531
FXUS63 KGLD 162318
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and warmer going into the weekend. A few storms cannot
  be ruled out during the aft-eve hours on Sat/Sun. Confidence
  is low w/regard to whether or not convection will even develop
  in the Goodland CWA. An isolated severe storm is possible,
  should storms develop.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could
  favor above average temperatures to begin the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with
the exception in areas along/east of Highway 83 where psunny
skies prevail along with lingering shower activity. Temperatures
as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in the 80s with winds
mainly light/ variable east due to proximity of surface ridge.
In the west, southerly with gusts to 20 mph at times.

For the short term period, the main wx threats for the region
will focus on severe wx potential, as well as some patchy fog
for eastern locales after 06z Saturday.

For the remainder of this afternoon into this evening, a
marginal risk for some isolated storms still remains for the
CWA. With high pressure moving through the area, a boundary
sitting over southern KS, and latest runs of the CAMs showing
little to no activity, there look to a be very low chance
supporting storms. Current SPC mesoscale analysis showing mid
level lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km and low level rates around
6-7 c/km for most of the CWA, along with KS/NE capped at this
time with SBcin over the area, chances are very low. The only
chance for storms to occur will be over eastern Colorado where
little to no rainfall occur today. Instability is present, but
does weaken going east.

The other wx factor for tonight will be the potential for
patchy fog for eastern portions of the CWA between 06z-13z
Saturday. Ample low level moisture from morning rains, combined
with a E/NE flow overnight will create some patchy fog
conditions, especially east of Highway 83.

Going into this weekend, the 500mb ridge currently over the
Rockies moves east into the Plains region. Lee-side trough
develops over the Front Range and shifts east into the CO/KS
border area late in the day into the early evening. NAM 3km
sounding around 01z Sunday does show the potential for some
severe storms to develop as DCape around 1500-1600 j/kg, and
MUCape nearing 2000-2100 j/kg. SPC does carry a marginal risk
for severe w/ wind and hail threats. Sounding does show some low
level inversion potential due to the expected warm and dry day,
so some elevated storm potential is possible if overcome.
Overall the potential looks to stay close to or just east of the
lee- side trough.

For the Sunday/Sunday night timeframe, upper ridge does shift a
bit more eastward allowing for a shortwave to ridge over the
top of the ridge and into the CWA. The aforementioned surface
trough does settle south of the area during the day as the
shortwave passes. Guidance bring initial storms into Colorado,
but looks to overspread the CWA going into the evening hours.
East-southeast surface flow will feed in ample low level upslope
moisture into the area. Storm initation could bring about
elevated convection as another above normal hot day is expected.
DCape from soundings could allow for another wind threat, but
hail can`t be ruled out as well.

For temps, highs across the region this weekend will range from
the upper 80s into the mid 90s. Hottest areas will reside W/SW.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s into the
lower 60s. A bit warmer this weekend with lower to mid 60s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Long term guidance, specifically the GFS/ECMWF, continue to
show the main feature for the extended period to be an amplified
500mb ridge over the central Plains. There are some differences
in each model as to the placement of the ridge, but overall a
W/SW flow aloft is expected as a result. Shortwaves working up
along the west side of the ridge each day make an attempt to
push east through the amplification. Highest pop chances favor
areas west of Highway 25, due to lee-side troughing setting up
each day. Guidance has late afternoon/evening chances for
rw/trw, with Monday`s and Thursday`s system seeing the biggest
push east into the area.

With the area seeing mainly S/SW flow at the surface, downslope
warming will bring about above normal temperature potential,
especially from Tuesday onward. It will be this surface flow
combined with the upper level ridge that will keep a 15-20%
chance for storms most of the days, with up to a 30-40% chance
for storms Monday evening and again Thursday evening.

For temps, highs for much of next week will range above normal
in the 90s, with the exception of next Monday, which will have a
range from the mid 80s north through the lower 90s south. Lows
during this time will range from the lower 60s west, into the
mid and upper 60s east. Warmest overnight areas will be those
locales along/east of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies are anticipated to prevail
through the TAF period. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot
entirely be ruled out over portions of eastern CO and far
western KS late Saturday afternoon (near the end of the 00Z TAF
period).. confidence in thunderstorm development is low enough
to preclude explicit mention. Light (5-10 knot) SSE or variable
winds will prevail this evening and overnight.. becoming S at
10-15 knots early Saturday afternoon (18-20Z).


MCK: MVFR visbys assoc/w patchy fog cannot be ruled out an hour
or two on either side of sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and clear skies are anticipated to prevail
through the TAF period. Light (~5 knot) and variable winds will
prevail this evening through Saturday morning, becoming SSE-S at
10-15 knots Sat afternoon (~20-22Z).. near the end of the 00Z
TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent