148
FXUS63 KGLD 150809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some lull in precipitation chances over the weekend, but at
  least low chances returning by late in the weekend and next
  week.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently
  favoring above to well above average temperatures to begin the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Another shortwave trough will come out of Colorado tonight
around the base of the main upper system in southern Canada.
Instability will be rather limited as some slightly drier air
works in due to low level northwest winds. Nonetheless,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will reach far northeast
Colorado this evening and remnant showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours for areas
south of Interstate 70. Model QPF is much lower compared to
previous days and generally less than a tenth of inch is
expected. Any severe threat will be limited to locally gusty
winds with perhaps a rogue gust up to 60 mph mainly this evening
near any stronger storm that may develop, but overall severe
threat appears to be low. Temperatures will drop into the 60s
for lows.

Thursday will see a ridge amplify into northern Rockies with
more of zonal flow undercutting it across the central Rockies
and adjacent plains. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Another weak wave comes through Thursday night
with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Colorado
during the evening and the rest of the area overnight as
isentropic lift develops on the 315 k surface. Instability
remains very limited through Thursday evening, though there is
some uptick in MUCAPE overnight in the Colorado/Kansas border
area which may be sufficient for a low risk of small hail/gusty
winds. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into
Friday morning and afternoon with the isentropic lift only
slowly diminishing. Precipitation amounts continue to be very
light with less than a tenth of an inch expected. An upper
ridge starts to build over the area from the west late Friday
afternoon through Friday night, which should end the
precipitation chances. High temperatures will be around 90 and
lows Friday night in the 60s.

The ridge strengthens on Saturday over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico. Proximity to the ridge will result in dry
conditions and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the long term period, the main focus remains the presence of an
upper ridge over the Rockies and High Plains. For Sunday and Monday,
the forecast continues to favor temperatures in the 90`s with
relatively low precipitation chances in the afternoon and evening,
favoring Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties. Lower 90`s are more
likely if mid to upper cloud cover is present, whereas mid to upper
90`s is more likely if the drier and less cloudy solutions verify.

The mid part of the week (Tue-Thur) remains fairly uncertain. Both
deterministic and ensemble guidance are split on if the ridge axis
shifts over the area and amplifies, or if an upper low will move
through the Plains/Great Lakes and weaken the ridge`s influence over
the area. If the ridge axis holds, ensemble high end temperatures
favor 100`s for most of the area, especially if cloud cover remains
limited. Storm potential would also remain fairly low and limited to
western portions of the area. If the upper low does swing through
the Plains, then temperatures would likely be cooler in the 80`s or
maybe even 70`s. Precipitation chances would also increased with a
more organized storm event likely. Currently favoring the ridging
scenario as that has had the most continuity recently, though not
quite ready to warm temperatures too much since cloud cover may
still be a factor, even if the upper low is farther away.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will continue through
21z, veering to the north at similar speeds through 22z. After
23z, winds will be light and variable (basically veering to the
northeast, east and southeast at speeds under 6kts). Regarding
precipitation chances, cant rule out a light rain shower from
taf issuance through about 10z. They could produce erratic wind
gusts up to 35kts or so.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northwest wind around 10kts at taf issuance will continue
through 01z before becoming light and variable. No precipitation
is expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99