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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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410 FXUS63 KGLD 190451 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1051 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms anticipated to develop along the CO Front Range and Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon will increase in coverage and track southeast across northwest Kansas during the late aft-eve. A few severe storms are possible, mainly between 5-10 pm MDT. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated instances of flash flooding appear to be the primary severe weather hazards. - Temperatures remaining near normal through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Across the region this afternoon, scattered diurnal cumulus around the area is providing mostly sunny to sunny conditions. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in the 80s, with a few locales around the 90F mark. Winds are southerly in the 5-15 mph range. The main weather concerns for the short term period will revolve around the chances for strong to severe storm potential this afternoon/evening and again on Friday. Looking aloft, the latest 500mb RAP40 analysis is showing a large dome of high pressure over the western portion of the country, providing NW flow over the area. There is a weak shortwave working along the eastern side of this ridge and is evident with the building cumulus/showers forming along the I-25 corridor. There is a surface trough over eastern Colorado, which will aid as a focal point for further storms later this afternoon into the evening. The latest CAMs (HRRR and NamNest) are showing storms approaching the western CWA towards the 22z-23z timeframe, moving south along the trough through the CWA. Based on current track of this convection, the bulk should stay along and south of I-70 going into this evening. Have taken a blend of these two models and carried 15- 20% pops from Highway 25, with highest chances in the southwest. There is a strong surface ridge to the east that should keep precip focused along the aforementioned track. Based on model soundings, inverted-v profiles show best threat is damaging winds, similar to the past few days. Hail threat not ruled out but it will not last as the convection could form a line after 06z Friday, strengthening the wind threat. Locally heavy downpours still possible as SPC surface analysis shows PW values 1-1.3" east of the colorado border. Better chances for precip do occur on Friday and Friday evening. A strong frontal boundary along with another shortwave will trigger a bigger chance (40-60%) for rw/trw area-wide. With temps going near normal for the day, dry low levels will give wind as main threat, with some hail possible. Rainfall could produce isolated issues with flooding. SPC does carry a marginal risk for locales west of Highway 25 today, with one area-wide for Friday. Overall QPF for the next 36 hours has a range from 0.25-1.00", with Friday seeing the bulk of this moisture. There is another shortwave moving through on Saturday with a 20-30 % chances for storms again. For temps, highs across the region on Friday will range in the lower to mid 90s and for Saturday, mid 80s are expected. Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Coolest night will occur on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show a trend for the extended period to begin another warmer and drier stretch. The amplified 500mb ridge over the west is expected eastward more into the rockies through the upcoming week w/ the ridge axis extending towards the eastern Rockies, but overall a northerly flow aloft. East of this, the cutoff 500/700 mb low over Iowa does eventually phase back into the broad trough over the east- northeast and shift east slightly. At the surface, low pressure over the Rockies will have an extended front east into the CWA for Sunday and Monday. A westward progression ensues for the ridge to the east. The movement of the low/front Sun-Mon, combined with the upper support shifting east a bit by midweek, will have 20-40% chances for rw/trw slowly degrade westward in tandem with the low/front. Instability over the area decreases as will w/ the shift west, but can`t rule out a few strong/isolated severe storms near the front Sun-Mon. What will occur for the area is an increasing temperature trend. 850 mb temps start of in the +20c to +25c range Sun-Mon, but increase into the +29c to +32c range by Thursday afternoon. For temps, looking for highs on Sunday and Monday to range in the upper 70s into the mid 80s. Warmest temperatures east of the Colorado border. Going into Tuesday, warmer with mid to upper 80s expected. Midweek, upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with lower to mid 90s on Thursday. Lows for Sunday and Monday nights will range in the mid to upper 50s, warmest east of Highway 25. Thereafter, upper 50s west through the mid 60s east are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period, with winds from the S at 7-14 knots. Thunderstorms anticipated to develop along the Colorado Front Range and Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon (18-21Z) will increase in coverage and track southeastward across northwest Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. Both terminals may be affected near the end of the TAF period (~00-06Z Sat). Gusty/ erratic winds can be expected invof any storms. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Vincent