723
FXUS63 KGLD 170854
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
254 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and relatively dry conditions over the weekend. Both days
  have low chances for storms. If storms develop, a severe storm
  or two is possible, favoring counties along the Colorado
  border.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could
  favor above average temperatures to begin the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the short term period, warm and mostly dry days are forecast.
Will need to see how long fog and cloud cover can linger tomorrow
and if it will have an impact.

Current observations show clear skies across the area with weak
southerly winds. Skies should stay clear across the area with the
upper ridge axis shifting over the area. The only exception may be
some fog this morning in northeastern parts of the area if
temperatures can cool closer to dewpoints. With sunny skies today
and the ridge axis shifting over, temperatures should warm into the
mid 90`s today unless more moisture remains in the area than
forecast (similar to yesterday). If more moisture does linger over
the area, not only will temperatures probably be a few degrees
cooler, but storm chances will increase. The current forecast brings
in some drier air from the west to mix and lower dewpoints across
the western half of the area. If not enough dry air moves in, then
storms will be more likely to form off the higher terrain in Eastern
Colorado with weak surface convergence forecast along the low
pressure center. A severe storm or two would be possible then with
hail up to golf ball (40kt shear, CAPE around 2000 J/KG, and mid
level lapse rates around 8 C/KM) and wind gusts up to 65 mph DCAPE
greater than 1200 J/KG, little support from higher level winds).
However, the current forecast keeps the area clear with storms
staying west and north of the area. This evening and tonight would
then see a mix of clouds and clear skies with the storms outside of
the area. The low level flow is forecast to become more easterly as
the night goes on and allow moisture to move back into the area.
With this, fog and low stratus clouds could develop. Between the
cloud cover and increasing dewpoints, lows tomorrow are forecast to
be in the mid to upper 60`s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to shift its axis a little
closer to the area and amplify a bit. This generally would have led
to an increase in forecast highs for the day. However, the
forecasted moisture leading to potential fog and cloud cover has put
a damper on temperatures. For locales that linger in cloud cover and
fog for a majority of the day (currently favoring NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska), highs may only warm into the 80`s including the low 80`s.
If the fog/cloud cover doesn`t form or breaks early, temperatures
across the area would then be in the mid to upper 90`s with some
100`s possible south of US 40. In regard to storm potential, the
lingering surface low pressure and northwest flow aloft will provide
some forcing for storms to develop tomorrow. The favored area is
Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties during the afternoon and
evening hours. As for easterly progression, the subsidence aloft
will provide some dampening, but the big contributor will be the
early cloud cover. The more areas that have their temperatures
impacted by cloud cover, the more of the area that will be
relatively stable and inhibit storm progression. There are some
suggestions of earlier convection east of the area which could send
some outflow boundaries into the area and allow a few quick storms
to develop, but that`s a little difficult to determine at this
point. Severe weather will be possible and currently looks to be our
usual summer setup, Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties favored
with one to two severe storms possible. Threats look to just be wind
and hail, though magnitude varies depending on which guidance you
look at. Tomorrow night, fog will be possible again with continued
easterly low level flow. Lows will likely be in the mid to upper
60`s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Long term guidance, specifically the GFS/ECMWF, continue to
show the main feature for the extended period to be an amplified
500mb ridge over the central Plains. There are some differences
in each model as to the placement of the ridge, but overall a
W/SW flow aloft is expected as a result. Shortwaves working up
along the west side of the ridge each day make an attempt to
push east through the amplification. Highest pop chances favor
areas west of Highway 25, due to lee-side troughing setting up
each day. Guidance has late afternoon/evening chances for
rw/trw, with Monday`s and Thursday`s system seeing the biggest
push east into the area.

With the area seeing mainly S/SW flow at the surface, downslope
warming will bring about above normal temperature potential,
especially from Tuesday onward. It will be this surface flow
combined with the upper level ridge that will keep a 15-20%
chance for storms most of the days, with up to a 30-40% chance
for storms Monday evening and again Thursday evening.

For temps, highs for much of next week will range above normal
in the 90s, with the exception of next Monday, which will have a
range from the mid 80s north through the lower 90s south. Lows
during this time will range from the lower 60s west, into the
mid and upper 60s east. Warmest overnight areas will be those
locales along/east of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF
period. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out invof
the CO-KS-NE border late Saturday aft-eve (a few hours on either
side of ~00Z Sun), confidence in thunderstorm development is
low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF
issuance. Light SSE or variable winds will prevail overnight..
becoming S at 10-15 knots early Saturday afternoon (18-20Z).
10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through the
remainder of the TAF period.

MCK: MVFR visbys assoc/w patchy fog cannot be ruled out an hour
or two on either side of sunrise Saturday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and clear skies are anticipated to rule through
the TAF period. Light/variable winds will prevail through
Saturday morning, becoming SSE-S at 10-15 knots Sat afternoon
(~20-22Z). 10-15 knot S winds are expected to persist through
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BV