128
FXUS63 KGLD 190703
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
103 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms anticipated to develop along the CO Front Range
  and Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon will increase in
  coverage and track southeast across northwest Kansas during
  the late aft-eve. A few severe storms are possible, mainly
  between 5-10 pm MDT. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated
  instances of flash flooding appear to be the primary severe
  weather hazards.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures are forecast next
  week along with low chance, daily thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Across the region this afternoon, scattered diurnal cumulus
around the area is providing mostly sunny to sunny conditions.
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in the 80s,
with a few locales around the 90F mark. Winds are southerly in
the 5-15 mph range.

The main weather concerns for the short term period will
revolve around the chances for strong to severe storm potential
this afternoon/evening and again on Friday.

Looking aloft, the latest 500mb RAP40 analysis is showing a
large dome of high pressure over the western portion of the
country, providing NW flow over the area. There is a weak
shortwave working along the eastern side of this ridge and is
evident with the building cumulus/showers forming along the I-25
corridor. There is a surface trough over eastern Colorado,
which will aid as a focal point for further storms later this
afternoon into the evening.

The latest CAMs (HRRR and NamNest) are showing storms
approaching the western CWA towards the 22z-23z timeframe,
moving south along the trough through the CWA. Based on current
track of this convection, the bulk should stay along and south
of I-70 going into this evening. Have taken a blend of these two
models and carried 15- 20% pops from Highway 25, with highest
chances in the southwest. There is a strong surface ridge to the
east that should keep precip focused along the aforementioned
track. Based on model soundings, inverted-v profiles show best
threat is damaging winds, similar to the past few days. Hail
threat not ruled out but it will not last as the convection
could form a line after 06z Friday, strengthening the wind
threat. Locally heavy downpours still possible as SPC surface
analysis shows PW values 1-1.3" east of the colorado border.

Better chances for precip do occur on Friday and Friday
evening. A strong frontal boundary along with another shortwave
will trigger a bigger chance (40-60%) for rw/trw area-wide. With
temps going near normal for the day, dry low levels will give
wind as main threat, with some hail possible. Rainfall could
produce isolated issues with flooding.

SPC does carry a marginal risk for locales west of Highway 25
today, with one area-wide for Friday. Overall QPF for the next
36 hours has a range from 0.25-1.00", with Friday seeing the
bulk of this moisture. There is another shortwave moving through
on Saturday with a 20-30 % chances for storms again.

For temps, highs across the region on Friday will range in the
lower to mid 90s and for Saturday, mid 80s are expected.
Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Coolest
night will occur on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For next week, the pattern will largely be characterized by upper
ridging over the Western CONUS and troughing over the Great Lakes
region. The main variance in the pattern looks to come from a cut-
off low over the mid-west early in the week and then another
potential trough axis late in the week.

For Mon-Tue, highs are forecast to be in the 80`s as the cut-off low
is forecast to be over MO/IA. With this, the upper ridging is
forecast to keep more to the west, limiting how much warm air moves
into the area. Some cloud cover will also be likely with moisture
over the area and the presence of the upper feature. Ensemble
guidance shows little variation with the placement and timing, so
confidence is fairly high in this part of the forecast.

For Wed-Fri, the cut-off low is forecast to rejoin the flow. From
here, the questions become does another trough axis swing through
the Great Lakes region and bring a disturbance through and when does
the next trough from the northwest swing through. In the absence of
troughing, the ridging in the west should begin to influence more of
the area and bring warmer temperatures in the 90`s or low 100`s by
the end of the week. Otherwise, temperatures may remain more mild
than forecast in the 80`s or around 90. Precipitation chances would
also increase with the advancement of one of the troughs through the
area.

With conditions forecast to be fairly similar to this week and prior
weeks, precipitation chances through the period are forecast to be
around 10-30%. Storms would likely be isolated to scattered and
develop during the afternoon and evening hours with the continued
northwest flow. Again, the exception to this is towards the end of
the week if a trough axis can swing through from either the Great
Lakes region or the northwest. Severe weather will likely remain
isolated and marginal through much of the week unless a more
organized system can development (mainly end of the week).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
period, with winds from the S at 7-14 knots. Thunderstorms
anticipated to develop along the Colorado Front Range and
Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon (18-21Z) will
increase in coverage and track southeastward across northwest
Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. Both terminals may
be affected near the end of the TAF period (~00-06Z Sat). Gusty/
erratic winds can be expected invof any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BV