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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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317 FXUS63 KGLD 181122 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mix of near to above average temperatures across the area today depending on cloud cover. - Thunderstorms are possible each day in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday. Storms will generally favor Eastern Colorado and adjacent area. A few severe storms are possible, though overall chances remain low. - Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could favor above average temperatures to begin the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The upper pattern the next two days still features a ridge amplifying with the axis swinging through the area. While this would generally keep us hot and dry, it`s the near surface moisture and surface low that will dictate much of our weather over the next 48 hours. Surface obs continue to southeast flow with dewpoints remaining or climbing into the upper 60`s to lower 70`s for the eastern half of the area. Soundings suggest that the air a few hundred to thousand feet up remains relatively dry with more southerly/southwesterly flow. For how the rest of today shapes up, it is a race to see if the low levels can saturate and begin to produce cloud cover and fog before heating begins to mix everything out. If the fog and cloud cover develops, temperatures will be lower in the 80`s (likely north of Highway 36). If the cloud cover doesn`t develop or burns off in the morning, then most of the area will warm into the 90`s with 100`s still possible south of Highway 40. With no convection in the region during the early morning hours, the morning and early afternoon hours should not see precipitation. The mid afternoon and beyond will have chances for storms with the surface low pressure creating multiple surface convergence boundaries and a shortwave trying to move through the area. Locales favored for storms will be Eastern Colorado and locales near Highway 96 (chances around 40%). The main question for the rest of the area is if the cloud cover is present and helps keep the air more stable. If so, storms will struggle to move into and develop in most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Otherwise, will need to keep an eye out for outflows that could allow storms to progress further east/north or develop in the rest of the area. Most severe parameters are similar to what we saw yesterday and for most of our marginal chances, so any storm could produce severe weather, though any occurrence should be fairly isolated in coverage. Large hail up to golf balls and wind gusts up to 65 mph would be the main threats. Tonight, any storm activity should taper off by midnight, though cloud cover will likely linger across most of the area. Lows should be in the mid to upper 60`s again. Tomorrow, cloud cover should slowly clear through the day while higher surface pressure swings through the area. With the slightly cooler air mass and cloud cover, highs are forecast to be in the 80`s. Similar to recent days, there will be another chance for storms to develop in Eastern Colorado off the higher terrain and push east into the area. As storms try and move east, they should struggle to hold together with the weak forcing from the shortwave forecast to dissipate and the overall subsidence under the ridge. A few severe storms are possible initially with hazards similar to today. Tomorrow night, storms may linger through the night depending on how much moisture remains and if there are outflow boundaries from prior convection. Otherwise cloud cover should slowly burn off with lows in the 60`s again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The upper pattern changes very little through the period with a ridge extending from the Four Corners northeast into the central Plains. Temperatures will be above normal in this pattern with highs mainly in the 90s and lows in the 60s. A few triple digit highs will be possible south of Interstate 70. Precipitation chances will be tied to disturbances rotating around the ridge. Convection will develop in the afternoon along the Front Range and then move northeast across the plains during the night. As a result, best chances for precipitation will be in western areas as storms slowly dissipate as they move east across the area. Instability and shear appear to be sufficient for occasional marginal to slight chances for severe storms, again best chances in northeast Colorado/adjacent counties in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... Unfortunately, the aviation forecast is a little uncertain for the period as multiple outflows from storms in the region are forecast to move through. This could affect the fog and stratus currently over KMCK and allow for temporary VFR conditions. Otherwise, KMCK should see low ceilings through about 18Z. KGLD may see ceilings lower for a bit as the low cloud deck is one county away as of 5 am. However, even if the deck does move over, it should push back within a few hours. Later in the day, storms should generally avoid both terminals unless there is an outflow from prior convection that allows for pop up thunderstorms. Will also then need to watch for fog and low clouds again tonight depending on if storms move through. In short MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible through the morning, VFR forecast for the afternoon, and MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility possible at the end of the period. Keep an eye out for amendments. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 With temperatures expected to climb around 100F Sunday afternoon for areas along/south of Highway 40, some locales may be close to record highs. Here is the site with potential to come close to/tie a record for Sunday, August 18th: Tribune, KS 102F in 1962 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...KAK CLIMATE...JN