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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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159 FXUS63 KGLD 140801 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 201 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms this evening currently favoring north of I-70; all hazards are possible, including flooding. - The weekend and early next week are forecast to see lower precipitation chances and high temperatures return into the 90`s and maybe the 100`s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1159 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Dense cloud cover is persisting throughout most of the Tri- State area, but southwesterly winds are slowly clearing it out. Central portions of the CWA can expect some direct sunlight in the afternoon, but the far northeastern CWA will likely remain cloudy all day. Jumping right into the severe thunderstorm threat today, it appears we will have two separate forcing mechanisms firing off the storms that will eventually merge into one. Nearly all CAMs are showing a very similar development this evening with timing and specific parameters being slightly different between the models. As a result, confidence is fairly high regarding the early storm track. The area that looks to fire off first will be in the south-central or southwestern CWA, starting around 0-1Z. The 850mb LLJ looks to spark a few (2-5) isolated storms that will move to the northeast. Looking at 16Z HRRR and 12Z NAMNEST sounding for the south-central CWA at 2Z, all hazards will be possible. Effective inflow layer, 0-1 km, and 0-3km shear are around 25 kts and EBWD is around 45 kts. PWATS are 1.5+ inches and MLCAPE is around 2650 J/kg. If these storms are able to form free of any competing updrafts and not cluster together, hail up to 2 inches would be possible, as would a tornado or two. The hail threat will be severely limited by the 16,000-18,000 foot moist melting layer, but that increases the potential for torrential rainfall. Storm motion looks to be around 35+ kts and these look to be isolated cells or clusters, so the threat for training storms causing flash flooding is low. These storms will likely (90% confidence) be ingested by the the second wave of storms from the east around 4Z. The second wave of storms will be more widespread and look to form to the west of the CWA and move east-northeast into the CWA. These storms will be forced by a lee low ejecting off of the Rockies. These storms will be in more of a linear formation. These storms look to enter the western CWA around 1-2Z, absorb the first storms around 4Z, and proceed across the northern half of the CWA. The storms look to last all night, but the best time for severe weather to occur from this second wave will be between 3-7Z. As far as hazards, 70 MPH winds, 1 inch hail, and a brief QLCS tornado will all be possible. A sounding from the 16Z HRRR and 12Z NAMNEST in northern Yuma county for 3Z show around 1,600 J/kg of MLCAPE, PWATS near 1.6 inches, and EBWD around 30 kts. 0-3 shear looks to be around 20-25 kts from the south, which is nearly parallel to the orientation of the storm, lowering confidence on the QLCS tornado potential. The motion of these storms is concerning for flooding reasons. While the system as a whole will be progressing to the east- northeast, the downshear motion will be from the southwest, the orientation of the line itself. This causes a setup for training storms to occur, potentially leading to flash flooding. Much like the first wave of storms, the melting height looks to be above 15,000 feet and very moist, allowing very efficient hail melting and warm weather precipitation processes to occur, increasing the potential for flooding. Following the storms, the winds are expected to be light and variable, which will allow fog to form, much like the past few days. Currently, the northeastern 1/3 of the CWA looks to get to worst fog, likely dropping down to less than a mile of visibility. This fog will limit overnight cooling and keep temperatures in the 60s across the CWA. Tomorrow morning, as stratus and fog linger throughout much of the CWA, a mid-level ridge will begin moving into the area. This will work to lift the fog and stratus from west to east throughout the day. High temperatures will warm into the upper 80s. Tomorrow afternoon and early evening, another shortwave will eject off the Rockies and give us another wave of storms across the CWA. We could see some severe weather with these storms, with wind being the primary threat and hail as a secondary threat. Storms look to enter the northwestern CWA around 0Z and move southeast through the CWA, exiting around 14Z. Low temperatures tomorrow night look to cool into the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 159 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The long term continues to look warmer and a bit drier with an upper ridge still forecast to be over the area for most of the period. With the ridge over the area, 850mb temps are forecast to rise into the upper 20`s, if not the lower 30`s celsius. This would support temperatures in the 90`s and lower 100`s with cloud cover over the area looking less likely in the newest guidance. These temperatures would likely linger through Mon/Tues with no major change in the forecast pattern hinted at. We`ll still need to watch for daily storm chances, though chances should be fairly low (<20%) and any severe potential remain isolated and/or unorganized. Going into the mid-week, there`s a split in what the upper pattern does. Some guidance suggests that the upper ridge will remain with an omega pattern over the CONUS, keeping us in a hot and relatively dry pattern. Temperatures could reach the mid 100`s if the ridge amplifies as much as some ensemble members suggest. Other members are suggesting that an upper low near the Great Lakes region would swing through the Plains, similar to a few events in the past few weeks and months. In this scenario, temperatures would be cooler with highs in the 80`s likely, or even cooler if persistent cloud cover returned. We could also see an organized severe event Tues/Wed in this scenario along with overall higher precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 MCS is currently moving across KMCK where showers and storms look to continue through the next few hours along with a gradually decreasing severe threat. As this moves out will need to watch for stratus and fog through at least mid morning if not perhaps longer. As for KGLD a hit or miss shower or storms remains possible through 11Z but with a very low severe threat. Low stratus is already developing with LIFR potential increasing as well. A little more skeptical on fog potential for KGLD as winds look to turn more westerly so didnt get to aggressive with the fog. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...Trigg