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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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723 FXUS63 KGLD 170854 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 254 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and relatively dry conditions over the weekend. Both days have low chances for storms. If storms develop, a severe storm or two is possible, favoring counties along the Colorado border. - Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could favor above average temperatures to begin the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 For the short term period, warm and mostly dry days are forecast. Will need to see how long fog and cloud cover can linger tomorrow and if it will have an impact. Current observations show clear skies across the area with weak southerly winds. Skies should stay clear across the area with the upper ridge axis shifting over the area. The only exception may be some fog this morning in northeastern parts of the area if temperatures can cool closer to dewpoints. With sunny skies today and the ridge axis shifting over, temperatures should warm into the mid 90`s today unless more moisture remains in the area than forecast (similar to yesterday). If more moisture does linger over the area, not only will temperatures probably be a few degrees cooler, but storm chances will increase. The current forecast brings in some drier air from the west to mix and lower dewpoints across the western half of the area. If not enough dry air moves in, then storms will be more likely to form off the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with weak surface convergence forecast along the low pressure center. A severe storm or two would be possible then with hail up to golf ball (40kt shear, CAPE around 2000 J/KG, and mid level lapse rates around 8 C/KM) and wind gusts up to 65 mph DCAPE greater than 1200 J/KG, little support from higher level winds). However, the current forecast keeps the area clear with storms staying west and north of the area. This evening and tonight would then see a mix of clouds and clear skies with the storms outside of the area. The low level flow is forecast to become more easterly as the night goes on and allow moisture to move back into the area. With this, fog and low stratus clouds could develop. Between the cloud cover and increasing dewpoints, lows tomorrow are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60`s. Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to shift its axis a little closer to the area and amplify a bit. This generally would have led to an increase in forecast highs for the day. However, the forecasted moisture leading to potential fog and cloud cover has put a damper on temperatures. For locales that linger in cloud cover and fog for a majority of the day (currently favoring NW Kansas and SW Nebraska), highs may only warm into the 80`s including the low 80`s. If the fog/cloud cover doesn`t form or breaks early, temperatures across the area would then be in the mid to upper 90`s with some 100`s possible south of US 40. In regard to storm potential, the lingering surface low pressure and northwest flow aloft will provide some forcing for storms to develop tomorrow. The favored area is Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties during the afternoon and evening hours. As for easterly progression, the subsidence aloft will provide some dampening, but the big contributor will be the early cloud cover. The more areas that have their temperatures impacted by cloud cover, the more of the area that will be relatively stable and inhibit storm progression. There are some suggestions of earlier convection east of the area which could send some outflow boundaries into the area and allow a few quick storms to develop, but that`s a little difficult to determine at this point. Severe weather will be possible and currently looks to be our usual summer setup, Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties favored with one to two severe storms possible. Threats look to just be wind and hail, though magnitude varies depending on which guidance you look at. Tomorrow night, fog will be possible again with continued easterly low level flow. Lows will likely be in the mid to upper 60`s again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Long term guidance, specifically the GFS/ECMWF, continue to show the main feature for the extended period to be an amplified 500mb ridge over the central Plains. There are some differences in each model as to the placement of the ridge, but overall a W/SW flow aloft is expected as a result. Shortwaves working up along the west side of the ridge each day make an attempt to push east through the amplification. Highest pop chances favor areas west of Highway 25, due to lee-side troughing setting up each day. Guidance has late afternoon/evening chances for rw/trw, with Monday`s and Thursday`s system seeing the biggest push east into the area. With the area seeing mainly S/SW flow at the surface, downslope warming will bring about above normal temperature potential, especially from Tuesday onward. It will be this surface flow combined with the upper level ridge that will keep a 15-20% chance for storms most of the days, with up to a 30-40% chance for storms Monday evening and again Thursday evening. For temps, highs for much of next week will range above normal in the 90s, with the exception of next Monday, which will have a range from the mid 80s north through the lower 90s south. Lows during this time will range from the lower 60s west, into the mid and upper 60s east. Warmest overnight areas will be those locales along/east of Highway 83. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out invof the CO-KS-NE border late Saturday aft-eve (a few hours on either side of ~00Z Sun), confidence in thunderstorm development is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Light SSE or variable winds will prevail overnight.. becoming S at 10-15 knots early Saturday afternoon (18-20Z). 10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. MCK: MVFR visbys assoc/w patchy fog cannot be ruled out an hour or two on either side of sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and clear skies are anticipated to rule through the TAF period. Light/variable winds will prevail through Saturday morning, becoming SSE-S at 10-15 knots Sat afternoon (~20-22Z). 10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BV