837
FXUS63 KGLD 171124
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and relatively dry conditions over the weekend. Both days
  have low chances for storms. If storms develop, a severe storm
  or two is possible, favoring counties along the Colorado
  border.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could
  favor above average temperatures to begin the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the short term period, warm and mostly dry days are forecast.
Will need to see how long fog and cloud cover can linger tomorrow
and if it will have an impact.

Current observations show clear skies across the area with weak
southerly winds. Skies should stay clear across the area with the
upper ridge axis shifting over the area. The only exception may be
some fog this morning in northeastern parts of the area if
temperatures can cool closer to dewpoints. With sunny skies today
and the ridge axis shifting over, temperatures should warm into the
mid 90`s today unless more moisture remains in the area than
forecast (similar to yesterday). If more moisture does linger over
the area, not only will temperatures probably be a few degrees
cooler, but storm chances will increase. The current forecast brings
in some drier air from the west to mix and lower dewpoints across
the western half of the area. If not enough dry air moves in, then
storms will be more likely to form off the higher terrain in Eastern
Colorado with weak surface convergence forecast along the low
pressure center. A severe storm or two would be possible then with
hail up to golf ball (40kt shear, CAPE around 2000 J/KG, and mid
level lapse rates around 8 C/KM) and wind gusts up to 65 mph DCAPE
greater than 1200 J/KG, little support from higher level winds).
However, the current forecast keeps the area clear with storms
staying west and north of the area. This evening and tonight would
then see a mix of clouds and clear skies with the storms outside of
the area. The low level flow is forecast to become more easterly as
the night goes on and allow moisture to move back into the area.
With this, fog and low stratus clouds could develop. Between the
cloud cover and increasing dewpoints, lows tomorrow are forecast to
be in the mid to upper 60`s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to shift its axis a little
closer to the area and amplify a bit. This generally would have led
to an increase in forecast highs for the day. However, the
forecasted moisture leading to potential fog and cloud cover has put
a damper on temperatures. For locales that linger in cloud cover and
fog for a majority of the day (currently favoring NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska), highs may only warm into the 80`s including the low 80`s.
If the fog/cloud cover doesn`t form or breaks early, temperatures
across the area would then be in the mid to upper 90`s with some
100`s possible south of US 40. In regard to storm potential, the
lingering surface low pressure and northwest flow aloft will provide
some forcing for storms to develop tomorrow. The favored area is
Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties during the afternoon and
evening hours. As for easterly progression, the subsidence aloft
will provide some dampening, but the big contributor will be the
early cloud cover. The more areas that have their temperatures
impacted by cloud cover, the more of the area that will be
relatively stable and inhibit storm progression. There are some
suggestions of earlier convection east of the area which could send
some outflow boundaries into the area and allow a few quick storms
to develop, but that`s a little difficult to determine at this
point. Severe weather will be possible and currently looks to be our
usual summer setup, Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties favored
with one to two severe storms possible. Threats look to just be wind
and hail, though magnitude varies depending on which guidance you
look at. Tomorrow night, fog will be possible again with continued
easterly low level flow. Lows will likely be in the mid to upper
60`s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Upper ridge will extend from the Four Corners region northeast
into the central Plains. This orientation will tap into
monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge and bring daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances will be
weighted in western areas as storms develop near the Front Range
in the afternoon and then move into the adjacent plains in the
late afternoon and evening hours. Dry line may also be a factor
for location and development of thunderstorms later in the
week. Instability and shear should be sufficient for a marginal
to slight severe risk most days, although the shear does
decrease towards the end of the week. Temperatures will be above
normal with highs generally in the 90s and lows in the 60s,
with some triple digits possible south of Interstate 70 by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the period.
Near surface winds are forecast to generally be out of the
southeast at 10 mph or less (short of an occasional gust to
17-20kts). Otherwise, the only potential hazard is some fog and
low stratus towards the end of the period. Currently don`t have
enough confidence to put in so TAFs are one liners for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK