035
FXUS63 KGLD 180853
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of near to above average temperatures across the area
  today depending on cloud cover.

- Thunderstorms are possible each day in the afternoon and
  evening hours through Tuesday. Storms will generally favor
  Eastern Colorado and adjacent area. A few severe storms are
  possible, though overall chances remain low.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could
  favor above average temperatures to begin the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The upper pattern the next two days still features a ridge
amplifying with the axis swinging through the area. While this would
generally keep us hot and dry, it`s the near surface moisture and
surface low that will dictate much of our weather over the next 48
hours.

Surface obs continue to southeast flow with dewpoints remaining or
climbing into the upper 60`s to lower 70`s for the eastern half of
the area. Soundings suggest that the air a few hundred to thousand
feet up remains relatively dry with more southerly/southwesterly
flow. For how the rest of today shapes up, it is a race to see if
the low levels can saturate and begin to produce cloud cover and fog
before heating begins to mix everything out. If the fog and cloud
cover develops, temperatures will be lower in the 80`s (likely north
of Highway 36). If the cloud cover doesn`t develop or burns off in
the morning, then most of the area will warm into the 90`s with
100`s still possible south of Highway 40. With no convection in the
region during the early morning hours, the morning and early
afternoon hours should not see precipitation. The mid afternoon and
beyond will have chances for storms with the surface low pressure
creating multiple surface convergence boundaries and a shortwave
trying to move through the area. Locales favored for storms will be
Eastern Colorado and locales near Highway 96 (chances around 40%).
The main question for the rest of the area is if the cloud cover is
present and helps keep the air more stable. If so, storms will
struggle to move into and develop in most of NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska. Otherwise, will need to keep an eye out for outflows that
could allow storms to progress further east/north or develop in the
rest of the area. Most severe parameters are similar to what we saw
yesterday and for most of our marginal chances, so any storm could
produce severe weather, though any occurrence should be fairly
isolated in coverage. Large hail up to golf balls and wind gusts up
to 65 mph would be the main threats.

Tonight, any storm activity should taper off by midnight, though
cloud cover will likely linger across most of the area. Lows should
be in the mid to upper 60`s again.

Tomorrow, cloud cover should slowly clear through the day while
higher surface pressure swings through the area. With the slightly
cooler air mass and cloud cover, highs are forecast to be in the
80`s. Similar to recent days, there will be another chance for
storms to develop in Eastern Colorado off the higher terrain and
push east into the area. As storms try and move east, they should
struggle to hold together with the weak forcing from the shortwave
forecast to dissipate and the overall subsidence under the ridge. A
few severe storms are possible initially with hazards similar to
today.

Tomorrow night, storms may linger through the night depending on how
much moisture remains and if there are outflow boundaries from prior
convection. Otherwise cloud cover should slowly burn off with lows
in the 60`s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The upper pattern changes very little through the period with
a ridge extending from the Four Corners northeast into the
central Plains. Temperatures will be above normal in this
pattern with highs mainly in the 90s and lows in the 60s. A few
triple digit highs will be possible south of Interstate 70.
Precipitation chances will be tied to disturbances rotating
around the ridge. Convection will develop in the afternoon along
the Front Range and then move northeast across the plains
during the night. As a result, best chances for precipitation
will be in western areas as storms slowly dissipate as they move
east across the area. Instability and shear appear to be
sufficient for occasional marginal to slight chances for severe
storms, again best chances in northeast Colorado/adjacent
counties in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light
(5-10 knot) ESE to SE winds will prevail overnight. Winds will
likely become variable during the late morning and early
afternoon.. as a weak/broad lee cyclone in CO progresses
eastward over portions of western KS. Winds are expected to
shift to the E or NE and increase to 15-25 knots during the late
afternoon.. as the aforementioned lee cyclone shifts southward
to the OK Panhandle. Wind speed and direction may, in part, be a
function of convection anticipated to develop along and north
of the I-80 corridor in Nebraska late tonight/Sun morning. With
this in mind, confidence in wind speed/direction is below
average.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light
(6-12 knot) E winds will prevail through Sunday morning..
increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Wind
speed and direction may, in part, be a function of convection
anticipated to develop along and north of the I-80 corridor in
Nebraska late tonight/Sun morning. With this in mind, confidence
in wind speed/direction is below average.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

With temperatures expected to climb around 100F Sunday afternoon for
areas along/south of Highway 40, some locales may be close to record
highs. Here is the site with potential to come close to/tie a record
for Sunday, August 18th:

Tribune, KS 102F in 1962

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV
CLIMATE...JN