
with no greater signal for storm/severe potential yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For KGLD, MVFR overcast ceilings look to persist until around
21Z. We`ll have a few hours of VFR conditions until the storms
start rolling in from the south and west. These storms will
bring in MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings and rain. If one of
the stronger cells of the storm move through the TAF area, IFR
visibilities will occur. Storms look to move out of the
immediate KGLD area by 6Z, but MVFR ceilings will linger
through the remainder of the period.

KMCK will continue with bouts of LIFR ceilings and IFR fog that
will become more broken with MVFR conditions through around
21Z. A few hours of MVFR conditions are forecast after 21Z, but
watching satellite, the break may not occur, so we`ll be
watching that closely. Around 2Z, storms will start moving in
from the southwest, as will LIFR ceilings. Expected LIFR to
VLIFR conditions to prevail from 3Z until 16Z. Fog behind the
storms is expected to form, potentially down to M 1/4 SM around
12Z. Conditions look to quickly improve near the end of the
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA