450
FXUS63 KGLD 180854
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
254 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week with
  a risk for severe storms each day through Friday.

- Temperatures remaining near normal through next week.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible through Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Northwest flow continues over the plains around a ridge near the
Four Corners. At the surface, south to southeast winds around
high pressure in the northern plains continues to advect
moisture into the area. Forcing for convection today is very
weak. If anything, there is a shortwave ridge coming through in
the northwest flow aloft. Convective initiation appears to be
tied to weak convergence at the surface near the Colorado and
Kansas border area which should result in isolated development
by mid afternoon. Better coverage will be to the the west where
upslope will be maximized into the Front Range and Palmer
Divide. Moderate instability and adequate deep layer shear will
result in another marginal risk day for mostly wind. Slow storm
motions will promote a locally heavy rain risk as well.
However, given the relatively sparse coverage expected, overall
severe risk is lower than previous days. High temperatures will
be in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

On Friday, there is a discernible shortwave trough topping the
ridge and coming down the high plains in the afternoon and
evening. This will result in much better precipitation chances,
especially Friday night. Instability and shear remain about the
same and support a marginal severe risk in the afternoon for
areas north of Interstate 70 where storms will initially
develop. Expect them to quickly merge into a cluster Friday
evening. NBM 90th percentile and max precipitation amounts
favor areas east of Highway 25 with locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 inch or more possible. Further west, higher
percentile QPF is generally between a half and 1 inch, lowest
amounts in Colorado. Precipitation will wind down after
midnight. High temperatures will be around 90 and low
temperatures Friday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models forecast an upper low to cut off Saturday over Iowa,
which is where most of the precipitation will be located.
Additional storms will develop along the Front Range with
upslope winds but little else in terms of forcing. The local
area will be in a relative precipitation minimum. Instability
will be weak and shear also lower than it has been at 20-30 kts.
While an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible,
mainly on the far eastern and far western fringes, most
locations will probably stay dry. Severe weather is not
anticipated. Highs will be in the mid 80s with lows Saturday
night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long term period remains favorable for nearly daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through the middle of next week. Little has
changed forecast wise with an upper to mid level high sitting over
the Great Basin while a trough moves over the Eastern CONUS. On
Sunday, cutoff low will sit along the Missouri River and extend WSW
towards the Tri-State area. This cutoff low and trough will slide
southeast slowly. A surface high is expected to develop over the
Northern Plains while the upper ridge noses over the Dakotas. This
will help nudge the moisture over the area until the ridge begins to
expand into the area around Tuesday. That said, the best chances for
widespread showers and storms will be Sunday afternoon and evening
with up to 45% chances. PoPs decrease to up to 40% on Monday, with
the best chances of 30-40% PoPs over East-Central Colorado. Chances
drop off to around 20% on Tuesday afternoon as the upper ridge
begins to expand over the area. Majority of Tuesday and all day
Wednesday, the area should be dry.

Temperatures will be comfortable for summer time highs throughout
the long term. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s. Tuesday will see highs
return to the low to mid 80s across the area with overnight lows in
the 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday will bring a return to the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance is forecast to continue
through 12z. From 13z through the rest of the taf period, a
southeast wind around 11kts is forecast, except in the 17z-02z
timeframe where sustained speeds of 12-15kts with gusts up to
25kts are likely. Similar to the past several days, weather
systems move through the area from the northwest. Given timing
and coverage of storm issues, confidence is too low that the
terminal would be impacted so no precipitation mention in this
forecast.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance is forecast to continue
through 13z. From 14z through the rest of the taf period,
southeast winds up to 11kts are expected except in the 22z-24z
timeframe where speeds pick up into the 12-15kt range with gusts
up to 25kts. Given timing and coverage of storm issues,
confidence is too low that the terminal would be impacted so no
precipitation mention in this forecast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99