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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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515 FXUS63 KGLD 160807 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 207 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for severe weather this morning and afternoon. - Drier and warmer going into the weekend. - Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could favor above average temperatures to begin the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 For the short term period, the main focus is on the severe weather threat today. While severe weather chances are low overall, they may be a bit more impactful with chances during the morning hours and a chance for significant severe weather this afternoon. Otherwise, benign conditions are forecast for the rest of the period. Current observations show an upper ridge beginning to amplify over the Western Rockies while mid-level moisture moves over the area from the northwest flow. Guidance is suggesting that a 700mb shortwave is currently moving towards the area from the west. With the ongoing showers and storms, this seems likely and will help continue to generate showers and storms through the morning hours. Most storms will be sub-severe, especially through sunrise with current MUCAPE below 500 J/KG and lapse rates generally 7 C/KM or less. Around and after sunrise, MUCAPE could increase to 1000 J/KG with effective shear around 45 kts, allowing a small chance for a stronger storm to develop. If it holds together long enough, hail around 1 to 1.5 inches would be possible. As the storms move on, they will be in an environment with DCAPE greater than 1000 J/KG, downshear vectors around 50kts and upper cloud level winds around 50 kts. This could allow for a couple gusts to 60-65 mph, especially if storms ride along an outflow. Once the morning storms move on and dissipate (as the 700mb wave dissipates), skies should clear and temperatures warm into the low 90`s with 850mb temps in the upper 20`s C. Winds should remain relatively light around 10 mph or less with a broad pressure gradient, though the direction may vary at times as lower pressure tries to form in Eastern Colorado. This afternoon, there`s an 85% chance that skies remain clear and winds just slowly lower through the evening. However, if temperatures become warm enough and the cap erodes, a supercell (maybe two) could develop near the CO border near a weak surface convergence zone. If the supercell does develop, significant severe weather would be possible with MUCAPE around or greater than 2000 J/KG, 50-55 kts of effective shear, downshear vectors around 60kts and upper storm winds around 70kts. Currently messaging hail up to 2.5 inches (mid level lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/KM) and wind gusts up to 75 mph. The storm would move southeast through the area through the late afternoon hours. This evening and into tonight, skies are forecast to be clear and winds lighten as the upper ridge axis continues to move closer to the area. Lows are forecast to drop to around 60. Tomorrow, sunny skies and warm temperatures in the low to mid 90`s are forecast with the ridge axis moving more over the Eastern Rockies and relatively dry air forecast to be over the area. There`s still a 10% chance for a shortwave to move through and produce some showers near the Tri-State border, but the weak forcing, broad subsidence, and lack of moisture really keep the chances low. Tomorrow evening and night, the low level flow is forecast to be from the southeast which will bring moisture to the area, but likely too late to produce storms with no forcing over the area. The moisture increase should keep lows a bit warmer in the mid 60`s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Both the latest GFS and ECMWF continue to show an amplified 500mb ridge over the central Plains during the extended period. Late afternoon/evening shortwave passages each day combined with lee-side troughing to our west could allow for rw/trw chances w/ the focus in the evening should they occur. While there will be a 30-40% chance to start off on Sunday night, chances decreases to the 15-20% range by the middle of next week. Track of the shortwaves do change by then due to models differing in placement of ridge resulting in either west or southwest flow aloft, combined with decent low level, above normal warmth could allow for less storm chances due to drier low levels. If this occurs, the better chances will be west closest to the lee-side trough, better instability. The latest NBM pops do continue this trend in latest updated guidance. The latest GEFS 6-hr precip does show this as well with best chances in the Sun-Mon timeframe. For temps, looking for highs each day to range mainly in the 90s. This will be dependent on cloud cover over the area. The trend could be higher next week if precipitation does not develop. Overnight lows will range in the lower to mid 60s each night. Some locales in Colorado could even see the upper 50s. Again these numbers will be dependent on cloud cover from any evening/overnight storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to persist through the period. There is a chance for some showers and storms to move through the region tonight, hence the VCTS and TEMPO groups with showers. Coverage looks to be pretty spotty if any storms are able to form. KMCK has the better chance at seeing the storms impact their site, but both sites could see some showers or storms. If a storm moves over a site, visibilities would likely drop, but ceilings will likely remain high. The storms will linger into the mid to late morning tomorrow, but then clear skies are expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...CA