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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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212 FXUS63 KGLD 170313 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 913 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and warmer going into the weekend. A few storms cannot be ruled out during the aft-eve hours on Sat/Sun. Confidence is low w/regard to whether or not convection will even develop in the Goodland CWA. An isolated severe storm is possible, should storms develop. - Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could favor above average temperatures to begin the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with the exception in areas along/east of Highway 83 where psunny skies prevail along with lingering shower activity. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in the 80s with winds mainly light/ variable east due to proximity of surface ridge. In the west, southerly with gusts to 20 mph at times. For the short term period, the main wx threats for the region will focus on severe wx potential, as well as some patchy fog for eastern locales after 06z Saturday. For the remainder of this afternoon into this evening, a marginal risk for some isolated storms still remains for the CWA. With high pressure moving through the area, a boundary sitting over southern KS, and latest runs of the CAMs showing little to no activity, there look to a be very low chance supporting storms. Current SPC mesoscale analysis showing mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km and low level rates around 6-7 c/km for most of the CWA, along with KS/NE capped at this time with SBcin over the area, chances are very low. The only chance for storms to occur will be over eastern Colorado where little to no rainfall occur today. Instability is present, but does weaken going east. The other wx factor for tonight will be the potential for patchy fog for eastern portions of the CWA between 06z-13z Saturday. Ample low level moisture from morning rains, combined with a E/NE flow overnight will create some patchy fog conditions, especially east of Highway 83. Going into this weekend, the 500mb ridge currently over the Rockies moves east into the Plains region. Lee-side trough develops over the Front Range and shifts east into the CO/KS border area late in the day into the early evening. NAM 3km sounding around 01z Sunday does show the potential for some severe storms to develop as DCape around 1500-1600 j/kg, and MUCape nearing 2000-2100 j/kg. SPC does carry a marginal risk for severe w/ wind and hail threats. Sounding does show some low level inversion potential due to the expected warm and dry day, so some elevated storm potential is possible if overcome. Overall the potential looks to stay close to or just east of the lee- side trough. For the Sunday/Sunday night timeframe, upper ridge does shift a bit more eastward allowing for a shortwave to ridge over the top of the ridge and into the CWA. The aforementioned surface trough does settle south of the area during the day as the shortwave passes. Guidance bring initial storms into Colorado, but looks to overspread the CWA going into the evening hours. East-southeast surface flow will feed in ample low level upslope moisture into the area. Storm initation could bring about elevated convection as another above normal hot day is expected. DCape from soundings could allow for another wind threat, but hail can`t be ruled out as well. For temps, highs across the region this weekend will range from the upper 80s into the mid 90s. Hottest areas will reside W/SW. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s into the lower 60s. A bit warmer this weekend with lower to mid 60s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Long term guidance, specifically the GFS/ECMWF, continue to show the main feature for the extended period to be an amplified 500mb ridge over the central Plains. There are some differences in each model as to the placement of the ridge, but overall a W/SW flow aloft is expected as a result. Shortwaves working up along the west side of the ridge each day make an attempt to push east through the amplification. Highest pop chances favor areas west of Highway 25, due to lee-side troughing setting up each day. Guidance has late afternoon/evening chances for rw/trw, with Monday`s and Thursday`s system seeing the biggest push east into the area. With the area seeing mainly S/SW flow at the surface, downslope warming will bring about above normal temperature potential, especially from Tuesday onward. It will be this surface flow combined with the upper level ridge that will keep a 15-20% chance for storms most of the days, with up to a 30-40% chance for storms Monday evening and again Thursday evening. For temps, highs for much of next week will range above normal in the 90s, with the exception of next Monday, which will have a range from the mid 80s north through the lower 90s south. Lows during this time will range from the lower 60s west, into the mid and upper 60s east. Warmest overnight areas will be those locales along/east of Highway 83. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out invof the CO-KS-NE border late Saturday aft-eve (a few hours on either side of ~00Z Sun), confidence in thunderstorm development is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Light SSE or variable winds will prevail overnight.. becoming S at 10-15 knots early Saturday afternoon (18-20Z). 10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. MCK: MVFR visbys assoc/w patchy fog cannot be ruled out an hour or two on either side of sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and clear skies are anticipated to rule through the TAF period. Light/variable winds will prevail through Saturday morning, becoming SSE-S at 10-15 knots Sat afternoon (~20-22Z). 10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Vincent