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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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148 FXUS63 KGLD 150809 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 209 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some lull in precipitation chances over the weekend, but at least low chances returning by late in the weekend and next week. - Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently favoring above to well above average temperatures to begin the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Another shortwave trough will come out of Colorado tonight around the base of the main upper system in southern Canada. Instability will be rather limited as some slightly drier air works in due to low level northwest winds. Nonetheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms will reach far northeast Colorado this evening and remnant showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours for areas south of Interstate 70. Model QPF is much lower compared to previous days and generally less than a tenth of inch is expected. Any severe threat will be limited to locally gusty winds with perhaps a rogue gust up to 60 mph mainly this evening near any stronger storm that may develop, but overall severe threat appears to be low. Temperatures will drop into the 60s for lows. Thursday will see a ridge amplify into northern Rockies with more of zonal flow undercutting it across the central Rockies and adjacent plains. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Another weak wave comes through Thursday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Colorado during the evening and the rest of the area overnight as isentropic lift develops on the 315 k surface. Instability remains very limited through Thursday evening, though there is some uptick in MUCAPE overnight in the Colorado/Kansas border area which may be sufficient for a low risk of small hail/gusty winds. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into Friday morning and afternoon with the isentropic lift only slowly diminishing. Precipitation amounts continue to be very light with less than a tenth of an inch expected. An upper ridge starts to build over the area from the west late Friday afternoon through Friday night, which should end the precipitation chances. High temperatures will be around 90 and lows Friday night in the 60s. The ridge strengthens on Saturday over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Proximity to the ridge will result in dry conditions and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 207 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 For the long term period, the main focus remains the presence of an upper ridge over the Rockies and High Plains. For Sunday and Monday, the forecast continues to favor temperatures in the 90`s with relatively low precipitation chances in the afternoon and evening, favoring Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties. Lower 90`s are more likely if mid to upper cloud cover is present, whereas mid to upper 90`s is more likely if the drier and less cloudy solutions verify. The mid part of the week (Tue-Thur) remains fairly uncertain. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are split on if the ridge axis shifts over the area and amplifies, or if an upper low will move through the Plains/Great Lakes and weaken the ridge`s influence over the area. If the ridge axis holds, ensemble high end temperatures favor 100`s for most of the area, especially if cloud cover remains limited. Storm potential would also remain fairly low and limited to western portions of the area. If the upper low does swing through the Plains, then temperatures would likely be cooler in the 80`s or maybe even 70`s. Precipitation chances would also increased with a more organized storm event likely. Currently favoring the ridging scenario as that has had the most continuity recently, though not quite ready to warm temperatures too much since cloud cover may still be a factor, even if the upper low is farther away. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 940 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 21z, veering to the north at similar speeds through 22z. After 23z, winds will be light and variable (basically veering to the northeast, east and southeast at speeds under 6kts). Regarding precipitation chances, cant rule out a light rain shower from taf issuance through about 10z. They could produce erratic wind gusts up to 35kts or so. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 01z before becoming light and variable. No precipitation is expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99